273
FXUS63 KSGF 071121
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
521 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front moves through this morning with drizzle lingering
  through the late morning/afternoon hours. No wintry weather
  impacts are expected with this activity.

- Increasing confidence in a warming trend toward above normal
  temperatures early next week. Average highs for this time
  period range from 45 to 50 degrees. Mostly dry weather
  accompanies this pattern through at least Wednesday.

- Strong cold front moves through on Thursday night bringing low
  chances (10-15%) for wintry precipitation to occur with that
  front and this is mainly for areas east of Highway 65 and
  north of I-44.

- Highs for Friday and Saturday will be chilly in the 30s with
  lows in the single digits in some places with overnight wind
  chills in the single digits/below zero Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Low-level stratus is starting to build in as the front pushes
its way south. It`s currently situated over NE KS and northern
MO. We still have a few hours before the front is here and
starts to switch our winds out of the north. There is some
patchy fog out there, but due to the incoming front, winds have
stayed elevated enough to prevent dense fog from forming and
most visibilities have stayed above 1 mile. Low temperatures
have stayed in the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight and winds are
still out of the southwest, for now.

The rest of today will be mostly cloudy with gusty northerly
winds up to 25 mph especially along and west of I-49.
Temperatures are forecast to stay in the upper 30s today as the
cold air advection takes its time moving through the state. This
will end up working in our favor as far as frozen/liquid
precipitation is concerned. We do have a 15-20% chance of
drizzle for late this morning into early afternoon that will
linger behind the frontal passage. The RAP shows widespread
drizzle occurring across most of southern MO. Model guidance
has low-level moisture over 90%, there will be plenty of lift
from the passing front, and cloud ice will depart as the front
pushes southeast. We are not expecting any widespread freezing
drizzle at this time due to the temperatures staying above 32 F.
Though, if the CAA moves south earlier than anticipated or if
the drizzle lingers longer than expected into the evening hours,
then we could see the opportunity for freezing drizzle to form.
However, there is low confidence in those scenarios occurring
but the chance for it to happen is not 0%. We will continue to
monitor the timing of the front and assess how quickly
temperatures drop as well. No other wintry accumulations or
impacts are expected at this time. Tonight will mostly cloudy
and chilly with lows in the 20s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Monday-Wednesday: A surface high starts to build in to our
north to start the next week. Southerly flow returns on Monday
and high temperatures slowly warm back up for the middle of next
week. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s while Tuesday and
Wednesday could feature highs in the low to mid 50s. A shortwave
trough will pass just to our north on Tuesday and tighten the
pressure gradient bringing us gusty southwesterly winds up to 30
mph. No precipitation is expected with that front.

Thursday-Sunday: Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be
similar in the upper 40s to low 50s. Then, another cold front
moves through on Thursday night and that front will be much
stronger than the Tuesday front and will bring us a pretty
strong cold snap. There are low chances (10-15%) for wintry
precipitation to occur with that front and this is mainly for
areas east of Highway 65 and north of I-44. Right now, model
guidance has the St. Louis area seeing most of the action. Most
of the area will stay dry. Thursday night is when it turns
chilly again with lows in the teens and lower 20s. Highs for
Friday and Saturday will be a bit cooler in the 30s with partly
cloudy skies and lows in the single digits in some places with
overnight wind chills in the single digits/below zero Friday
into Saturday. Bundle up!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist through the period as a cold
front makes its way south. Winds are starting to turn northerly
across the area. Wind gusts could gust up to 20 knots by this
afternoon especially over southwest Missouri. Drizzle/patchy fog
will linger behind the front this morning but will dissipate by
the afternoon hours. Visibilities are expected to stay above 1
SM. Winds diminish by tonight but patchy fog returns again.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria