585
FXUS63 KSGF 061941
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
241 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for entire area
  through this evening. The warning has been extended through
  Monday evening for counties west of Highway 65. Maximum
  afternoon heat index values around 105+.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm, capable of
  producing damaging wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph.

- Hot and dry conditions are worsening drought and increasing
  fire danger. Above average temperatures are likely this week
  with highs in the 90s to around 100 Tuesday and Wednesday.
  Additional heat headlines may be warranted.

- There is a 50-80 % chance of showers and thunderstorms
  Wednesday evening into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Today-Tonight:
An upper-level ridge remains intact over the region, with a
backdoor cold front expected to nudge into the area today. An
additional outflow boundary extends into eastern KS from
overnight convection. An upper-level disturbance overrides these
boundaries today and provides a source of energy. The
combination of the strong ridge/high pressure just to our west
and the weak disturbance sets the stage for another hot day
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The extreme heat remains a big headline this afternoon, with an
Extreme Heat Warning across the entire area. Temperatures once
again sore into the upper 90s to lower 100s. Dewpoints in the
upper 60s to near 70, heat index values will approach 105 to
110. This is part of persistent and relentless heat wave, that
has now seen extreme temperatures and heat index values for
over a week. The backdoor cold front provides "some" relief
across the area into Monday, though is relatively minimal as to
be discussed later in the AFD.

The other headline for today is scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening. Compared to
yesterday, this activity is a bit better in coverage.
Additionally, the environment is favorable for a few isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms. This can be gleaned by Ozarks
Pulse Severe Thunderstorm Index (OPSTI), capturing favorable
lapse rates and instability in the vicinity of weak steering
flow and uncapped environment. Additionally, the environment is
characterized by ample DCAPE and PWATs around 1.8+ inches. This
would suggest a few strong updrafts that quickly collapse
(precipitable loading), supporting the potential of damaging
wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph. While not all locations will see
activity today, it is important to remain Weather Aware! Any
rainfall will be beneficial to ongoing drought conditions, that
continue to worsen through this heat wave.

Scattered showers and thunderstorm gradually diminish late this
evening with the loss of daytime heating, though some CAMs do
keep activity in the area to as late as midnight. Minimal
overnight relief, particularly across the western half of the
area, with lows ranging from middle 60s (east) to middle 70s
(west).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Monday-Thursday:
As we progress into Monday, the ridge will be displaced further
west, leaving our area on the eastern periphery. This will
support slight cooler temperatures than the previous week for
some, with the extreme heat persisting elsewhere. Across the
eastern half of the area, expect highs in the lower to middle
90s. Meanwhile, upper 90s to around 100 persist across the
western half of the area. This will once again support heat
index values around 105, providing high enough confidence to
extend the Extreme Warning for counties west of Highway 65.
Counties to the east will see heat index values top out in the
upper 90s to around 100. At this time, confidence is not high
enough to warrant a heat product. The ridge subtly shifts back
east into Tuesday and Wednesday, with upper 90s to lower 100s
returning to the entire area. This will likely warrant
additional heat headlines as progress into early week.

Additionally, the area remains dry through Monday and Tuesday,
ahead of pattern change late Wednesday into Thursday. The upper-
level ridge flattens across the central CONUS, allowing a
frontal passage to sweep through the region. NBM PoPs have
continued to increase for Wednesday evening/night into Thursday,
upwards of 50-80% along the front. Ensembles are coming into
better agreement on at least some beneficial rainfall. Though
there is still some uncertainty on the exact corridor of highest
rainfall amounts. NBM depicts the following probabilities:

Prob of > 0.25 inch: 50-80%
Prob of > 0.50 inch: 40-70%
Prob of > 1.00 inch: 20-40%

Subsequent forecasts will work to pin down rainfall amounts.
Nonetheless, any rainfall will be beneficial given the
worsening drought conditions, further amplified by the extreme
heat.

Next Weekend:
Ensemble guidance diverges a bit into next week, but the general
trend support a bit cooler temperatures, yet still 5 to 10
degrees above normal for early to mid September. This would
correlate to highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s. Additional
shortwaves translate through the flow, supporting low rain
chances (10-30%).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the area through
the afternoon and evening. There remains some uncertainty on the
extent of coverage, thus PROB30 groups are being utilized to
capture this activity. Brief periods of MVFR flight conditions
may accompany any activity over the terminals, with ceilings as
low as 3000 to 5000 feet, in addition to reduced visibilities
around 4 to 6 miles. Otherwise, light northeast winds at 5 to 10
knots, becoming more east to southeast into tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Record High Temperatures:

September 6:
KSGF: 100/1960
KJLN: 101/1954
KUNO: 101/1990

September 7:
KJLN: 101/1998

September 8:
KSGF: 98/1960
KJLN: 98/1955
KVIH: 100/1901
KUNO: 99/1990

September 9:
KSGF: 98/1939
KJLN: 100/1947
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 99/1980

September 10:
KJLN: 96/2000

September 12:
KSGF: 97/1939
KJLN: 97/1956
KUNO: 96/1980


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 6:
KSGF: 76/1925

September 7:
KSGF: 77/1899

September 9:
KSGF: 75/1939

September 10:
KSGF: 74/1938

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ066-067-077-
     078-088-089-093-094-101>103.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-090>092-095>098-104>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Burchfield