232
FXUS63 KSGF 171751
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO
1251 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced risk of severe storms (3 of 5) late this evening and
  overnight.

- Enhanced risk of severe storms (3 of 5) Wednesday afternoon
  and evening.

- Slight risk (2 of 4) for excessive rainfall Tuesday night for
  our western areas and marginal risk of excessive rainfall (1
  of 4) on Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

- Humid and very warm temperatures late in the week into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Satellite and regional radar show a thunderstorm complex over
southern Nebraska into northern Kansas. This was forming along a
surface frontal system that stretched from Minnesota into
northwest Kansas, ahead of an upper level shortwave and north of
a south-north low level jet streak over western/central KS. MU
CAPE axis of 2500-4000 j/kg was located over western Kansas
through western OK. Over our forecast area, we have finally
ended the shower activity over south central MO with the slow
moving MCV from the past few days. Temperatures were still in
the upper 60s to low 70s across the area with dew points from
the mid 60s to low 70s. We do have some light fog already
developing over parts of the eastern Ozarks and will need to
keep an eye on these visibilities as the night progresses.

Rest of tonight into Tuesday morning: CAMS continue to dive
that ongoing MCS southeast into eastern Kansas during the
remainder of the overnight with some dissipation as it moves
into our western CWA on Tuesday morning. Not expecting any
severe storms with any remnant activity. Remnant boundaries
could be a focus for storm regeneration during the day but the
main show and severe potential is not expected to arrive until
Tuesday night. Overnight fog should dissipate by mid morning.

Tuesday afternoon and night: Some decent instability develops
in the wake of the morning MCS, especially further west over KS.
By late afternoon/early evening, additional convection is
expected to develop over KS, eventually developing into a strong
MCS with all modes of severe weather possible. CAPE/SHEAR combo
looks most impressive to our west in the late afternoon and
early evening. As the MCS dives southeast into southeast Kansas
and western MO late in the evening and overnight hours, damaging
wind will become the main severe weather risk. HREF mean
precipitable water values get up into the 1.5 to 1.8 range as
the MCS begins to push into the area, so intense rainfall rates
will be possible which may lead to some flooding. (Mention ERO)

Wednesday: The morning MCS should dissipate with instability
redeveloping during the afternoon with SFC based CAPES of 2500
to 3500 j/kg. Upper shortwave and surface front will be the
focus for thunderstorm redevelopment during the afternoon and
continuing into the evening as the shortwave shifts east. Severe
storms will be possible with an enhanced risk for severe
weather (3 of 5).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Previously advertised upper ridge amplification over the
central U.S. late in the week into the weekend as an upper low
drops into the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. We will
keep the higher moisture over the area with dewpoints in the 70s
with temperatures warming into the upper 80s into the lower to
middle 90s we will likely see some heat index values from the
mid 90s to lower 100s by the end of the week into early next
week. Additionally lows will likely not drop below the 70s
during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions currently exist at the area terminals and any
convection of note is across central Kansas. Over the next
several hours, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will
develop and move into eastern Kansas and eventually southwest
Missouri. Exactly how far into southwest Missouri it gets still
remains to be seen, but expect convection at all terminals
overnight. KJLN has the best chance of seeing impacts, and as
such the prevailing TSRA was kept in the TAFs. Elsewhere,
PROB30s continue to be used until confidence increases on a
solution. Periods of MVFR stratus may follow the convection, but
conditions will improve through the late morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...MRB