293
FXUS63 KSGF 071146
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
646 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous but rather disorganized pocket-sized shower and
  thunderstorm activity expected across the region throughout
  today and tonight (60-90% chance).

- Marginal (1 of 5) Risk today for isolated wind gusts up to 60
  mph and brief and/or weak tornadoes. Severe risk will exist
  anytime between 10 AM and 10 PM.

- Flood Watch issued for 1 PM today to 1 PM Monday for areas
  along and west of Hwy 63. Quick 2-3 inch per hour downpours
  will promote a flash flooding risk for areas that see repeated
  storms. Total rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches expected, with
  spotty amounts up to 5-7 inches possible.

- Above normal temperatures and humidity next week will lead to
  Heat Index values in the mid-90s to lower 100s. First heat of
  the season and warm nighttime temperatures may heighten heat-
  related impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A somewhat tropical-esque system continues to slowly churn
across the central Plains. Water vapor and infrared satellite
imagery actually showed a decent center of circulation over
Oklahoma and Kansas early in the evening. The circulation has
become a little less defined through the night as it starts to
embed into the upper-level flow over the Rocky Mountains, making
it become more trough-like. Our 00Z sounding confirms the
tropical nature of the system with a saturated profile noted all
the way through the troposphere, characterized by near 1.8-in
PWATS. Deep clouds and moisture will keep lows pretty mild
tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Radar imagery only shows
spotty very light showers across the area at the moment, which
should continue through the morning.


Numerous but rather disorganized showers and thunderstorms today:

Instability is currently rather weak across the area, but as the
hybrid closed low/shortwave trough axis slowly lifts
northeastward this morning, it will advect in lower 70 F
dewpoints as temperatures begin to warm to around 80 F. This
will generate 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area, with
pockets of instability upwards of 3000 J/kg. Due to the deep,
moist profile of forecast soundings, this instability will be
uncapped. With the lack of any boundary across the area,
synoptic-scale ascent from positive vorticity advection ahead of
the trough axis will be the main source of lift. Since this lift
will be subtle but widespread, expect "small-in-area" showers
and thunderstorms to be numerous across the whole area
throughout the day and night (rather than focused along a
boundary during a specific time). Any subtle surface convergence
boundaries that do develop would focus greater coverage of
storms, but in general, expect numerous disorganized pocket-
sized showers and storms throughout the day (60-90% chance)


Marginal Risk for brief damaging wind gusts and tornadoes
today:

With the closed low becoming more embedded in the stronger
background flow, along with the shortwave trough taking on a
more defined axis, mid-level flow will become slightly enhanced
across our region today. This will introduce 25-35 kts of 0-6
km bulk shear. RAP and HREF members depict ranges of 10-20 kts
of that shear being focused in the low-levels with small but
curved hodographs generating 100-200 m2/s2 SRH. Combined this
with the tropical nature of the system with tall, skinny CAPE
profiles, the environment will be just capable enough for
tropical-cyclone-type mini supercells. Given the environment,
these type of supercells are generally capable of producing
isolated brief and/or weak tornadoes. This was observed in
Arkansas yesterday. Since their environment will be advected
into our area today, there is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for a
low 2% chance of brief and/or weak tornadoes within 25 miles of
any given point in southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas into
this evening. Additionally, brief microbursts with wind gusts
up to 60 mph would also be possible in precipitation- loaded
downdrafts.

Since storms will not be focused along any boundary and will
generally be developing, maturing, and dissipating throughout
the day and into the evening, this severe risk will exist
anytime from 10 AM to 10 PM, though may be best focused around
12-8 PM when the best shear/instability overlap.


Flash Flood Watch in effect from 1 PM today to 1 PM Monday:

In addition to the severe risk, the tropical-like environment
will introduce an excessive rainfall and flash flooding risk
across much of the area. Forecast PWATs near 1.8-2.0 inches
will be above the 99th percentile for this time of year as
portrayed by NAEFS ESATs and the SPC Sounding Climatology.
Additionally, thermodynamic profiles will consist of tall,
skinny CAPE with a deep LCL to Freezing Level layer. This will
all promote high rain rates in any showers and thunderstorms.
Oklahoma and Arkansas observed rates of 2-3 inches per hour
yesterday. Again, since their environment will be in our area
today, we can expect these rain rates to occur with any given
storm today. For today, the flash flooding threat will not be
what we are normally used to where storms train and dump rain
for hours on end. Since storms will be quick and somewhat
small-in-area, but numerous, the flooding threat will occur in
any areas that experience repeated storm cells with 2-3 in/hr
rates. Therefore, many areas may only see up to 1-3 inches of
rain through Monday, with only very spotty streaks of locally
higher amounts.

That said, as the trough axis traverses the area later tonight,
the nocturnal low-level jet will respond, increasing to 20-25
kts. This will introduce added warm air advection and enhanced
lift along the convergent nose of the LLJ. This would add some
focus for greater coverage of back-building (longer-lasting)
storms which may introduce a more widespread and concerning
flash flooding threat. The 00Z CAM suite has begun to hint at
this scenario with most members depicting a back-building
complex of storms somewhere over our area, but timing and
location are still very uncertain. The NAM/NSSL models place
these toward south-central MO, while the FVR/RRFS models place
this in southeast KS/northeast OK. Then, ARW/HRRR somewhere in
between those two. We`ll have to monitor trends for greater
agreement, but bottom line is that if one of these complexes
develop late tonight into Monday morning, a more widespread
flash flood threat may materialize. HREF and REFS LPMMs depict
pockets of 5-7+ inches of rain within any complex, which would
promote more "serious" flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Marginal severe and flood threat east of Highway 63 on Monday:

A lingering/decaying thunderstorm complex somewhere over the
region appears likely Monday morning (40-60% chance). The
location and evolution of this complex will determine the
resulting severe/flooding threat into early Monday afternoon.
Currently, the trough axis is progged to exit the area Monday
afternoon, leaving our area in northwest flow. That said,
instability will still be plentiful and any leftover boundaries
from morning storms could spark some marginally severe (and
heavy rain) storms east of Highway 63 during the day. If the
morning complex is deep enough to generate an MCV, perhaps a
very isolated tornado risk develops, but a damaging wind risk
appears to be the primary hazard at this time.


Persistent heat enters the region for much of next week:

Once the wave exits the region, global ensembles show a
shortwave ridge axis setting up over the Ozarks as an energetic
trough enters the northwestern CONUS. ESATs depict this ridge to
possess >97.5th percentile mid-level geopotential heights for
this time of year. This will bring warm temperatures in the
lower 90s for Tuesday through Friday. Furthermore, the low-
level moisture in place is progged to be >99.5th percentile.
These above normal temperatures and humidity will lead to Heat
Index values ranging from the middle 90s to the lower 100s
(reaching near 110 F in some spots), especially Tuesday.

While this is not uncommon heat for the Ozarks to experience, it
is rather atypical for early June as contextualized by our
"normal" max heat index of around 97 F for early June as
outlined by the CPC. The CPC gives an 80-90% chance of exceeding
this above normal heat index threshold at any point next week.
With this being the first heat of the season, NBM spreads
forecasting it to be over multiple days, and with warm nighttime
temperatures in the 70s providing little relief, heat impacts
may be slightly heightened from normal 100-110 F heat index
impacts. This is reflected with a widespread Moderate to Major
Risk for heat-related impacts, especially Wednesday and
Thursday. This means the heat will likely affect those without
cooling or hydration. Extra care for heat-related impacts should
be exercised come next week.

The exact longevity of the heat wave is still a bit in question
as ensemble clusters diverge a bit on shortwave and resulting
cold front progressions Thursday and onward. Latest LREF trends
point to a cold front moving through Thursday, bringing our next
chance of rain (50-60%). This would "cool" things off to near
normal for the rest of the week. Clusters are still a bit
divergent, though, so trends will continue to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A messy forecast is in store for the 12Z TAF period as
satellite imagery continues to show a system spin away in
Kansas/Oklahoma. Radar imagery currently shows light showers
attempting to increase in coverage. Going forward, numerous
small-in-area showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the region, creating a PROB30 for thunderstorms
throughout the entire period. Model guidance is honing on a
potential weakly organized line of storms moving through SGF and
BBG between 17-21Z. Have opted to put a TEMPO group here for
the greater confidence in storm impact.

With any of the showers and storms, heavy downpours and
lightning will be the main aviation hazard, with visibility
dropping down to a mile or lower at times, if impacted directly.

Of additional note, cigs have been observed to bounce around at
the TAF sites as the system forces several layers of clouds.
Expect this to be the case through 18Z, and then again after
06Z.

Otherwise, winds will be at 8-13 kts out of the southeast for
the entire period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday
     afternoon for MOZ055-066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price