863
FXUS61 KRNK 212334
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
734 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Kept some pops around this evening into the overnight but widely
scattered to isolated, except maybe an uptick toward far SW VA
and southside VA early this evening. Appears severe/flooding
threat are low.

Aviation Forecast Updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers to be widely scattered tonight. A cold front pushing
into the region late Saturday will bring additional chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

2) After continued showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, drier
weather returns Sunday and continues into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Widely scattered showers tonight, then cold front
pushing into the region late Saturday will bring additional
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Best convection earlier this afternoon into early evening has
been south of our county warning mainly along the I-40 corridor
in NC. The morning into early afternoon cluster that moved
across stabilized the airmass just enough to keep convection
limited. Still with plenty of low level moisture convergence
over the area will likely see widely scattered showers/few
storms into the overnight but the severe/hydro threat look low.

Previous discussion...

A more potent upper level shortwave ejecting south out of Canada
tomorrow will bring with it a much stronger cold front into the
region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Ahead of this
cold front, plenty of warm and moist air will allow widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Ohio
valley and translate east through the late afternoon and evening
hours. Current CAM guidance keeps the timing of these storms
moving into our region during the late evening hours and early
overnight hours. While this typically does not bode well with
thunderstorm strength and activity, the amount of forcing for
ascent from the cold front and the aforementioned upper level
shortwave may overcome the lack or waning instability to keep
thunderstorm activity going longer than is typical.
Nevertheless, the 0-6 Km deep layer shear looks to increase to
around 30-40 knots for the area based. This wind shear is
supported with HREF probabilities above 50% in some cases for
shear values above 30 knots. Some lingering instability of
500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE will help support storm development as
the front approaches. As the front pushes through the area
during the late evening and early overnight hours, some
lingering showers may still be ongoing across the Piedmont of VA
and NC during the early morning hours before clearing builds
across the area on Sunday with the injection of drier air from
the northwest.


KEY MESSAGE 2: After continued showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday, drier weather returns Sunday and continues into early
next week.

Behind the aforementioned frontal passage, a much cooler and
drier airmass will settle into the region as high pressure build
east across the Mid- Atlantic and southeast. Coolest air
arrives on Sunday and Monday with highs in the 70s in the
mountains and low to mid 80s east of the mountains. Lows Sunday
and Monday morning will drop into the 50s with a few locations
possibly into the low 50s in the mountains. Expect foggy
mornings across the mountains, especially in the river valleys,
and cool dry afternoons for much of the region through Tuesday.
Surface high pressure and upper level troughing across the
eastern Conus breaks down by Wednesday, which will allow showers
and thunderstorms to occur across the area once again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR to VFR this evening likely to transition to IFR or lower
for the area overnight into Sat morning. Ceilings dropping into
the 100 to 900 foot range after 06z, appears likely. Vsbys will
drop as well, but low stratus should limit fog somewhat.

Should be a slow improvement in the 12-16z time frame from
IFR/LIFR to VFR.

Storms are possible Sat afternoon but too scattered to mention
in the tafs yet.

Winds stay light/calm through most of the period, a slight
increase from the west/southwest ahead of the front Saturday
afternoon possible, in the 5-10kt range.

OUTLOOK...

Drier airmass situated over the Great Lakes will sink into the
area Sunday into early next week. Should be mainly VFR aside
from any late night fog, mainly LWB/BCB. Next system appears to
bring some chances for storms Wednesday with possibility for
sub-VFR cigs/vsbys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EB/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP