520
FXUS63 KSGF 191114
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
614 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
  today through Monday.

- Hot and humid conditions on Monday and especially Tuesday. A
  Heat Advisory has been issued areawide for afternoon heat
  index values between 100 to 108 degrees.

- Seasonable temperatures ahead mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Synoptic Overview:

Broad ridging persists aloft today with surface high pressure
along the Gulf coast producing continued warm, humid conditions
across southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. A cold front
was draped across northern Missouri with scattered convection
ahead of it. To its south, a weak convergent boundary has been
the focus for small, isolated showers across southern Missouri
and southeast Kansas.

Scattered Showers and Storms Today through Monday:

Hi-res guidance shows convection percolating today amidst
uncapped MLCAPE values reaching between 2000-2500 J/kg and a
moist vertical profile. Long, skinny CAPE profiles will support
brief heavy downpours and a few thunderstorms as the primary
hazards. Chances are highest (30-50%) across central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks. Similar conditions will occur on Monday
with diurnally driven isolated to scattered convection across
south-central Missouri.

A cold front will then push through southern Missouri late
Tuesday into Wednesday. While models currently are not very
eager to initiate convection along this boundary, it is not
unreasonable to think a few showers could develop along it given
the abundant moisture. This potential will be monitored over
the next 48 hours.

Heat Builds Early Next Week:

Temperatures will increase Monday into Tuesday as the upper-
level ridge axis shifts east slightly. This increase in
temperatures along with the persistent humid airmass will
produce heat index values in the 100 to 108 degree range.
Furthermore, the NWS HeatRisk product depicts widespread
Moderate to Major values, suggesting those without effective
cooling and hydration measures are likely to face heat-related
impacts. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued areawide
from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday. Forecast point soundings do
suggest some atmospheric mixing will occur on Monday which may
result in slightly lower dew points (and therefore heat index
values) than guidance currently suggests, but the vertical
profile is quite moist aloft, so any lowering will likely be
minor. Locations within the lower terrain off the plateau are
more likely to experience the least mixing and highest heat
index values. For Tuesday, temperatures will increase further,
and the approaching cold front will act to reduce mixing.
Therefore, confidence in heat index values reaching advisory
criteria (105+) is higher on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

More seasonable temperatures and a drier airmass will move in
behind the cold front on Wednesday, which will act to keep rain
chances minimal through much of Thursday. Global models suggest
a flattening of the ridge with the passage of a transient
shortwave trough late Thursday which may open the door to more
precipitation chances into Friday morning. Current NBM PoPs sit
between 25 to 40%.

Ensemble cluster solutions diverge more significantly Friday
into the weekend as evidenced by large temperature spreads. A
more eastward ridge axis would tend to mean above-average
temperatures and drier conditions, while a more westward
solution would be slightly cooler with continued precipitation
chances on the eastern periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A band of showers across southern Missouri will continue to
diminish at the start of the TAF period. Additional isolated to
scattered showers and storms will re-develop in the afternoon.
Coverage remains in question, however, so any mention was
relegated to a PROB30 group.

Winds will remain light (generally less than 10 kt) throughout
the TAF period, prevailing out of the south to southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-
     097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio