047
FXUS63 KSGF 142319
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
619 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (less than 30 percent) for an afternoon or evening
  storm south of I-44 today. Higher chances (40-70%) Wednesday
  and Thursday afternoons with localized heavy rainfall.

- Warm and dry conditions expected this weekend with heat   indices
in the 90s to around 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a strong mid level high across
the northern plains, stretching back into the Rockies with
an upper level low over Mississippi. A dry mid level airmass
remains in place across the area which was evident on the 12z
SGF sounding. Higher moisture was evident east of the area with
a PW value of 1.82 inches at Nashville, TN. Surface winds
remained out of the east with dewpoints generally in the 60s.
Moisture was slowly increasing from the southeast and a
cumulus field has developed. Temps have warmed into the 80s.

Afternoon/Evening Rain Chances Today and Wednesday: The upper
level low will continue to slowly move west today however it has
trended a little slower which will keep the isolated
shower/storm potential lower for this afternoon/evening across
south central Missouri. Most locations will remain dry.

On Wednesday, the upper low and higher moisture quality will
inch closer to the area. HREF mean PW values greater than 1.75
inches will likely arrive and given ML CAPE around 1500j/kg,
would expect a cumulus field to develop quickly in the morning
with scattered to numerous showers and storms developing in the
afternoon and evening hours. The highest chances will be along
and south of Interstate 44. Pulse severe potential is low
generally due to the lack of stronger instability therefore the
main concern will be with any slow moving storms that can
produce heavy rainfall rates over a long enough period of time
for localized flooding. The latest HREF PMM data shows several
very small/localized pockets of 1-2 inches of rainfall with many
other areas seeing less than that. Higher rainfall pockets
(greater than 2 inches) seem to be favored further south in
Arkansas, closer to the center of the low. Clouds and precip
will likely keep high temps lower than previous days with the
exception of Kansas and western Missouri.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Rain Chances Thursday: While the main low/disturbance will be
west of the area, additional pieces of energy look to rotate
through the area a little longer into Thursday. Therefore a
similar day to Wednesday is shaping up with afternoon and
evening scattered storms. Rain chances have now increased into
the 40-70% range. Given slow storm motions and high PWs, locally
heavy rainfall should occur and the WPC now has the area in a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall. This could result in
localized flooding. Clouds and precip should keep high temps in
the 80s again with a few locations west of Springfield pushing
90.

Higher temps Friday into the Weekend: Ensemble cluster analysis
continues to depict an upper ridge attempting to re establish
itself across the Rockies. This would favor surface temps
climbing closer to 90 if not reach the lower 90s by Saturday.
While heat indicies are currently forecast to only reach the
upper 90s to around 100, the heat risk tool show potential for
the area to reach the moderate to major category. Rain chances
are currently less than 20 percent given the strength of the
warm air aloft. However we will need to monitor for the
potential return to northwest flow aloft next week if the ridge
shifts further west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Isolated showers and a few storms across south- central
Missouri and northern Arkansas will continue throughout the
evening before winding down overnight.

More widespread convection will develop Wednesday afternoon
after 18Z, which will bring an on and off risk for heavy rain
and lightning. Storms will still be scattered in nature,
however, so any lightning mention was relegated to a PROB30
group at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Didio