007
FXUS63 KSGF 121120
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
620 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms over west central MO
  into southeast KS this evening. Main risk will be with
  damaging wind up to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters.

- Well above normal temperature are expected late week into next
  weekend with highs in the 80s late week into next weekend.

- There`s a 20-40% chance for thunderstorms across the entire
  area intermittently from Friday through Sunday. If you have
  outdoor plans next weekend, be sure to keep up with the latest
  forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Skies are clear early this morning with low temperatures in the
mid 50s. Across the Springfield area, there has been smoke on
the western side of the city for most of the day and has
lingered overnight due to the light winds and likely inversion
that is in place. Visibilities have been reduced on this side of
the city and have dipped as low as 4 miles according to the SGF
observation sensor. If you have been impacted by this localized
smoke, relief is hopefully on the way with the increase in
pressure gradient later today. Southwesterly winds will gust
around 25 to 30 mph by late morning. Moisture return will be
slow today and our dewpoints will struggle to get our of the 40s
and 50s.

This dry air will limit our chance to see severe weather this
evening. Looking at model soundings over the Joplin area where
the environment is the most favorable, there is abundant dry air
at the low and mid levels that the storms will have to overcome.
We could still see an isolated severe storm or two over the
Marginal risk (1/5) area, but even in that area the cap may be
too strong for a severe storm to develop. Main hazards for
today with any storm that becomes severe would be quarter sized
hail and 60 mph damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat likely
went away due to lack of instability and low-level moisture.
LCL heights are only marginally favorable near 1300m across the
area. As for timing and chance of precipitation, there`s a
20-30% chance for thunderstorms moving into our CWA near sunset
(5-7pm). The cold front will move northwest to southeast and
will push out of the area near 10pm-12am.

Wednesday will be sunny and warm with northerly winds. Highs
will reach the mid 70s and dewpoints will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s making for a pleasant day. Wind start to turn
southerly again on Wednesday night and cloud cover will move in
from west to east. Expect lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Mid-level high pressure will move into the Central Plains and
bring us warm temperatures to end the week. Highs will creep
into the mid 80s for Thursday and through the weekend.
Dewpoints rise into the mid 60s by Friday and stay elevated
through the weekend. This will make it feel hot and humid and
give us an early taste of summer. There are also a few chances
for rain this weekend as a surface low begins to slowly work its
way towards us, traversing over the Southern Plains. Right now,
there`s a 20-40% chance for rain across the area intermittently
from Friday through Sunday. Also should note, if the clouds are
thick enough with those rain chances, we may be a couple of
degrees cooler than forecasted this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Nearby smoke at SGF has led to lowered visibilities around 4 to
6 SM with haze and MVFR ceilings. Smoke may linger through the
morning until winds can become gusty enough over the next few
hours to help disperse the smoke. Otherwise, VFR ceilings are
expected elsewhere. Southwesterly winds will gust to 20 knots
by the late morning hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria