649
FXUS61 KRNK 071741
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
141 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast Discussion Updated.

Aviation Forecast Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer than average temperatures again this week.

2) Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible
later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Warmer than average temperatures again this week.

Enjoy the conditions today as we can expect another warm period for
this week. Similar to the start of September, a large mid-level
ridge over the Great Plains will move eastward and bring warmer and
humid conditions to the southeastern CONUS and the Mid-Atlantic. The
good news is that it won`t be nearly as hot and Heat Advisories are
very unlikely. The bad news is it will still be unseasonably warm
with high temperatures in the mid-80s to upper 90s by Thursday
afternoon. Thursday is currently forecast to be the warmest of the
week and the high temperatures will gradually rise each day until
then. A cold front is forecast to approach the region towards this
weekend which may be able to bring temperatures down a little.

Key Message 2: Another round of showers and thunderstorms possible
later in the week.

A surface high pressure system will keep conditions dry for the
first half of this work week before a cold front brings another
round of precipitation by Thursday. The timing of the front`s
passage is a little uncertain and adds a monkey wrench into the
forecast. Since Thursday will be the warmest of the week, it may be
the most unstable and the front`s passage could coincide with
favorable timing for severe weather. The front also looks to bring
favorable wind shear conditions (25-35 knots) as its associated
500mb trough moves through the region. Model guidance has the
southeastern ridge breaking up into two small pieces with one
remaining over the southeast and the other in the southwest CONUS.
This results in a trough covering the gap between the mid-level
highs and some models have vorticity and a small shortwave making
its way around the southeastern ridge and northeastward towards the
Mid-Altantic. This too will have downstream effects on which parts
of the forecast region will receive precipitation and could delay
the front`s passage. For the time being, the severe threat looks to
be low with precipitation chances possible Thursday through
Sunday. One element of the forecast that has greater confidence
is the increase of moisture and PWATs by the weekend. With PWAT
values approaching into the 1.50-2.00 inch range, the concern
for heavy rainfall rates and flooding is present during the
front`s passage. So far, the upslope nature of the storms that
will likely accompany the front place the mountains of WV and
southwest VA at the greatest risk. Nevertheless, because of the
timing conditions, this forecast will likely need several
updates until the event`s arrival.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions for all terminals for the rest of the day once the
low level clouds leave KBLF. It will be a partly cloudy day for
most of the area with light winds generally from the east.
Overnight fog will likely bring KBCB and KLWB to LIFR due to
very low cloud ceilings and visibilities. Low level clouds
(<3000 ft) are also possible at KBLF before sunrise but
confidence in fog for this terminal is low given persistent
light winds. Once the sun rises and the fog evaporates, VFR
skies will return to all airports for Tuesday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Dry conditions will likely keep all terminals at VFR outside of
overnight fog for the usual terminals until a cold front arrives by
Thursday. There is still some uncertainty on the timing of the cold
front and how quickly it will pass through, so there could be
multiple days of showers and thunderstorms possible and at least
MVFR skies for every terminal as a result.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG