797
FXUS63 KSGF 041711
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1111 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder today with morning wind chills in the single digits to
  middle teens, then highs reaching the upper 20s to middle 30s.
  There is also a 10-15% chance of flurries along the Missouri-
  Arkansas border

- 15-30% chance for precipitation Saturday night. Best chance
  for snow is toward central Missouri. Light amounts expected,
  with an 80-95% chance of <0.1 inches of rain, or <1 inch of
  snow.

- Confidence is increasing in a warming trend toward above
  normal temperatures into next week. Average highs for this
  time period range from 45 to 50 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Current water vapor imagery paired with RAP analysis depicts an
extensive positively tilted trough axis stretching from
southern California, up into the Great Lakes, and further north
into the Hudson Bay. Along downstream side of the trough axis is
a 120-150 kt jet stream stretching from New Mexico, through the
Ozarks, and up into Maine. Such an extensive and strong jet
stream is usually manifest by a strong baroclinic zone and sharp
temperature gradient. As such, it is of no surprise to note a
strong surface cold front stretching from west TX, through the
Ozarks, and into the Great Lakes region.


Drizzle (perhaps freezing) at times before 7 AM this morning:

As the cold front surged through the I-44 corridor, light
drizzle was reported at the Springfield Airport along with gusty
northerly winds and low stratus. This lasted for less than an
hour as the front moved through. The temperature at the time was
right at 32 F, so no freezing drizzle was reported, but as the
cold front drops south, some areas already below freezing could
see a brief period of freezing drizzle. This would include
counties such as Ozark, Howell, Oregon, and Shannon where
surface observations are in the upper 20s. The brief and light
nature of the drizzle observed, however, should keep any
accumulation and resulting impacts very minimal.


Morning wind chills ranging from the single digits to middle teens:

Behind the cold front, northerly 10-15 mph winds will usher in
colder air. Lows are expected to bottom out in the middle teens
(toward central MO), to the middle 20s (along the MO/AR border).
Along with the winds, this will produce single digit to middle
teens wind chills this morning. Cloud cover is expected to stay
overhead for much of the day, keeping highs colder in the middle
20s to middle 30s, colder temperatures toward central MO.


10-15% chance of flurries along the MO/AR border:

As the jet core slowly shifts eastward, a modest low pressure
system will follow the right entrance region of the jet and
traverse west to east along the Gulf states. The 700 mb front is
expected to be within the OK/AR region during this time, and is
expected to force some precipitation. The majority of models
keep any appreciable precipitation south of our area, but some
CAMs sneak some light snow along the border region, which could
drop a few flurries today (10-15% chance).


Near normal temperatures into the weekend:

The core of the jet stream will push southeast of the Ozarks
Friday, clearing skies and allowing southerly surface flow to
return. This will warm temperatures back up to near normal with
highs in the middle 40s to lower 50s, warmer along the MO/AR
border. Lows will also gradually warm from the lower to middle
20s Thursday night, to the upper 20s to middle 30s Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

15-30% chance of light precipitation Saturday night:

Ensembles are very confident in the mid- and upper-level
longwave pattern remaining stagnant for much of the forecast
period. This pattern consists of a deep and broad longwave
trough over the central and eastern CONUS, placing us in
northwesterly flow. The tricky part of this forecast is the
little wiggles that drop through the longwave pattern and their
placement within the background flow. Models have been
struggling the past 7 days to provide a consistent signal for
each system for our area because of this. It`s not necessarily
that models are not picking up on the signals for systems, it`s
more our position within the longwave pattern where each wiggle
could put us on the southern or northern side of a system.

With that intro out of the way, the next signal for a system
appears to be Saturday night into Sunday with the NBM putting
out a 15-30% chance for precipitation. Global deterministic
have this system as a clipper dropping through central Missouri.
Given the current temperature forecast, the best chance for
snow would be within our northern CWA near central MO.

Medium-range and long-range ensembles from the SREF and LREF
are pretty meager in the amounts of precipitation, which should
probably be expected from a clipper system. Both show a 20-30%
chance of at least 0.1 inches of snow in central MO, which drops
to 10-15% for at least half an inch. The same thing goes for
0.01" of rain across the rest of the area--it goes from 40-60%
for 0.01", to 5-20% for 0.1". Analyzing histograms of QPF output
show that this signal is a result of a good chunk of ensemble
members outputting light precipitation rather than a few models
outputting high precipitation amounts while many others stay
dry. For that reason, the forecast calls for a 15-30% chance of
light rain/snow Saturday night.


Increasing confidence in a warm-up to above normal temps next week:

Following the clipper system, a cold front will bring colder
temperatures Sunday in the lower 30s to lower 40s. After this,
NBM temperature spreads invoke decent confidence in a warm-up to
above normal temperatures as the next branch of the jet stream
diving from the Pacific NW is progged to hover north of the
area, allowing for warmer temperatures from the south to advect
into our area. Right now, the forecast calls for highs to be in
the middle 30s to middle 40s Monday, increasing to the lower to
middle 50s by Wednesday. Lows will also warm from the upper
teens to middle 20s Sunday night, to the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

High confidence in VFR conditions through most of the TAF
period. Mid to high level clouds gradually dissipate through the
late afternoon into the evening. Light northeast winds at 5 to
10 knots become variable this evening. Winds turn out of the
south-southwest into Friday morning, with occasional gusts up to
20 knots late in the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Perez