Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
707 FXUS61 KRNK 300616 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 216 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. Chances for showers/isolated storms Monday and Monday evening along and south of Highway 460. Increased chances for showers/storms Tuesday as an upper trough moves overhead. Otherwise dry and warm. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers/storms possible Monday and again Tuesday as a cold front and an upper trough move through. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mainly dry weather. Showers/storms possible Monday and again Tuesday as a cold front and an upper trough move through. The CONUS remains in a Omega block pattern, with a NW U.S. closed low, ridging over the central CONUS, and another closed low centered near Hudson Bay, with associated troughing across much of the eastern CONUS. A significant piece of energy will detach from the Hudson Bay system and become its own upper low sometime Tuesday. This system will impact the Mid Atlantic in the mid week period, before ejecting into the Atlantic. Previously models had moved this system offshore, but with the system in the vicinity, introduced more showers and storms into the forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday evening. These showers could be more widespread than Monday`s showers/isolated storms associated with a southward morning cold front. Both days, convection may be inhibited by high pressure at the surface along with drier air, especially over the mountains. QPF looks pretty limited with both these setups, but training convection over the Piedmont may yield isolated higher totals where PWATs exceed 1 inch. Wednesday through Friday look dry and mostly sunny, with the next system possibly bringing more rain by next weekend. Highs will be in the 70s for the mountains through Monday, with some cooler 60s to low 70s readings for Tuesday and Wednesday before rebounding late next week into the mid to upper 70s or warmer. The Piedmont will see mostly 70s for highs with 80s possible today and again Monday, and will be slightly cooler the other days. By next Friday into next Saturday, mid to upper 80s will be possible for Martinsville to Lynchburg and southeast. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mid and high level clouds will affect the region at times through the 24 hour valid TAF period as we remain in NW flow aloft bringing periods of mid level energy through. May see a brief period of MVFR or lower visibilities at LWB this morning, but this is looking less likely with dew point depressions wider this morning. Otherwise VFR throughout the TAF cycle. TAFs were mainly a wind forecast, with calm to light and variable conditions this morning transitioning to light NE after day break. Winds then become NNE for most, with the exception being LYH and DAN with easterly winds as high pressure attempts to wedge along the southern Appalachians. Tonight, as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure to the north and lower pressure over SC, we may see some gusts to 15 knots for a few hours at most TAF sites before they decrease to 5 to 8 knots overnight. Confidence in the above forecast is high, but lower in fog development. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... By Monday when isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may develop with the potential to impact all sites but LWB and LYH. A few more SHRA/TSRA are possible areawide Tuesday with an upper level system passing by overhead combined with daytime instability. These should diminish after dark. Tuesday night through Wednesday we will be return to dry VFR conditions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION...SH