867
FXUS61 KRNK 182311
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
711 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coverage of showers and storms has decreased considerably
since this afternoon, a few isolated storms remain in far
southwest VA and in NC.

Aviation updated.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Summertime pattern continues into early next week, then a
cool down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Summertime pattern continues into early next
week then a cool down.

Convection has weakened across the area, with the majority of
the stronger storms over central and south NC and farther south.
A few isolated storms linger in southwest VA and in the
Piedmont, but overall thinking the severe threat is coming to an
end for the local forecast area.

The front which is forecast to cross the forecast area from
north to south tonight will introduce a modest surge of cooler
air which will have a stabilizing effect for our weather
Saturday. Temperatures Saturday are expected to be 10-15 degrees
cooler with METMOS a full 10 degrees cooler than MAVMOS for
daytime highs. Think this is due to what will likely be a day of
persistent cloud cover (the GFS not capturing the full extent
of the cloudiness) behind the front with shallow wedge of high
pressure building into the forecast area from the northeast.
There is still a chance for showers but mainly during the
morning with lack of solar insolation leading to less CAPE in
the afternoon. For now will maintain low chance pops, but we may
very well squeak by with a dry Saturday.

By Sunday the flow turns quickly with warm air advection
advancing across the TN/OH valleys. This will push the front
back to the north as a warm front...only to clash with another
southward moving upper level trough Monday and Tuesday,
temperatures trending cooler again for mid week. A wholesale
uptick in rain chances area expected for both Monday and Tuesday
with widespread QPF of one inch or more possible during this
time frame. 48 hour probabilistic ensemble guidance indicates
80 percent chance for 0.50, 50% chance of 1.00 and 25% chance of
1.50 or more. This is good news. For most, this will be much
needed rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Much of the convective activity today has waned, and skies are a
mix of FEW to BKN across the region, with high clouds over
northwest and NC and the VA southside, and some lower clouds
linger across the mountains. Overnight, low level stratus will
move into the area, bringing ceilings down to IFR or lower for
all area terminals after 06Z Saturday, and could also see some
patchy fog develop, bringing vsbys down as well. Gradual
improvement to MVFR is expected after 15Z or so, and returning
to low end VFR ceilings by Saturday mid afternoon, though the
cloud cover will persist through the day. Low precipitation
chances for the morning over the mountains, but confidence not
high enough to include in the TAFs. By the afternoon, low
chances for showers and thunderstorms become more confined to
the northwest NC mountains.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly diurnal shower/storm chances through Tuesday especially
over the mountains. Front is expected to stall over the area
this weekend which may lead to low cigs continuing into Sunday,
in addition to valley fog at night and into the morning hours.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AS/PM
AVIATION...AS/PM