587
FXUS63 KSGF 281005
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
505 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will occur across the area on
  Tuesday and Wednesday, as highs warm into the middle to upper
  80s for portions of the area.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms (50-90% chances) are expected
  midweek/late week and could linger into the weekend. There
  will be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall with
  this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A few scattered sprinkles will be possible across portions of
the area east of Highway 65 early this morning as upper level
energy moves south through the region. Most locations will
remain dry and just a trace of rainfall will occur at any of the
few locations affected by this activity early this morning.

Highs are once again expected to warm into the middle 70s to
the lower 80s this afternoon as clouds clear from west to east
this afternoon. Lows tonight into Tuesday morning will range
from the middle 50s across the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s
across extreme southeastern Kansas and far southwestern
Missouri.

An upper level ridge will start to move east into the region on
Tuesday as an upper level low digs south across the west coast.
A warmer airmass will start to advect from west to east across
the area on Tuesday with above normal temperatures expected with
highs warming into the 80s with middle to upper 80s expected for
portions of the area. No rainfall is expected across the area
on Tuesday as the upper level trough remains well southwest of
the area. The warmer air mass will remain in place across the
area into Wednesday. Lows will range from around 60 across
south central Missouri to near 70 across extreme southeastern
Kansas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The upper level low will continue to dig southeast across the
southwestern U.S. on Wednesday with a warmer airmass remaining
in place across the area. Above normal temperatures will again
occur on Wednesday as highs warm into the middle to upper 80s
and a few locations could approach the 90 degree mark. Gusty
south to southwesterly winds will accompany the warmer air mass
as gusts up to around 30 mph occurs at times on Wednesday.

The upper level low will remain well to the southwest of the
area on Wednesday resulting in much of the day remaining dry.
The long wave trough will remain west of the area with the
western portions of the area on the eastern edge of the trough.
Therefore, energy will lift more to the north from the low and
remain west of the area through much of the day on Wednesday.
Wednesday night into Thursday the trough will start to slowly
move to the east. Moisture advection will occur ahead of the
system and the slow movement will allow a longer return period.
The remnants of Hurricane Polo will also be absorbed into the
upper level low before moving into the region also increasing
moisture with the system.

Bands of showers, with some embedded thunderstorms will develop
ahead of the low and track to the north/northeast. As the
trough slowly moves east these bands could start to move into
the western portions of the area Wednesday evening, but more
likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The bands will
continue to develop and track to the north/northeast on Thursday
and spread east through the day. The upper level low will start
slowly move east therefore the bands may not reach the eastern
portions of the area until later in the day. The slow movement
of the trough will lead to the potential for training of these
bands as the keep develop and tracking over the same locations.
The increased moisture and the training potential will lead to
the risk for some heavy rainfall across portions of the the
area. The WPC has locations along and west of I-49 in a Slight
Risk for Excessive Rain for Wednesday night and a Slight Risk
for much of the area on Thursday/Thursday night as the system
slowly moves to the east.

Highs will only warm into the 70s on Thursday where the rain
moves into the area, but with the slow movement of the system
the rain may not move into the eastern portions of the area
until later in the day allowing highs to potentially warm into
the lower to middle 80s where the rain holds off until longer
into the day.

Another upper level trough will move east across the northern
Plains late week and will push a front to the south into the
area Friday/Friday night. The upper level low to the southwest
should start to move east through towards the area Friday, and
will likely open up into a trough as the long wave trough
become less amplified. The front and trough will result in
additional periods of rain occurring across the area on
Friday/Friday night. The ensemble model members differ on the
timing of the front as some move it south of the area Friday
night, with others moving the front south of the area on
Saturday, and a few members (therefore lower potential at time)
showing the front stalling over the area through much of the
weekend. Rain chances will occur across the area until the front
moves south of the area. The front will bring cooler conditions
to the area with highs in the upper 60s into the middle 70s
expected this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A few sprinkles will be possible across portions of the area
early this morning, but not all locations will be affected and
no impacts are expected for those that due see any of this
sprinkle activity. Any sprinkle potential should end by the mid
morning hours today.

VFR clouds will remain in place across the area this morning an
will start to clear from southwest to northeast this afternoon
with mostly clear skies expected by this evening.

Winds will generally be light out of the east to southeast
through much of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise