770
FXUS63 KSGF 141738
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1238 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will be possible tonight into Saturday morning with
  some dense fog possible.

- Thunderstorm chances today will mainly be confined to far
  western portions of the CWA (15-20%).

- On and off lower end chances(15-40%) for showers and
  thunderstorms this weekend into the middle of next week.

- Humid conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. If
  temperatures can reach the upper 80s to low 90s...we may see
  head index values in the mid 90s to around 100.

- 8 to 14 day temperature outlook continues to point to warmer
  than normal temperatures as an upper level ridge develops over
  the central U.S. by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Synoptic overview and current conditions:  Water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show an upper level wave exiting the CWA to
the east. Radar has a few showers still over the northeast
portion of the CWA closer to the upper circulation. IR Satellite
and regional radars show another MCS developing on the edge of
the upper ridge in the high plains. Will need to monitor the
progress of this convection overnight for the potential of
remnants making it into far western portions of the CWA during
the day today.

Rest of the overnight and today: with a clearing sky, light wind
and plenty of boundary level moisture in our western and
northern CWA, will need to monitor fog development overnight.
CAMS suggesting some pockets of dense fog, particularily
developing in central MO and spreading into our northern CWA.
Decided to go with a dense fog advisory until 9 am for part of
central Missouri. For now, we have fairly low pops with any MCS
remnants today(15-20%) in our west. This may need to be
adjusted upward if the convection can maintain itself and make
it this far to the east. Depending on how the MCS behaves, we
may see more sunshine today which would allow temperatures to
reach the low to mid 80s across the area.

Tonight/Sunday: Additional plains convection will be possible
tonight and then potentially spreading southeast into our CWA on
Sunday. It does appear to have a better potential for affecting
the western half of the CWA than today with around 20-40% pops.
Again, the amount of cloud cover/precipitation will have an
effect on temperatures. If there is less cloud
cover/precipitation temperatures should rise into the mid to
possibly upper 80s, but more clouds/precipitation will keep
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

We maintain around 20 to 40% pops through Monday as we will be
on the eastern edge of the ridge axis. A more substantial
shortwave in the westerlies looks like it will move into the
area towards midweek with 30-60% rain chances on Wednesday.

Low level moisture will be over the area with dew points
potentially in the mid 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. If we can
get temperatures to rise into the upper 80s to low 90s then our
heat index values may reach the mid 90s to around 100. There is
still a lot of uncertainty with cloud cover and precipitation
potentially keeping those highs down slightly.

By late in the week into next weekend we start to get upper
level ridging building into the central U.S. and we could see
temperatures getting into the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Radar imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms in
southeast Kansas diminishing as they slowly move eastward.
There`s a 15-30% chance that they last long enough to impact JLN
between 18-20Z.

Through most of the period, light variable winds, cu field at 4
kft, and an encroaching cirrus shield will prevail through 00Z.
After 00Z, some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
may develop along the outflow of old thunderstorms in the
vicinity of JLN (20-30% chance; a lower chance at SGF and BBG).
Then, after 06Z, a thunderstorm complex is expected to develop
somewhere in NE/KS/OK. Depending on where it tracks will
determine which TAF sites are impacted and for how long, but the
best timeframe will be after 12Z through the end of the period,
though there is still approximately a 30% chance of showers and
thunderstorms before 12Z.

If storms do not move in before 12Z, some level of fog and/or
low stratus is expected to develop at SGF and BBG. Given the
uncertainty, have not decreased visibilities below MVFR at this
time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Price