863
FXUS63 KSGF 051857
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
157 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Tuesday.

- 20-60% chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area
  Monday through Tuesday. 30-50% chance for greater than half an
  inch of rain in locations east of Highway 5.

- Slightly cooler temperatures behind a front mid-week with more
  normal temperatures. Confidence is increasing in persistent
  above normal temperatures returning late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Upper level analysis shows that the upper ridge has shifted
eastward from the mid Atlantic into New England. An upper level
shortwave was over the northern Rockies into the northern plains
and upper Mississippi valley with another ridge off the Pacific
coast. A surface front remains to our northwest from a low over
northwest MN through western Kansas. Dry atmospheric conditions
were persisting over the area with much of the area with PW
values below 1". Some higher moisture values are beginning to
nudge into our southeast CWA and we`re beginning to see some
cumulus develop there this afternoon.

Temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in
the mid to upper 50s.

For tonight, we`ll start to see some increased mid level cloud
cover, especially in the southeast 1/2 of the CWA. Temperatures
will be in the low to mid 60s for lows. The upper wave and
surface front will remain northwest of the area.

Monday: Moisture continues to increase over the area, especially
over the southeast 1/2 of the CWA. Some upper level energy and
afternoon/early evening instability will bring some scattered
convection to the area...mainly over the southeast 1/2 of the
CWA within the better moisture. The surface front to our
northwest will not move much as it remains nearly parallel to
the upper level flow. Another warm day is in store...especially
in the northwest outside of the main convection chances...where
temperatures will rise into the mid 80s. The southeast half of
the CWA will likely be slightly cooler in the upper 70s to low
80s.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Highest pops(20-60%) on Monday night will be during the evening
before the instability diminishes. Low pops are then expected
the remainder of the overnight into Tuesday(20-40%). The surface
front will finally begin to push south as the northern upper
trough begins to shift east. This will bring slightly cooler air
to the area(more normal for this time of year) for Wednesday.

There are still some challenges for late in the week. Ensemble
data continue to show the GEFS mean ridge axis much further
west than the ENS mean. If the GEFS is closer to reality then we
would have a better chance for some convection Thursday night
into Friday, however with the ENS ridge closer to the area it
would remain mostly dry. See no reason for changing the low
pops(25% or less) at this point from the NBM.

After a brief day of cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s
on Wednesday behind the front, we start to see an upward
temperature trend again...back to above normal by the end of the
week into next weekend.

The 8 to 14 day outlook brings a strong chance of above normal
temperatures and favors below normal precipitation. Ensemble
data is suggesting temperatures in a 6 to 12 degree above normal
range over the area.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

For the 18z TAFS, VFR conditions are expected through the
period. Some mid level cloud cover will move into the area late
tonight, however convection expected to be after this set of
TAFS expire. Will see some wind gusts up to 25 kts at SGF/JLN
this afternoon out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg