708
FXUS63 KSGF 141724
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1124 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain across the area through this morning and last through the
  day today (90-100% chance). There is a 50% chance for a few
  thunderstorms this morning, mainly west of Springfield.

- Total rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely with a few
  localized areas receiving up to 3 inches. Ongoing drought and
  below normal streamflows will minimize any flooding potential.

- Above-average temperatures are likely (70-90% chance) next
  week with highs in the 60s and 70s returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 124 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Widespread showers and isolated thunder was occuring across the
Ozarks early this morning as deep moisture was being forced up
the western edge of an upper level ridge over the region aided
bu a 40 to 50kt LLJ at 850mb. This broad area of rain will
continue to develop over the plains and move through the area
through today as an upper level trough digs into the southern
Plains today. The heaviest rainfall will generally fall through
this morning in association with the LLJ aided lift and
forcing. This forcing will also be the main culprit behind any
rumbles of thunder as surface based instability struggles to get
anything over 100 j/kg through tonight with most models showing
less than a 10 percent probability of even realizing as much as
75 j/kg. As a result, the elevated convection is expected to
remain isolated and well below severe limits.

By late afternoon into this evening, the coverage of rain may
begin to show a few breaks and some locations may see periods of
dry weather. Through tonight into Sunday morning, the upper
level trough will push through the region and shift the rain
east of the area with only some lingering showers in portions
of the southeastern Ozarks by sunrise on Sunday.

With the ongoing southwesterly flow today and into tonight, warm
air advection will continue allowing temperatures to remain in
the 50s to lower 60s across the area despite the cloud cover
and rainfall. Heading into the overnight hours, will need to see
if the lowering cloud cover will build to near the surface and
impact visibilities for Sunday morning. For now, expectations
are for lingering low stratus will remain at or above 200ft AGL,
but local rules of thumb would suggest IFR conditions may occur
with the deep moisture associated with the 500mb Height ridge
moving over the region until it is moved east by the trough.

There remains the potential for a few sites to reach or break
record precip for today (see climate section below) with some
locations having already seeing 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain by
2am. However some of this rain fell prior to midnight at Joplin
and Springfield.

Severe to extreme drought and well below normal streamflows are
will remain limiting factors to what would normally be a
flooding concern given these forecast rainfall amounts and
dormant vegetation this time of year. While some areas will see
water ponding and some increase in stream flows, the flooding
potential looks marginal at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 124 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Behind the Upper trough that will move through the region Sunday
and keep the surface low associated with this ongoing system
south of the Ozarks, strong upper level ridging will build in to
replace it to start the next work week. This broad and
extensive ridge will allow for ample sunshine and a warming
trend to develop into the middle of next week. Mid level height
rises and 850mb temps will increase into the 10-15C range by
Tuesday and especially Wednesday. These temps are near the 99th
percentile and when combined with increasing southwest winds
will lead to well above normal temperatures. Much of the region
has a good potential to afternoon high Tuesday and Wednesday in
the 70s. These high temps will be with 5 degrees of records
(see climate section below).

With the unusually warm temperatures and high pressure, i.e.
dry air, moving into the Ozarks for the middle of next week,
elevated fire concerns will return. The well above normal temps,
gusty winds and ongoing drought conditions will need to be
monitored as a result and could lead to an potential fire
danger however the weekend rains could keep the threat somewhat
lower.

Synoptic models do have a rather strong upper level storm
system that move into the Pacific Northwest and digs into the
Desert Southwest by the middle of next week that could produce
some weather for the region towards the end of next week. This
will be monitored through the next several days to see how
things progress.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

For the 18z TAFS, rain has stopped for now at JLN/SGF as a large
area of rain has shifted to the northeast. Another southwest to
northeast oriented band will stream northeast into south central
MO including BBG this afternoon into tonight. The main upper trough
and surface system were still to the southwest and will push
through the area during this forecast period. This will bring
some MVFR initially and some IFR and LIFR later today and
tonight as the ceilings begin to lower. There is a drizzle
signal behind the main rain as the ceilings lower tonight into
Sunday morning. Gusty southeast to south winds this afternoon
with become northerly behind a cold front late tonight and
Sunday morning.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026


Record High Temperatures:

February 17:
KSGF: 73/1911
KJLN: 74/2011
KVIH: 73/2017

February 18:
KSGF: 74/2016
KJLN: 78/1986
KVIH: 72/1991
KUNO: 77/1986

February 19:
KSGF: 75/2017
KUNO: 73/1981

Record Precipitation:

February 14:
KSGF: 2.10/1908
KJLN: 1.54/1992
KVIH: 1.50/1949
KUNO: 1.46/1949

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Burchfield