123
FXUS63 KSGF 292203
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
503 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures will be
  around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (40-70%) at times
  across portions of the area from Friday night into Sunday
  morning. Periods of dry time accompany this system.

- Increasing confidence in additional rain chances early to the
  middle of next week but there is still uncertainty with with
  specific details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Continued warm and dry conditions for the most part through
Friday as 850mb temps remain around 13-14C, resulting in high
temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s. For
Friday, dry air will push in from the southeast, resulting in
afternoon minimum RH values of 30-40% along/south of I-44, but
winds will remain relatively light, keeping fire weather threats
under control.

As weak disturbances move through the area, there is a 15-20%
chance for light rain over central MO tonight and 15-30% over
far southeast KS and far west-central MO on Friday. Dry air
will limit potential, coverage, and amounts of rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Better rain chances move in on Saturday into Saturday night as
stronger shortwave energy moves in, along with greater moisture.
There is a 50-70% chance for showers and storms, but coverage
looks to be scattered and all day washouts are not expected.
While some areas (particularly the far NW CWA) may have some
areas that stay dry or see very little rainfall, other areas
have seen a slight uptick in forecast precip amounts. Still,
amounts will be light at 0.05-0.25 inches. A few thunderstorms
will also be possible. Look for highs in the low to mid 70s
Saturday.

Much of Sunday will be dry with highs in the 70s.

Still watching the potential for a strong system to move through
the region early to middle of next week. Model spread is still
significant with this system, with difference in all aspects of
the system. Ensembles show surface low track locations ranging
from northern Texas to the far northern CONUS. Ensemble clusters
are showing little preference for one scenario over another,
with differences in timing, strength, and track, made worse by
multiple pieces of energy that may or may not phase and impact
the system further. Outcomes generally range from a strong
closed low moving into the area (worst case: Widespread rain,
thunderstorms, maybe a severe and flooding risk) to a weaker,
positively tiled upper wave (best case: Scattered showers and
storms). Current NBM chances for showers and thunderstorms peak
at 70-80%. Timing of greatest chances is currently Monday night
into Tuesday, but that may change. Confidence is too low to
discuss specifics, but those with interest should continue to
monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF
period. South-southeasterly surface winds will remain light,
becoming variable overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Melto