796
FXUS63 KSGF 092248
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
548 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning along a corridor roughly from the
  Oklahoma border to the Lake of the Ozarks region Sunday
  through Wednesday. Heat Index values around 105 are expected
  on a daily basis in this area. A Heat Advisory is also in
  effect for locations farther south and east through the same
  timeframe with daily Heat Index values expected to be around
  100.

- Rain chances return Wednesday through Saturday (15-30%)
  especially north of Interstate 44, however confidence remains
  low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The upper-level pattern across the country today is fairly zonal.
There is weak upper troughing across the Great Lakes with ridging
deepening with a high pressure center over the Desert Southwest.
This ridging will slowly build into the area over the next several
days, locking us into a pattern characterized by south-southwesterly
flow and rising heights. Precipitation will be suppressed, and WAA
will be maximized. Heat Index values 100-105+ are expected for
several days. For these reasons, the previous Extreme Heat Watch has
been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning beginning at noon today and
lasting through Wednesday evening (for now). This covers an area
from roughly the Oklahoma border to the Lake of the Ozarks and
areas northwest. The rest of the CWA has been placed under a
Heat Advisory, valid for the same time period (for now.
Extensions/upgrades may be needed.)

With NBM interquartile spreads of only 3-4 degrees, it is safe to
say that highs today will warm into the mid-90s in the east up to
around 100 along the Kansas border. With dewpoints in the upper 60s,
Heat Index values are projected to exceed 100 for most of the area.
Some locations within the Extreme Heat Warning will approach 110. It
will be mostly sunny throughout the afternoon with no precipitation
expected. Thankfully, the southerly breeze up to about 15 mph will
keep things from feeling too stuffy, though it is streaming more
warmth into the area.

Though we will have clear skies tonight, WAA advection doesn`t let
up much, and it will be hard to completely recover from the intense
heat of the day. Lows barely drop below 80 for the Warning area,
with temperatures cooling into the low and middle 70s for the rest
of the area. These warm overnight lows are a contributing factor in
our decision to issue heat headlines, as the lack of relief from the
heat overnight will result in a prolonged period of danger in
addition to the daytime Heat Index values themselves.

The pattern holds through tomorrow, increasing high temperatures a
couple of degrees from today. As is typical when dominated by high
pressure, Monday will be much the same in terms of sensible weather.
Mostly sunny, similar wind speed and direction, hot. Low
temperatures will also be a couple of degrees warmer tomorrow
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

You`re going to be shocked at this, but Tuesday is also looking dry
and hot with southwesterly flow. Confidence in the heat is still
pretty good with interquartile spreads of about 5 degrees (mid 90s
to 100 degrees).

Shortwave energy will be riding over the ridge Tuesday night into
Wednesday, which could bring some isolated showers in south-central
Missouri throughout the day. Despite the introduction of a little
cloud cover, Wednesday looks to be the hottest day this week.
Southwesterly flow will be perfectly poised to advect in the warmest
airmass possible. Highs will soar to near 100 for most, with only
those in the lower elevations out east remaining in the mid 90s.
Heat Index values will approach 110 for much of the area.

The ridge appears to start breaking down Wednesday night. Global
models show more shortwave energy moving into the region and surface
low pressure centers/fronts beginning to take over, at least across
northern and central Missouri. As it stands, most of the
precipitation potential remains north of our area. Much like last
week, the surface front looks to stall to our north rather than
truly pass through, allowing hot conditions to persist particularly
for the south and west. There will definitely be a noticeable
cooldown Thursday through late week for those generally west of 65,
but Heat Index values will still be near 100. Locations along the
southern and western Missouri borders in particular may need heat
headline extensions beyond Wednesday.

The CPC still expects Extreme Heat risk headed into the 8-14 day
period, so summer is definitely still in full swing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF
period. South-southwesterly winds will continue to be breezy,
with gusts up to 20-30kts especially impacting KJLN. Winds
should slightly diminish further into this evening, however
gusts up to 20kts will still be possible at KJLN, with sustained winds
up to 12kts through the remainder of the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097-
     101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077>080-088-089-093-094-101.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ070-071-081>083-
     090>092-095>098-102>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Melto