129
FXUS63 KSGF 092307
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
507 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler but still above-average temperatures likely through
  the end of the week.

- Rain chances return late this week. The best chances for
  widespread rain will be Friday night into Saturday.

- Probabilities favor above-average temperatures and above-
  average precipitation into mid-February.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Synoptic Overview:

An upper-level shortwave passed through the region this morning,
leaving the Missouri Ozarks under a quasi-zonal/broad ridging
pattern aloft. At the surface, a warm front continues to lift
through Missouri as southerly winds fuel substantial warm air
advection.

Near Daily Record Warmth Today:

Temperatures continue to track near some daily record highs
today. Whether individual records are broken or not, these
temperatures are anomalously warm--around 25 degrees above
average. See the Climate section below for specific details.

Cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday:

A cold front will move southeast through the area Tuesday
morning, though the relative coldest air looks to lag behind
the surface front and arrive with the 850 mb front. This delay
will allow temperatures to still warm well above average Tuesday
afternoon. Moisture will remain limited across the Ozarks on
Tuesday, and the passage of the cold front will largely remain
dry. However, a few CAMs do want to develop some very light
showers or sprinkles across extreme south-central Missouri
Tuesday night as the strong lift encounters better moisture,
though confidence in any precipitation being realized in our
forecast area is low.

Temperatures will be cooler still on Wednesday though still
above average. Look for highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees
areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Rain Chances Late this Week into the Weekend:

Global models show a weak mid- level shortwave transiting the
ridge Thursday into Friday. Jet dynamics will support modest
lift, and moisture return may intrude far enough north to
produce some scattered showers across central Missouri on
Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, grand ensemble clusters generally agree in
digging a more prominent shortwave across the Pacific southwest
late this week, with some members even closing off a low. As the
wave approaches, southerly flow will increase moisture return
across the Ozarks. Where ensembles disagree, however, is in the
exact positioning of this system. The farther north solutions
would place more of our area under the left exit region of the
upper-level jet, therefore increasing lift and likely supporting
more widespread rain. Conversely, a more southerly solution
would keep the better moisture and lift south of our area. The
ECMWF members tend to favor the more northerly solution, and
indeed, the Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails products
depict an increased signal for QPF Friday into Saturday. With
the more appreciable instability kept well south of the area,
any severe risk looks limited. For what it`s worth, all of the
machine learning guidance keep the better severe probabilities
across the southern Plains and Gulf states. Still a long ways to
go until then, however, so we will simply have to monitor
trends in the data to increase forecast confidence going
forward. As of now, the highest precipitation chances are Friday
night into Saturday.

Above-average to Near-average Temperatures Late Week:

The cooler temperatures (compared to earlier in the week) will
continue through late week, though still look to largely remain
above average with daily highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees.
It is possible some locations struggle to get out of the 40s on
Friday and Saturday if cloud cover and rain are more prevalent,
though these numbers are closer to the NBM 10th percentile.

Looking ahead, ensembles point toward another warmup next week
with the return of much above-average temperatures. The CPC 8 to
14 day outlook depicts 60 to 70% chances for above-average
temperatures in the Feb 16th-22nd period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through tonight ahead of an
approaching frontal passage on Tuesday. Scattered mid to high
level clouds increase in coverage overnight. Southerly winds
around 10 knots overnight, with southwest LLWS around 35 to 40
knots. Winds turn out of west to northwest behind frontal
passage, with occasional wind gusts on Tuesday afternoon around
20 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Record High Temperatures:

February 9:
KSGF: 76/1932
KJLN: 73/2000
KVIH: 69/2000
KUNO: 73/1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Lindenberg