265
FXUS63 KSGF 240758
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
258 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures into or through next week. Highs in
  the middle 70s to around 80 and dry weather are expected
  through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A high pressure ridge is dominating the eastern half of the country
with a cutoff low moving through the desert southwest. This high
pressure is bringing height rises and clear skies to the Ozarks with
a light southeasterly wind. A slight increase in upper-level
moisture will result in increased cloud cover throughout the day
today, but there will still be plenty of clearing for highs to reach
the upper 70s (and low 80s for some). Southerly flow will add a WAA
component, also contributing to the highs 10+ degrees above normal
for late October. Lows will also be warm (climatologically
speaking), especially with cloud cover increasing tonight --
generally in the upper 40s in south- central Missouri up to the
mid-50s in SW MO/SE KS. Sunday will largely be a repeat of today
with slightly more cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

To start the workweek, shortwave energy ejecting out of the
southwest will result in very minor height falls that act to
decrease our highs by a few degrees, putting them closer to the mid-
70s. Moisture will be too meager for any meaningful precipitation
chances, though the NBM puts a small pocket of 20% PoPs in eastern
Kansas Monday night. All in all, the impact of the shortwave will be
minor, and we will be back to regularly scheduled highs in the upper
70s by Wednesday.

Global models essentially depict the low pressure system currently
in the desert southwest lifting sharply northwest of Missouri over
the course of the week and impacting the southern Plains and Midwest
very little. After the shortwave moves out Wednesday, we return to a
zonal/slightly ridged pattern until potentially late week as some
disorganized shortwave energy trails in the wake of the more
dominant troughing that lifted to the north. Models begin to diverge
quite a bit on this scenario at this lead time, and while this could
be the next most probable rain maker for the area over Halloweekend,
there is little certainty at this time. If it pans out, we could
also see a slight decrease in temperatures in addition to rain, but
such a weak synoptic feature likely wouldn`t lower highs by much.
The NBM currently buys in to the precipitation scenario, and has an
interquartile range for highs on Halloween between 67 and 75 for
Springfield (63 being the normal high). We will be watching this
feature closely as models are able to better resolve it with
shorter lead time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. High pressure is
allowing for mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds
below 10kts. High level clouds will steadily increase through
the period. There will be a subtle more southerly shift this
afternoon, quickly returning to southeasterly by evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson