056
FXUS63 KSGF 262210
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
510 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and mostly dry through the week. Temperatures will be
  around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Halloween weekend may be a wet one, with rain chances
  increasing to 35-50% Friday night and remaining elevated
  through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview:

Upper-air analysis reveals (at least) three shortwaves embedded
within the larger longwave trough over the western CONUS as the
ridge axis that has kept our weather dry lately shifts east
this afternoon. A surface low was situated over northwest Kansas
with a warm front extending east into northern Missouri and a
diffuse cold front to the south into the Texas panhandle. Scattered
mid and high clouds across eastern Missouri are shifting to the
east with the ridge, resulting in clearing skies today.

Warm and Mostly Dry through the Week:

A lack of deep synoptic-scale ascent and modest moisture return
will limit rain chances in the Missouri Ozarks through
Thursday. Global models exhibit consensus in lifting a pair of
shortwaves through the Plains Tuesday through Thursday, which
will act to force a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm ahead
of a surface cold front across eastern Kansas and northern
Missouri. It`s possible a few light showers or sprinkles could
spread into our far northwestern CWA Tuesday night and again
Thursday morning, but chances remain low (10-20%), and most
areas will remain completely dry.

Southerly winds and warm air advection will keep temperatures
above the climatological average through the short term.
Wednesday and Thursday will likely be the warmest days of the
forecast period as weak ridging takes hold behind the
aforementioned shortwaves. Forecast highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s are around 15 degrees above average for this time of
year.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Guidance continues to suggest that the train of shortwaves
undercutting the ridging across the eastern CONUS will see its next
push on Thursday night, with rain chances progressively invading
further south by Friday evening. Daytime rain chances on Friday
remain fairly low at this point due to the ensemble predictability
limit, with 15-20% PoPs staying west of I-49 during the day, but as
higher-resolution regional guidance begins to get into range through
the week, these PoPs will likely become more refined spatially and
temporally as mesoscale influences and the location of the
shortwaves become better resolved.

Global ensembles and deterministic models remain well in agreement
that the eventual breakdown of the ridge and widespread precip
chances will be here by Friday night and Saturday, with an upper-
level low lifting into the Southern Plains overnight Friday into
Saturday. As a result, broad-brushed 35-50% rain chances on Saturday
(Halloween)currently spread across the entire forecast area. It is
possible at this point that Saturday does not remain a complete
washout depending on the finer-scale details that are not yet
resolved by longer range models, but because of the lack of
certainty in placement, timing, and intensity of the wave due to how
far out in the forecast period Saturday still is, we don`t have many
other details to report for the trick-or-treat forecast at this
time, so stay tuned through the week as details become more clear.

As far as temperatures go, cloud cover associated with the
shortwaves/rainfall will have the potential to limit temperatures
some over the weekend. Signals don`t currently suggest there will be
significant air mass modification (aka, a cold frontal passage) as
the shortwave moves through Friday night/Saturday, so cloud cover
and rainfall will be the primary factor to monitor as far as
temperatures go this weekend, otherwise remaining relatively steady.
However, this also means there won`t be a major drop in
temperatures, so current guidance suggesting highs between 65-75
degrees seems like a fairly safe bet, even at such an extended time
range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Scattered to broken high clouds will move into western Missouri
this evening and persist into Tuesday. Winds will generally
prevail out of the south but may take on more of a southeasterly
component on occasion, likely remaining less than 15 kt.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Didio