Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
714 FXUS61 KRNK 072319 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 719 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances continuing through next week. Aviation updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather will persist through next week. Greatest chance for rainfall will be over the mountains and adjacent foothills. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather will persist through next week. Greatest chance for rainfall will be over the mountains and adjacent foothills. Sub-tropical high pressure remains parked over the western Atlantic through this weekend, although it is gradually squashed as the upper level trough axis over the central states shifts east. By next week, we will be further ensconced within the mean trough as the main storm track builds south. This will increase storm coverage and possibly a greater threat for more organized convection. Through the weekend and all of next week, expect daily showers and thunderstorms. The main forcing mechanisms, especially through Monday, will be differential heating and interaction of the southerly moisture fetch with the mountains and foothills. For this weekend however, Saturday looks to have the highest chance for more widespread convection, with a surface trough in the region. Overall though, with weak low level lapse rates and shear, storms should be disorganized and on the weaker side. Main concern will be flash flooding, and with slow storm movement and very efficient rainfall rates, locations that see storms persist for a longer duration could experience flash flooding. Better storm coverage looks to arrive again by mid week as an upper trough begins to dip south. This will introduce slightly better shear/forcing into the region, therefore could see a little more widespread coverage and an uptick in severe potential. Although flash flooding from heavy rain still appears to be the main threat, some potential for damaging winds will exist as well. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to remain through the remainder of the evening at most terminals. DAN may see brief periods of TSRA and MVFR to LIFR restrictions as thunderstorms in its vicinity move near/over it over the next 1-2 hours. Outside of this, all other terminals should remain VFR. Some MVFR to IFR CIGs/VSBYs look to develop at BCB and LWB during the early morning hours prior to sunrise. These restrictions will likely lift by the 12-14 UTC timeframe. Rain and thunderstorms look possible again on Saturday at BCB, BLF, and LWB during the early afternoon and evening hours. These will likely may lead to brief periods of MVFR to IFR restrictions if they move over the terminals mentioned above. Winds look to remain out of the southwest through the TAF period at around 10 knots or less. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Forecast persistence through the end of the week and weekend with moist unstable airmass contributing to daily threat of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Overnight fog development also expected with greatest concentration within the mountain valleys. && .HYDROLOGY... There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for areas near the Blue Ridge and westward the next two days, then for parts of the western mountains of NC and VA Sunday. Repeated chances of showers and thunderstorms amidst a moist air mass will persist the remainder of this week. Not a lot of confidence in the details for any particular location, but mountains will encourage training storms. PWAT values are expected to remain in the 1.50" to 2.00" range. High ambient moisture will produce very efficient rainfall rates which could exceed 2-3 inches per hour. Urban areas and along mountainous terrain will be particularly susceptible to flash flooding, especially if storms repeatedly train over the same locations. Antecedent soil conditions are gradually turning wetter across the area, but there are still considerable rainfall deficits across the Piedmont. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/SH AVIATION...BMG/EB HYDROLOGY...SH