048
FXUS63 KSGF 301954
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
254 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms
  east of Highway 65 Friday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind
  gusts will be the primary risk, with a secondary risk for
  hail and tornadoes.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures and windy conditions this
  weekend, especially Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to
  lower/middle 80s and gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Synoptic Overview:

An upper-level trough axis is set up over the east coast with a
broad ridge across the central and western CONUS. Water vapor
imagery shows the beginnings of a mid-level cyclone developing
over the Upper-Midwest this afternoon. On radar, residual
showers have lingered in the vicinity of a boundary stretching
southeast from the Midwest down to the Gulf states.

Showers and Storms Tonight into Friday:

Convection will come in two rounds as the aforementioned low
pushes through Missouri; the first will be with the warm front
after midnight. The greatest coverage with this round will be
along and north of the Highway 54 corridor within the zone of
stronger lift. Hazards with this round will be lightning and
periods of locally heavy rainfall producing totals around 1
inch.

The second round will manifest along and ahead of the trailing
cold front that moves through Missouri Saturday afternoon and
evening. It remains to be seen how distinct this second round
will be from the first if convection lingers through the morning
and early afternoon. That said, the second round will bring the
potential for strong to severe storms. Models depict the mid-
level low deepening during the day and becoming rather dynamic
for a late July system. MLCAPE values are progged to reach
between 1500-2000 J/kg with diurnal heating; however, there
will be some mid- level capping to overcome, particularly across
western Missouri, which will limit mid- level lapse rates and
overall severe potential for these locations. Coverage is also
in question here, but if storms do form, the primary hazard
would be hail to quarters. This is a very low-confidence risk
within SPC`s Marginal risk area.

As you look toward the eastern Ozarks and eastern Missouri,
this capping becomes less of a problem, allowing storms to be
more surface- based. Deep-layer shear magnitudes look fairly
marginal between 25-35 kt but are largely orthogonal to the
front. Therefore, convection may initially be semi- discrete
before conglomerating into loosely organized clusters and line
segments. As this occurs, damaging winds will become the primary
hazard. The 18Z CAM guidance seems to support this evolution. This
is also where forecast hodographs become rather curvy in the
low levels. If the progged 0-1 km SRH values of 250 m2s2 align
with pockets of sufficient low- level CAPE, then a tornado risk
may become apparent. The SPC Day 2 outlook was upgraded to a
Slight risk for eastern Missouri, primarily for the wind risk,
but it also includes a 2% tornado risk. The window of the
greatest severe thunderstorm risk is between 4pm-11pm.

Possible Heat Headlines on Friday:

Warm, moist air will continue to advect into extreme southwest
Missouri and southeast Kansas on Friday. Current deterministic
NBM heat indices are right around--or even slightly above--105
degrees for these locations. However, given the abundant cloud
cover and potential for pesky convection to linger into the
afternoon, confidence was not high enough to issue a Heat
Advisory with this afternoon forecast package. The overnight
update will be able to better assess this potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

A cooler and drier airmass will move in behind the
aforementioned cold front on Saturday. In fact, high
temperatures are only progged to reach the mid 70s to low 80s,
which is around 10 to 15 degrees below the climatological
average. A well mixed thermo profile and modest surface pressure
gradient will support breezy northerly winds as well, with
frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph.

Ensemble clusters depict varying solutions in how quickly they
pivot Friday`s system through the northeastern CONUS;
regardless, it will largely be out of influence for our CWA. At
most, the eastern Ozarks could experience a few showers behind
the low on Monday and Tuesday should the slower solution pan out.
Out west, the flattened ridge will persist throughout much of
the week. This will keep precipitation chances low with no
obvious signal for widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Scattered showers will persist across west and southwest
Missouri at the start of the TAF period and may bring periodic
(mostly light) rain to the terminals. More widespread showers
and possibly thunderstorms will move into the region after 09Z.

Winds will initially prevail out of the southeast this afternoon
before shifting to the southwest after 12Z, occasionally gusting
up to 20 kt.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio