Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
701 FXUS61 KRNK 141042 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 642 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure should allow for a dry remainder of the week. A dry front then pushes across midweek with cooler temperatures behind it. The next chance for rain looks to be Sunday with a stronger front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: 1. Drier airmass setting in with some continued gusty winds today. As the upper trough and attendant coastal sfc low advects eastward away from the mid-Atlantic, a dry ridge of high pressure will set in under NW flow aloft today. Some lingering morning stratocu should scatter out under the subsidence allowing for a mostly sunny day and generally above normal afternoon high temps with many locations reaching into the 70s. Winds should again be gusty near 15-20 mph during the daytime with an enhanced gradient. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: 1) A dry cold front Wednesday will allow for cooler temps and frost likely Friday morning in parts of the mountains. An impulse pushing southward along the NW upper flow becomes moisture starved as it approaches and will allow for a dry cold front passing through on Wednesday. This will bring the next round of below normal temps. While Thursday morning may be a tad too warm and some light NW/N winds, temps Friday morning generally along and west of the Blue Ridge look to be supportive of frost development in addition to calm winds. An advisory may be warranted in future updates. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 430 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: 1) Stronger frontal system looks to bring the next chance of rain by Sunday. The persistent ridge of high pressure is progged to finally break down with an amplifying longwave trough tracking eastward across the CONUS. An elongated sfc front and enhanced moisture axis should approach the area by Sunday. While there are plenty of strong dynamics and shear with this feature, instability struggles to advect northward into the area and therefore rain showers are only expected. By early next week, guidance has discrepancies on whether we transition back to NW flow behind the front or if the upper energy breaks away from the north and slings the low pressure southward into the area. The latter solution would allow for some increased rain chances but for now will maintain a dry forecast with noted uncertainty. Max temps will be quite warm and pleasant Saturday with many locations reaching the upper 70s to low 80s, then Sunday will be a bit cooler (mainly mid 60s to mid 70s) with the aforementioned front and rain chances. A chilly morning looks to be in store for Monday behind the front as lows dip down to the upper 30s to low 40s for much of the mountains. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 640 AM EDT Tuesday... VFR conditions expected through period. Just some lingering stratocu near 4-6 kft this morning. Should be mostly clear today into tonight under dry high pressure (perhaps a FEW cu or cirrus at times). Winds generally increase out of the north today around 8-10 kts and low end gusts possible, then gradually decrease this evening into tonight. Could have some morning FG/BR Wednesday morning for LWB. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... For the remainder of the week, VFR conditions are expected across the area, outside of patchy morning fog in the river valleys. Gusty winds continue through the middle of the week, mainly north to northwesterly through Friday. Next chance of rain arrives Sunday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP NEAR TERM...AB SHORT TERM...AB LONG TERM...AB AVIATION...AB/AS