817
FXUS61 KRNK 200031
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
731 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak upper level energy and a surface trough will continue to
increase cloud cover for the area tonight into Thursday. High
pressure at the surface will keep us dry until late Thursday
night into Friday, when the next storm system is expected to
move into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 720 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Increasing clouds expected overnight into Thursday.

2) Fog expected overnight into Thursday morning.

WNW flow aloft was steering upper level energy into the area,
and pushing cirrus clouds in from the west. At the surface, an
inverted trough laying along the Blue Ridge mountains was
helpingto support the lowering and increase of stratus. All
locations in our forecast area will be overcast within the next
2 to 4 hours. Models continue to indicate fog will develop, and
expect this will be more a function of low stratus than true
fog, but still lower visibilities are possible in the morning,
especially for the mountains and foothills. Clouds gradually
lift tomorrow but it will take all day. However we may only see
some partly cloudy skies tomorrow for a few hours before a warm
front lifts into the region from the SW, bringing overcast
skies and showers. Precipitation generally looks to start around
9 PM tomorrow for the mountains and works its way east.

Confidence in the near term is high.



As of 110 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Low clouds roll in tonight and hang around into Thursday.

2) Cooler temperatures tomorrow, but still above daily normals.

An upper-level disturbance passed over the area this morning
and will push off the Virginia coast this afternoon. Behind this
system, a stubborn blanket of low clouds will remain,
particularly across the mountains and more so along the western
slopes of Southeast West Virginia.

Tonight, a weak high pressure system will move across the
Northeast states, sending a shallow dome of cool air southward
into North Carolina. Warm, moist air will be forced to overrun
this cooler surface air, blanketing the entire region with
clouds overnight. These thick clouds will act as an insulator,
helping to keep overnight temperatures in the 40s.

As Thursday unfolds, the parent high pressure system over New
England will begin to drift offshore. This will allow the
western edge of the wedge to start eroding across the Mountain
Empire of Southwest Virginia and into the Bluefield area,
letting slightly warmer air filter in. However, the wedge will
remain shallow and entrenched along the Virginia/North Carolina
border. This creates a sharp thermal divide. Areas south of
Highway 460, where the wedge is weakest, have a slight
probability of seeing temperatures warm into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Areas remaining within the wedge should see cooler
high temperatures, ranging between 49F to 56F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) A low pressure system will bring chances of rain for Friday
and Saturday.

2) Temperatures remain above normal for this time of year.

A low pressure system will approach the Appalachian Mountains
on Thursday night to provide increasing cloudiness. Rain chances
should begin before sunrise west of the Blue Ridge and spread
eastward towards the Piedmont during Friday morning. The
heaviest rainfall appears to stay across southeast West Virginia
where a half an inch to one whole inch may fall during Friday
and Saturday. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts could range from a
tenth of an inch across the North Carolina Piedmont to about a
third of an inch along the New and Roanoke river valleys.

A prevailing southwest breeze should provide warm air advection
to push temperatures above normal on Friday with highs mostly
in the 60s. As the cold front from the aforementioned low
pressure system arrives on Saturday, the flow will turn towards
the northwest. High temperatures by Saturday afternoon may only
reach the 50s in the mountains, but the downslope flow may boost
highs towards the 60s and perhaps even the lower 70s across
southside Virginia and the North Carolina Piedmont. Any
lingering rain should taper to upslope showers in the mountains
towards Saturday evening before completely fading during
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) High pressure should bring drier weather for Sunday and
Monday.

2) Chances of rain will return during Tuesday and Wednesday as
another low pressure system arrives.

Cooler air should follow in the wake of the departing cold
front by Sunday, but this air mass originates from the Pacific
Ocean and will only drop temperatures back to near seasonable
values. With high pressure crossing the Appalachian Mountains
during Sunday and Monday, drier weather should take place to
start the new week. Temperatures could rebound back above normal
on Monday. By Tuesday, high pressure will drift offshore, and
another low pressure system should arrive to provide the next
opportunity for rain. The rain may diminish on Wednesday with
the exception of lingering upslope showers in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 715 PM EST Wednesday...

A wedge of cooler air will move south across the area tonight.
Warm moist air is expect to glide over this wedge, creating a
blanket of IFR-MVFR clouds across the area overnight into
Thursday. Some LIFR conditions will be possible for BLF and LWB
with fog possible...although it will be more a function of the
ceilings lowering than actual fog processes. Ceilings will be
slow to lift Thursday, and we may see some clearer skies late
afternoon into the evening, before stratus and rain showers
arrive from the west along a warm front.

West winds will remain light into this evening then veer to the
northeast overnight into Thursday.

.Extended Aviation Outlook...

Sub-VFR conditions return after 00Z Friday through Sunday
morning as a frontal system crosses the region. Some cigs may
lift during the day Saturday, but the mountains will continue to
see upslope rain and stratus. Friday night into Saturday night
expect gusty winds, initially WSW becoming NW and then NNW by
Saturday. Sunday and Monday look to be dry with VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/SH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...RCS/SH