883
FXUS63 KSGF 310812
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
312 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Morning convection expected to diminish near late morning (10
  AM to 12 PM). No widespread severe weather expected with this
  first round.

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms
  east of Highway 65 from 4 to 11 PM today. Damaging wind gusts
  will be the primary risk, with a secondary risk for hail (half
  dollar size) and tornadoes.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures and windy conditions this
  weekend, especially Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to
  lower/middle 80s and gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Current weather:
Convection is currently bubbling over SE KS
and SW MO early this morning along a stationary front and ahead
of an incoming surface low. There have been a few isolated
lightning strikes, but no widespread severe weather in our area.
A bit further north in N KS, wind gusts near 60 mph have been
the primary threat. The convection over KS will continue to push
east as the surface front moves east as well. Widespread severe
weather isn`t expected with this first round of storms this
morning. Though, with dewpoints in the 70s and PWATs over 2"
this morning, any rain that does move through the area will
likely be heavy.

Heat:
Rain and clouds are expected to clear the area by late
morning and allow daytime heating to occur. Highs are forecast
to be warm in the low to mid 90s with heat index values up to
110 degrees west of I-49 and in the lower 100s east of I-49.
Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued from 12-8 PM for SE
KS and far SW MO (mainly areas along and west of I-49). There
may be areas just to the east of the advisory that hit the 105
degree threshold, but the confidence was much lower for those
areas to hit due to lingering cloud cover. So, the counties with
the highest confidence to hit heat advisory are in the
advisory.

Severe Weather:
A cold front is forecast to move through later this evening
bringing a chance for severe weather mainly east of Highway 65.
The timing is still expected to be 4-11 PM with the front moving
west to east across our area. SPC has moved the Slight risk
(2/5) for severe weather a tad bit to the east since yesterday`s
update. They have also expanded the slight risk further east,
but that doesn`t include our forecast area. The severe weather
forecast is mostly the same from the previous discussion in that
all hazards are possible including up half dollar size hail
(1.25"), up to 70 mph winds, and a couple of tornadoes. The
locations with the highest chance to see severe weather are
forecast to be east of Highway 65 where the better environment
will be.

CAMs have the storms starting over central MO and continuing to
initiate further south along the cold front as we go further in
time. Since our area is likely where the storms will initiate,
it`ll be tough to exactly nail down the start time. The atmosphere
will need time to recover from this morning`s convection and
the storms will have to overcome any stable/dry air that`s in
place. Though, when storms do start, they are forecast to start
out as discrete cells, then merge into a line as the front pushes
further east. Any discrete cells that form will give us the
possibility to see any of the hazards mentioned above. Once the
cells merge, wind will be the primary threat. The tornado threat
could be a bit concerning especially over the eastern Ozarks if
ingredients align. Just looking over the eastern Ozarks, there
are 0-1 km SRH values of ~200 m2s2, 0-6km bulk shear of 30-35
kts, and MLCAPE values ~2000 J/kg. But as previously mentioned
in the last discussion, there will be a cap that these storms
will have to break through to reach their full severe potential.
Also should mention the threat for nuisance flooding with these
storms as they could drop a good amount of rainfall in a short
amount of time. Be sure to remain weather aware this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Temperatures steadily decrease through weekend with highs in the
70s and 80s for Saturday and Sunday. This will be a welcome
break from the heat especially with low temperatures in the 60s.
Northwesterly winds will be breezy ahead of and after the
frontal passage. Saturday will be breezy with winds gusting near
30 mph through the day. Sunday will still feature breezy winds
near 20 mph out of the northeast. High pressure begins to build
in again on Sunday, but temperatures take their time warming as
we go into next week. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower
90s to start the week with mid to upper 90s returning by mid-
week. Mostly dry weather is expected as we start August.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A broken line of showers are moving east through western
Missouri to start the TAF period, with a secondary line of
showers setting up just west of the first line. These showers
are expected to remain largely thunder-free, with increasing
coverage that should be maximized around 12Z. After 12Z,
coverage starts to become more broken.

Southeasterly winds become southwesterly after 12Z, with gusts
up to 20kts expected after 15Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Camden