412
FXUS63 KSGF 191831
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
131 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
  through the evening. Primary hazards are localized heavy
  rainfall and lightning. Additional low chances on Monday.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for Monday and Tuesday, with heat
  index values between 100 to 110 degrees. The hottest day
  occurs on Tuesday.

- Seasonable temperatures mid to late week, with rain chances
  (20-40%) returning late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

This Afternoon-Tonight:
An upper-level ridge is positioned over the Plains, with a
trough dipping into the Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS.
Surface high pressure is situated north of the area, and will
push a frontal boundary towards the Ozarks this afternoon and
evening. This frontal boundary is the focus for scattered
showers and thunderstorms today, with primary hazards being
localized heavy rainfall and lightning. The environment this
afternoon is characterized by ample moisture (PWATs 1.8 to 2.0
inches) in the vicinity of an unstable airmass (MUCAPE 2500-3000
J/kg). Meanwhile, another hot and humid day across the Ozarks
with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and heat
index values in the upper 90s to near 105. Moisture convergence
intensifies through the afternoon, with the greatest coverage
across central and south central MO through the evening. Areas
that do see thunderstorms may see localized heavy rainfall with
rainfall rates approaching 1 to 3 inches per a hour. The highly
localized amounts are captured by the latest HREF/RRFS
guidance. On the other hand, some areas may remain completely
dry through this evening. Scattered activity diminishes through
the evening, with lows falling into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Monday-Tuesday:
Hot and humid conditions to begin the week, with increasing mid-
level heights as the ridge to our west builds into the region.
While some mixing will occur on Monday, we are not expecting
dewpoints to fall out of the lower 70s. As a result, confidence
remains relatively high in humid conditions persisting and
supporting a Heat Advisory for both Monday and Tuesday. The
greatest confidence in exceeding advisory criteria across the
entire area is on Tuesday. For Monday, expect highs in the
lower to middle 90s, and heat index values around 100 to 105+
areawide. A bit warmer into Tuesday, with highs in the middle to
upper 90s to around 100 (southeast KS and far southwest MO).
This will further amplify heat index values around 100 to 110.
Diurnally driven isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-20%
chances) may occur both days, mainly across south central MO. In
general, most of the area remains dry on Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday-Next Weekend:
Seasonable temperatures behind the frontal passage on Wednesday
into Thursday, with highs ranging from lower/middle 80s (east)
to upper 80s/lower 90s (west). This temperature range will
ultimately be determined by the position of ridge to our west
and trough to our east, with NBM interquartile spreads remaining
around 8 to 10 degrees for forecasted highs. Nonetheless, it
looks to be drier through mid-week.

Ensemble guidance depicts the ridge flattening into late
Thursday and Friday, with shortwave energy translating through
the flow. This supports the return of rain chances (20-40%),
though lingering uncertainty remains on the exact placement and
timing of mesoscale features. Guidance diverges into next
weekend, with larger temperature spreads and differences on
potential rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A cumulus field is overspreading the area this afternoon with a
frontal boundary stalling into east-central MO. West-southwest
winds at 5 to 10 knots through this afternoon and evening.
Meanwhile, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms develop
across the area this afternoon into the early evening, though
confidence remains relatively low on the extent of coverage.
For this reason, we have captured the potential with PROB30
groups. Reduced ceilings and visibilities would accompany any
activity, with brief heavy downpours and lightning. Clouds
gradually scatter into late evening, with winds becoming light
and variable.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-
     097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez