326
FXUS63 KSGF 241117
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
617 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast Kansas
  and southwest Missouri into this morning. Damaging wind to 60
  mph and hail to the size of quarters are the primary severe
  weather hazards. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding
  are also possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A difficult forecast given models significant diverging from
previous solutions. However, ingredients are still in place for
thunderstorms to expand in coverage through the night and linger
into Monday morning, some of which may be strong to severe. 60
mph winds and quarter size hail are the potential severe risks,
with flooding also possible. 00Z HREF LPMM data continues to
show potential for very localized amounts up to 3-6 inches. The
greatest potential for convection is south and west of
Springfield.

For the rest of the today, look for highs ranging from the low
80s to low 90s, warmest west where heat index values near 100
are possible this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

An upper level ridge will remain west of area this week. Highs
will generally range from the mid/upper 80s across central
Missouri to the low/middle 90s across extreme southeastern
Kansas and far southwestern Missouri each day this week into
next weekend. The region will remain in northwest flow this this
week. Ensemble data shows an upper level disturbance moving
through the northwest flow bringing 20-40% chances for showers
and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to develop early this morning,
impacting all TAF sites. Expect VFR conditions by this afternoon
and persisting through the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus