Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
308 FXUS61 KRNK 171042 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 642 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Storm chances today are low, with greater chances coming on Friday and through the weekend. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms today, continuing daily into next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered afternoon/evening showers/storms today, continuing daily into next week. Pockets of river valley fog this morning under mostly clear skies. Will see any fog dissipate an hour or two after sunrise. The upper ridge of high pressure over the TN valley is forecast to weaken and retrograde farther west and become centered over the Ark-La-Tex by the weekend. This will allow a front over the Great Lakes to sag south over the Mid-Atlantic with increasing moisture leading to a daily chance for showers and a few storms persisting through next week. Overall, severe threat remains low given lack of shear to support organized deep convection. Coverage of any convection today should be rather limited given the influence of upper ridging, but a lee side trough may provide enough forcing by this afternoon for a few storms to develop across the higher terrain. Should see storms dissipate with sunset, and then remain mostly dry again tonight. Better coverage of storms comes Friday as the front moves closer to the forecast area and the ridge continues to shift west. As the front moves into the Carolinas, it stalls on Saturday and high pressure wedges south along the Appalachians, which again will provide a focus for widely scattered afternoon/evening rain/storms. The stalled front will lift north as a warm front on Sunday and multiple upper disturbances will push through the region, continuing a daily chance for rain/storms into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Areas of river valley fog again this morning in typical locations. After morning fog dissipates, VFR returns areawide with only an isolated chance of storms this afternoon. Have added a mention of VCTS to TAFs at LWB/BLF/BCB, but still confidence remains rather low. Any storms that do form will dissipate by sunset and another round of overnight fog likely. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly diurnal shower/storm chances through Mon especially over the mountains, but activity is not expected to be organized and mainly coinciding with the heating of the day. Daily morning fog in favored valleys. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/PM AVIATION...BMG