501
FXUS63 KSGF 301901
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are 10-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly
  west of Branson to Springfield to Osage Beach and especially
  west of I-49 on Sunday.

- There are 20-60% chances for showers and thunderstorms across
  portions of the area at times Monday into Tuesday.

- Below-average temperatures are likely through the beginning of
  September.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Current conditions and synoptic overview: Upper level analysis
and water vapor imagery show a a large scale trough pushing into
the east coast with broad northwest flow over the central U.S.
with an embedded upper level shortwave over the high plains.
Cloud cover was beginning to spread into the western CWA ahead
of the shortwave. Temperatures have risen into the low to mid
80s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s.

Shortwave energy will continue to track southeast into the the
area tonight and Sunday, however the main moisture axis will
remain mainly west of the area, extending into our western CWA.
We are expecting some showers to push into the western CWA
tonight into Sunday, but highest pops(30-50%) will remain
along and west of the I-49 corridor in far western MO and
southeast KS. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s. Highs
on Sunday in the upper 70s in the far west with the better rain
chances, and the mid 80s generally east of the U.S. 65 corridor.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The main part of the upper wave will track across the area on
Monday into Monday night with rain chances increasing over more
of the area during the day Monday and Monday night(30-60%).
There will be a little bit of uncapped instability so some
embedded non severe thunderstorms will be possible.

A stronger upper level low will begin to dive south into the
northern plains and this and associated cold front will also
bring some scattered showers and storms to the area by midweek,
but of greater significance will be the colder air moving in
behind the front. Lows by Wednesday night will be in the mid 40s
to near 50 for most of the area with highs on Thursday in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Lows by Friday morning will again be in
the mid 40s to near 50 and may approach some record lows(see
climate section).


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For the 18z TAFS, we are expecting VFR conditions through the
period. There will be an increase in mid/high level clouds this
afternoon and tonight at the TAF sites. Southeast wind may gust
up to 18kts this afternoon, but will likely become light and
variable tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025


Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

September 4:
KSGF: 66/2008


Record Low Temperatures:

September 4:
KVIH: 44/1974

September 5:
KSGF: 47/1974
KJLN: 44/1974
KVIH: 44/1902
KUNO: 44/1997



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Lindenberg