917
FXUS63 KSGF 121140
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms
  for areas west of Highway 63 Saturday and Saturday night.
  Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.
  Confidence in coverage is low.

- Warming trend this weekend into early next week as highs in
  the 90s return.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The Marginal Risk for severe weather has expanded a bit further
east today to include most locations west of Highway 63. Large
hail and damaging winds are still the main threats. Our risk
primarily comes from the activity that`s occurring over SE NE
early this morning. That shortwave will continue to push
southeast into our area and bring us a round of showers and
thunderstorms by late morning/early afternoon. The area within
the Marginal Risk has the better moisture today with dewpoints
in the mid 70s. MUCAPE will also be plentiful over SE KS/SW MO
with values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. The main question today
is the amount of lift this shortwave will have left by the time
it reaches our area. A cap will be in place as it pushes
through, which may limit how widespread the storms become later
today. Most of the CAMs have some sort of a bowing segment
forming, which would mean damaging wind gusts. Pulse
thunderstorms could form ahead of the main line, which would
bring our hail threat. Either way, we`ll welcome the rain
especially in that area where D3 drought is present.

Highs will be in the low to mid 90s today and it`ll feel warm
and humid again. Skies will be partly cloudy and winds will
remain light today. Expect most of the rain today to stick to
areas mainly west of Highway 63 and for accumulations to be
light < 0.50".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Rain could occur again overnight Saturday into Sunday as another
shortwave/MCS feature works its way east through southern KS.
Not every model has the wave making its way east, but if it can,
there is the possibility for thunderstorms in the same area as
earlier in the day. This wave has a bit more lift associated
with it and we have the chance for rain at 30-45%. SPC hasn`t
outlooked this area outside of a general thunder risk for Sunday.
This isn`t to say a Marginal risk wouldn`t be issued, we`ll
just have to monitor how the convection plays out today and
assess whether or not there are any leftover boundaries from
this morning`s convection, or if it stabilizes the atmosphere
and we get nothing overnight.

A stationary front hangs out over the northern part of our CWA
for most of the week and brings off and on rain chances for
central MO. Blame the high pressure system sitting over the
south for our area missing out on all the rain. Once that ridge
begins to move east later in the week, rain chances increase to
30-40% by the end of the week. Unfortunately, not a lot of
temperature changes or any signs of a cooldown coming this
week. We do start to creep into the 80s towards the end of the
work week, but it won`t exactly feel like fall quite yet.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR through the period with southeast to southwesterly winds
prevailing. Winds will remain light below 10 knots.
Thunderstorms are moving south from the KC Metro early this
morning and may impact JLN. There will be a break in the storms
with another round possible later tonight near 06z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria