067
FXUS61 KRNK 301742
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1242 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes to the east coast this evening. High
pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley Monday, while low
pressure develops along the front off the Gulf Coast. This
system will advance into our area Monday night into Tuesday with
another round of wintry weather changing to rain. High pressure
returns Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Winter Weather Advisory expired at Noon.

2) Spotty light rain/drizzle this afternoon, dry tonight-Monday.

Light rain and drizzle will be patchy ahead of a cold front
this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed above freezing for
most, though some pockets of 32F still remain in portions of the
Alleghanys. Despite the front pushing through our area this
afternoon, skies will be mainly cloudy until later tonight when
jet level induced cirrus moves east, and enough mixing of dry
air clears out the lower clouds east of the WV mountains.

Brief period of cold advection will bring temperatures down into
20s for most, though confidence is low due to cloud cover
lingering which could keep temps warmer than forecast, so may
have some 30s in places like Roanoke.

Monday, look for high pressure to build overhead by early
afternoon, then shift to the northeast by evening. A dry day in
store with sunshine giving way to increasing clouds later in the
day from the south, ahead of our next weather maker.

With sunshine, temperatures should climb into the lower to mid
40s, expect some 30s in the mountains.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

1. Increasing confidence in a winter weather event to impact much of
the region Monday night and Tuesday, especially across the mountains
and northern sections of the Piedmont.
2. Dry Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
3. Temperatures around a little below normal.

A look a the 29 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Monday/Monday night a deep closed low pressure
system will be centered just north of Hudson Bay. As associated long
wave will extend southwest from the low center into central CONUS.
As such, southwest flow aloft will prevail across our region. A
shortwave trough will be over British Columbia heading towards the
Pacific Northwest. A shortwave ridge will be over the Gulf of
Alaska. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the trough over center CONUS is
expected to make headway eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalachians by the early evening. Upstream, the shortwave
trough over BC moves southeast into western CONUS and begins to
amplify. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the trough over western
CONUS maintains its relative position. However, arctic shortwave
trough heads south on the west side of the closed Canadian low
pressure into the Upper Mississippi and western Great Lakes region.
Southwest flow will prevail across our region.

At the surface for Monday/Monday night, the center of surface high
pressure crosses our region during the morning hours. By the late
afternoon, its center is expected to be closer to NY/NJ. Also by the
late afternoon, an inverted trough is expected to extend from the
Lower Mississippi Valley northeast into the Tennessee Valley. Monday
night, this inverted trough is expected to cross our region and
start deepening into a closed low. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, this
same closed low is expected to move northeast and be centered off
the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula by the evening hours. High
pressure will be centered over much of the Mississippi Valley. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night, the high pressure shifts east, with its
center over the Carolinas by the evening. A weak cold front will be
over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, while another area of high
pressure will be centered over the Dakotas.

A look at the 29 Nov 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Monday will start the day within a
range of -4C to +1C, north to south across the region. During the
day warm air advection provides early evening values of -1C to +2C,
ne-sw across the area. Warm air advection continues Monday night
into Tuesday morning yielding a range of +2C to +6C, nw-se. On
Tuesday, temperatures decrease during the day from northwest to
southeast. By the early evening, expect values of -6C to 0C, nw-se,
across the region. Through the night the temperatures gradient
slackens a bit with values of -4C to 0C, n-s, by daybreak Wednesday.
On Wednesday, temperatures inch higher with early evening values of
0C to +2C, n-s. Wednesday night, warm air advection brings a surge
of warmer air across the Piedmont, with a tightening of the gradient
in general across the region. Early Thursday morning values are
expected to range from -1C to +5C, nw-se.

The above weather patterns offer the following forecast. After a dry
day on Monday, the interaction of an approaching upper trough
through the center of the country, the development of an inverted
trough over the Tennessee Valley, and isentropic advection of
moisture into our region, will yield a precipitation event which
will begin Monday night, and not conclude until the axis of the
upper trough is east of the area Tuesday evening.

Initially Monday night within the lower levels we will have sub-
freezing air across northern parts of the area and slightly above
freezing air in the south. At the surface, temperatures will be
falling through the 30s during the evening hours with dew point
depressions around 10 to 15F. Evaporative cooling should help
initially enhance the cooling process, all the while aloft, warm air
advection will be taking place. Eventually, warm air advection will
reach the surface, yielding warming surface temperatures through the
night, continuing into the daytime Tuesday through the early
afternoon. After this time, both the approach and eventual sunset,
and the passage of the the upper trough will start to allow for
falling temperatures, and a loss of any warm nose aloft.

The result of all of this is expected to be light snow across the
northern half of the region early Monday evening, with a mix of
rain, freezing rain, and or sleet for the southern half. As the
night progresses, the snow areas will retreat north with more of the
region having the potential for freezing rain and/or sleet. By late
Monday night, only the farthest north parts of the area will see
snow, and that could easily be mixed with other wintry p-types. The
freezing rain will also become more concentrated across the north,
and also southern parts of the Blue Ridge, and much of the rest of
the southern half of the area experiences a cold non-freezing rain.

On Tuesday, by the the late morning, much of the region will be
experiencing a plain cold rain except for portions of southeast West
Virginia and the southern Alleghany Highlands. Here, temperatures
may stay just cold enough for conditions to still be snow and/or
freezing rain. As we progress into and through the afternoon, look
for area of light snow to increase across the mountains as
temperatures fall and winds shift northwest. Ending rainfall is
expected elsewhere.

Tuesday night, precipitation is expected to end across all but
portions of southeast West Virginia. Here, some lingering flurries
may continue through the evening hours. Otherwise, dry conditions
are expected for the area. Dry conditions with temperatures around a
slightly below normal are expected through Wednesday night.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Dry with seasonable temperatures Thursday.
2. Friday, potential wintry mix but, low confidence on details.
3. Saturday, potential cold rain day with some light mix in the
   north, but low confidence on details.
4. Temperatures trending milder through the period.

A look at the 29 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Thursday/Thursday night, the axis of an arctic
shortwave trough will progress from the Great Lakes region into New
England. This axis will be over our region around or a little after
the early evening. For Friday/Friday night, the trough over the area
on Thursday is expected to reach the Canadian Maritimes by Friday
evening. However, a second shortwave trough associated with a closed
Canadian low pressure will be progressing through the western Great
Lakes. A longwave trough/potential closed low, remains parked over
southwest CONUS. For Saturday, the shortwave trough to our west on
Friday across the area. Exact timing is questionable as the ensemble
solution washes out the feature too much.

At the surface for Thursday/Thursday night, high pressure over the
Dakotas heads southeast and becomes centered over the Lower Ohio
Valley by the evening hours. An inverted trough develops near
Brownsville, TX along a front which extends into the Gulf of
America. For Friday/Friday night, the high pressure progresses east
from the Ohio Valley to off the New England coast by the early
evening. Low pressure rides east along a frontal boundary in the
northern Gulf to reach the area of the Florida Panhandle by early
Saturday morning. For Saturday, details with the ensemble washout
within the averaging. However, there are hints that high pressure
will be over our region, while a front, and possible low riding
along it, will be somewhere over the SE US.

A look at the 29 Nov 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Thursday falling during the day and
reaching a range of -4C to +1C, nw-se by the early evening. For
Friday, values trend upward, reaching a range of -1C to +2C, n-s. ON
Saturday, values inch upward to a range of 0C to +4C, with a nw-se
orientation.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. High
pressure will maintain control on our weather pattern on Thursday
with dry conditions and near normal temperatures. For Friday into
Saturday, confidence on details slides downward a lot. High pressure
will generally be situated over or just north of the region.
Additionally, a couple of southern streams system will have the
potential of bringing precipitation northward into our region, a
region which will be occupied by generally cold air in association
with the high pressure. This could set the stage for a Friday and
Saturday which will have the potential for good precipitation
coverage across the area. The one on Friday will have colder air off
the surface and at the surface to work with for the potential for
wintry weather as compared to Saturday. Our forecast will reflect
that scenario, but know that confidence is low, and this far out in
time there is plenty of opportunity for adjustments in precipitation
type, timing and amount as we get closer to the days in question.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is low to moderate for
Thursday and low Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Sunday...

MVFR to IFR restrictions this afternoon, should gradually
improve toward early evening as post-frontal winds kick up just
enough raise cigs to VFR east of the mountains. Some light
rain/drizzle still possible this afternoon, dries out by 0z.

BLF/LWB will retain lower cigs longer, with BLF possibly not
getting to VFR til 12z Monday.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Another storm system arrives with more wintry weather Monday
night so expect sub-VFR cigs/vsbys late Monday night into
Tuesday. Return to VFR for most by Wednesday-Thursday, slower at
BLF Wed. Friday yet another storm system looks to bring wintry
weather and poor flying weather to the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EB/WP