780
FXUS63 KSGF 080006
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
706 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tornado Watch issued for areas along and near Highway 65 until
  7 PM.

- Flood Watch in effect until 1 PM Monday the entire area.
  Quick 2-3 inch per hour downpours will promote a flash
  flooding risk for areas that see repeated storms. Total
  rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches expected, with spotty amounts
  up to 5-7 inches possible.

- Above normal temperatures and humidity next week will lead to
  Heat Index values in the mid-90s to lower 100s. First heat of
  the season and warm nighttime temperatures may heighten heat-
  related impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Today will be a bit soggy for some folks with a Flood Watch in
effect from 1 PM today through 1 PM Monday for all the counties
in our CWA. Rain will continue to move in from the south due to
the incoming surface low pressure system. So far, the forecast
is on track for flash flooding concerns today and tomorrow. The
atmosphere is very tropical-like right now and is primed for a
heavy rainfall event. Our PWATs from the 12z sounding came in at
1.74" which matches our max for this time of year. What is a
bit different is how this flash flooding event may occur. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, this will not be a
widespread flash flooding event where everyone sees a ton of
rain at once. This will be like a tropical disturbance in that
the heaviest rain may fall in bands and may be localized to
certain areas. The latest HREF LPMM has wider footprint of 2-3"
of rain falling and a swatch of localized higher-end rainfall
totals near 7-10" over SE KS and far SW MO. Though, the 7-10"
outlier will be highly localized, so we`ll stick to messaging
the upper end 5-7" amount. The storms that will be coming
through aren`t necessarily slow moving, but may train over the
same areas multiple times through the rest of today and into
tomorrow. These storms are likely to be efficient rainfall
producers and contain 2-3"/hr rain rates. The CAMs are also
showing the potential for a backbuilding MCS tonight somewhere
near SE KS and SW MO. The MCS potential really gets going once
the LLJ kicks in overnight. This is likely the reason for the
higher rainfall totals over in that area.

There is a Slight risk (2/5) for severe weather today with
mostly a tornado/wind risk. This is why a small/short-fused
tornado watch has been issued until 7 PM tonight for counties
along Highway 65 where the environment for tornadoes is
maximized. This set up is messy, and these spin-ups will be very
quick and brief. Shear and instability are becoming more
favorable as the evening goes on and as the surface low moves
northeast. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
night with the tornado threat winding down as diurnal heating
decreases.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

High pressure starts to build in by Tuesday bringing us a period of
dry and hot weather. This is when our first heatwave of the year
will make its appearance. We will see heat indices reaching the
lower 100s across the area for Tuesday through Thursday. Highs
will be in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the 70s making it
feel hot and humid. The heat risk for this heatwave is between
Major and Extreme levels. This means that the heat will likely
affect anyone without effective cooling and or adequate
hydration. This is especially true with little to no overnight
relief. Though, by the end of the week we will have a cold front
move through and give us a break in the heat and bring us
another round of showers and thunderstorms.

There is the potential to see some severe storms with this frontal
passage as the CIPS/CSU severe probabilities highlight areas near
central MO. Though, the better severe set up may be to our north
over the Great Lakes region. Stay up to date with the latest
forecast as we get closer to the event. Either way, we`ll see highs
about 10 degrees cooler in the 80s to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Thunderstorms are currently moving through the area, temporarily
reducing CIGVIS to MVFR/IFR cats. These conditions are transient
and frequently bouncing back to VFR. Precipitation chances
decrease to PROB30 over the next few hours, but showers and
thunderstorms build back in after 06Z. More widespread MVFR
ceilings move into SWMO around 12Z. Low clouds begin to clear
out near the end of the TAF period. Exclusive of erratic winds
around thunderstorms, surface winds will generally be southerly
and remain below 15 kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Nelson