451
FXUS61 KRNK 021153
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
653 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and or Freezing Rain can be expected this morning as an
area of low pressure moves northeast along the Atlantic Coast.
The precipitation is expected to come to an end this afternoon
as the storm system exits the region, replaced by an area of dry
high pressure for mid-week. Any accumulation of ice this morning
is expected to melt this afternoon as temperatures climb above
freezing. Another opportunity for mixed wintry precipitation is
possible Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain this morning.

2) Precipitation ends mid-day with partial clearing this
afternoon.

3) Lingering clouds in the mountains tonight otherwise clear
and cold for the overnight

Low pressure over the southeast CONUS is forecast to quickly
gain latitude today, moving northeast along the Atlantic Coast.
A large area of rain, freezing rain, and some snow is forecast
as this system impacts the eastern U.S today. For our forecast
area we are expected to receive primarily rain and freezing
rain, the freezing rain occurring where temperatures are cold
enough to support icing.

Coldest temperatures this morning were found along the Blue
Ridge Parkway and highland counties, esp along the WV/VA border
where temperatures were in the upper 20s. Lower mountain valleys
were in the lower 30s, and some of the Blue Ridge foothill
counties were near 32 as well. Most of the piedmont was in the
mid 30s, in addition to the opposite side of the mountains with
the upper TN valley, west of Marion VA, in the mid 30s. Given
this temperature profile, will maintain current Winter Weather
Advisory configuration with no need for additional expansion.
If anything, we will begin to cancel the advisory where
temperatures do not support freezing precipitation.

As far as amounts, models continue to advertise about a half to
three quarters of an inch of QPF (total liquid equivalent rain),
some of which will be moderate intensity. Warm temperatures
aloft, 850 MB temps of +4 to +8 deg C will help modify the
boundary layer temperatures where the rain is moderate or higher
in intensity. As such think icing potential will be no more
than half of the advertised QPF with 0.10 to 0.20 inches (1-2
tenths ice) for areas which maintain temperatures AOB 32 deg F.
The I-64 corridor may squeak out a little more...0.20 to 0.30,
and this will likely be the area with the greatest impacts to
travel and or creating enough icing to cause power outages.
Whatever falls should melt this afternoon as temperatures rise
above 32.

Message for the morning commuters and for those making
important go or no-go decisions...e.g. School Superintendents...
the current temperatures are about as low as they are going to
get this morning. Now that precipitation is falling the
temperatures have stabilized. These temperatures will hold about
where they are through 0900, then begin to inch upward with
most areas within our service area climbing above critical
thresholds this afternoon promoting melting.

Once we get past 18Z/1PM, the storm system will begin to move
away from the area, northwest winds increasing behind the
system. Forecast models show increasing storm intensity as it
moves to off the New England coast tonight...the increasing
pressure gradient resulting in brisk northwest winds and cold
air advection tonight. Most of the forecast area is looking at
lows in the 20s tonight with upper teens across the higher
elevations. HREF hangs on to some low level moisture for the
mountains, so can`t rule out some snow flurries for the
mountains overnight...with a dusting of accumulation in the
favored upslope west facing slopes of the Appalachians...e.g.
western Greenbrier. East of the mountains, expecting downslope
drying, so mainly clear skies east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet weather through Thursday night.

2) Temperatures continue to be below normal.

3) Next system moves in Friday morning, snow transition to wintry
mix possible.

Surface high pressure will remain in place across the Mid-Atlantic
Region midweek, keeping things dry. At the upper-levels, zonal flow
will remain in place through the rest of the week, with no large
dips in the jet stream expected. Models are in good agreement with
this through Friday morning. Late Thursday, a weak front will pass
just north of the area, which could allow for a brief snow shower in
Western Greenbrier County in WV, but confidence in this is low.
Behind the front, NW winds increase for Thursday evening, with gusts
of 20-25 mph possible west of the Blue Ridge.

A low pressure system is then expected to develop near the Gulf
Coast late week along a stationary frontal boundary and move into
the Carolinas. This is where models begin to differ, with some
models having the precipitation arriving to the NC mountains and
southern Piedmont Friday morning, with others holding off until
Friday evening. The timing will be important in terms of how much
wintry precipitation our area will see. High pressure will be over
the Northeastern US, wedging down into our area. The sooner the
precipitation arrives, the stronger the wedge will be, while a later
arrival would allow the wedge to weaken and begin to lift north out
of the area. Current guidance suggests that late Friday morning
precipitation will arrive, initially as snow for most of the area
transitioning to a wintry mix Friday evening.

QPF totals will be light, but could change depending on when the
precipitation arrives. A dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow
may be possible early Friday before the transition occurs to
rain/freezing rain. A glaze of ice will also be possible for the
southern Appalachians through Friday evening.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the period, with highs
in the 30s/40s Wednesday/Thursday, with a few 50s possible in the
Piedmont Thursday. By Friday, the wedge and cloud cover keeps highs
in the 30s area-wide. Overnight lows will be in the 20s, with a few
teens in the Alleghany Highlands Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Tuesday

Key Messages:

1) Wintry mix lingers into Friday night, clears out for the weekend.

2) Below normal temperatures persist through the period.

3) A weak system may bring more winter weather early next week.

As the system moves through Friday night, wintry precipitation will
linger. Some light icing may continue overnight before the system
moves out, with drier weather for Saturday and the rest of the
weekend. A weak surface high pressure will sit over the Mid-Atlantic
through Sunday night, keeping the weather quiet. A weak disturbance
and upper-level trough will then approach the area on Monday, which
could bring a few light rain/snow showers, but confidence is low
that this occurs, as it is nearly a week out. Otherwise, high
pressure lasts through the end of the period.

Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend into
early next week, with highs in the 40s/50s over the weekend, falling
into the 30s/40s early next week. Lows will remain consistent, in
the 20s each morning area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 AM EST Tuesday...

Freezing rain this morning promoting icing through
14Z/9AM...transitioning to all rain before ending by 17Z/Noon.
Low cigs are expected at all terminals with moderate to high
confidence for IFR and LIFR through mid-day before improving
this afternoon. Shallow wedge of cool air near the surface is
promoting near calm surface with with LLJ just above the stable
layer. This may promote period of LLWS this morning until stable
layer gets mixed out this afternoon.

After 18Z/1PM, expect wholesale improvement in CIG/VSBY as
northwest winds develop in the wake of the storm system,
downslope wind flow resulting in drying and loss of cloud layers
east of the mountains. Low level moisture is expected to linger
over the mountains and through much of tonight, with MVFR cig
progged for BLF/LWB through the overnight.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR for Wednesday-Thursday...under influence of high pressure.
For Friday, another storm system will approach the lower Mid-
Atlantic to bring wintry weather and degraded flying conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ001>004-
     018>020.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM