709
FXUS63 KSGF 272310
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures increase by a few degrees each day Friday-
  Monday, with highs in the upper 90s by Sunday.

- Multiple days of high temperatures between 90-100 F and heat
  index values of 95-110 F are expected Monday-Thursday, with
  Major (Level 3 of 4) to Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk
  expected across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Synoptic Overview:
Quiet conditions continue through the remainder of the week.
High pressure aloft is currently centered over the Four Corners
region, with an expansive ridge extending northward into the
Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The apex of the ridge is sandwiched
between troughing on either side of it. Surface high pressure is
building across the Midwest, with the greater Ozarks region
under northwest flow aloft this afternoon.

A drier air mass has pushed into the area, visible on water
vapor satellite early this afternoon. Moisture increases to near
saturation at the bottom of the elevated mixed layer, which has
resulted in an active cu field developing this afternoon.
Temperatures have warmed to low to mid-80s in central Missouri,
and to above 90 degrees in far southern and western Missouri and
southeast Kansas. Afternoon mixing has brought occasional gusts
up to 15-25 mph to portions of the area, but winds should calm
after sunset this evening. Skies will clear tonight before a
general rinse and repeat for tomorrow, with similar temperatures
(mid- to upper 80s in central Missouri, lower 90s in southern
and western reaches) but slightly drier air. Scattered fair
weather cumulus clouds will develop late morning through the
afternoon, with some gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon again
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The ridge to our west starts sliding east on Saturday, with a
warm frontal passage across the area late Saturday night or
Sunday. Ensembles are in good agreement that temperatures will
exceed normal values and remain above normal for several days,
with a blocking high setting up over the southeast U.S. early in
the week and remaining there through at least Thursday. Extreme Forecast
Index (EFI) values for max temps remain at 0.85-0.95 (as high
as 0.97, even), with Shift of Tails values generally below 1
with some localized areas where Shift of Tails values reach
around 1, suggesting high confidence in anomalous temperatures
but not necessarily an extreme event. High temperatures climb to
upper 90s and even triple digits on Sunday, and stay in that
96-100 degree range through the end of the forecast period next
Thursday.

Additionally, the return to southerly low-level flow will advect
moisture back into the region, though the highest PWATs appear
to lag behind the warm front by 12-24 hours. Heat indices break
triple digits in the far western reaches of the area on Sunday,
but once moisture spreads across the area Monday, widespread
100+ degree heat indices can be expected and will persist
through much of the week. As such, Heat Risk increases to Major
(Level 3 of 4, affecting anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration) on Sunday and remains there through
Wednesday. Pockets of Extreme Heat Risk (Level 4 of 4, rare
and/or long- duration extreme heat with little to no overnight
relief affecting anyone without effective cooling and/or
hydration) begin to develop on Monday, with the Extreme Risk
areas expanding Tuesday and Wednesday. Generally, the areas that
will see highest temperatures, and thus highest heat indices
and overall risk, are to the west and north of the plateau.

As a shortwave trough pushes across the northern Plains this
weekend, the pressure gradient across the Midwest tightens,
increasing winds to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph west of
Highway 65 on Saturday and Sunday. RHs decrease to around 30% in
the afternoon both days this weekend, which could result in some
areas with locally elevated fire weather conditions, especially
with today`s Drought Monitor update indicating that drought has
expanded northward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Northerly winds
around 10 kts will decrease to light easterly winds by 06Z.
Clear skies and no precipitation expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026


Record High Temperatures:

August 30:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 103/2000

August 31:
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 100/2000

September 1:
KVIH: 99/1953

September 2:
KSGF: 101/2000
KVIH: 99/1899


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 30:
KSGF: 73/2013
KJLN: 76/1945
KVIH: 75/1951

August 31:
KSGF: 76/2011
KJLN: 80/2011
KVIH: 75/1980

September 1:
KSGF: 77/1922
KJLN: 80/2011
KUNO: 74/1989
KVIH: 76/2011

September 2:
KSGF: 76/1922
KJLN: 77/1961
KUNO: 73/1980
KVIH: 75/1898

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Nelson
CLIMATE...Camden