Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
552 FXUS61 KRNK 281737 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 137 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep us dry and cooler than normal to close out the workweek. A frontal boundary may bring a few showers late in the weekend as moisture is drawn back north into the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: 1) Cool and dry weather continues. Overall, conditions will remain calm and dry across the area Should be less cloud cover tonight, so temperatures will drop into the 40s in the mountains to lower 50s east, though humidity gradually starts to moderate into Friday. Based of upper trough axis shifts east and more of southwest to west flow should keep a few cumulus clouds around during the day Friday with temperatures warming into the 70s in the mountains to lower 80s east, still a few degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ...As of 100 PM EDT THURSDAY... Key Messages: 1) Cool, fall-like temperatures persist 2) Isolated rain possible Saturday and Sunday In the wake of a late week front, high pressure will build over the Great Lakes Region, sliding east slowly over the weekend. Despite large scale upper level troughing covering almost the entire east coast, the extremely dry air held in the air mass of the high will prevent large scale shower formation. An inverted trough over the Appalachians Saturday will introduce slight chances of rain to the forecast Saturday afternoon, restricted to the NC High Country. As the high moves east to be centered more over New England, we will see a wedge begin to form. As moisture converges against the mountains from the surface easterly flow off the Atlantic, Sunday afternoon could see a few more showers appear in the southern Appalachians, with a slightly greater likelihood than Saturday. Any rain this weekend will be light. The wedging and high pressure to our north will all us to maintain cool to around normal temperatures over the weekend, highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ...As of 130 PM EDT THURSDAY... Key Messages: 1) Wedge strengthens into the midweek 2) Low confidence in the evolution of synoptic setup late in the week The wedge mentioned in the short term portion of the discussion will continue to strengthen as it sits centered around New England or just offshore. Easterly upslope will encourage some isolated to scattered shower formation along and west of the Blue Ridge each afternoon through the middle of the week. The process by which the wedge is broken varies both in timing and impacts. Some guidance suggests a strong front and closed low in the Great Lakes will cause widespread rainfall late in the week. Low confidence exists in what to actually expect in the late week forecast, but expect a shake-up to the wedging pattern. Temperatures during the first half of the week remain cool under the influence of the wedge, but expect an increase in temperatures in the latter half of the workweek. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 PM EDT Thursday.... VFR conditions look to prevail at all terminals through the TAF period, with the exception of LWB where some river valley fog may lead to some restrictions during the early morning hours Friday. Winds turn more west to southwest Friday and could have a few gusts to 15-20kts at BLF by 18z. Forecast confidence is high, but moderate for fog at KLWB. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions should into next week, though some wedging of high pressure may bring enough moisture for a few showers/storms to the mountains late in the weekend into next week with potential sub-VFR cigs. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EB/WP NEAR TERM...EB/WP SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...EB/WP