138
FXUS66 KSGX 042100
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
100 PM PST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weaker Santa Ana winds will continue across the mountains and
foothills through Friday, while quiet weather persists through
most areas through the weekend. High pressure over the Pacific
will move closer to the State by next week, leading to a warm up
across our region with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal with
continued dry weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A strong 594 mb high over the Pacific and a departing trough over
the Southern Plains, have contributed to weak offshore flow
across the region. Winds in the mountains and coastal facing
foothills will continue to weaken throughout the day. Weaker
offshore flow will remain by Friday over the area with similar
weather to that of today with highs in the 60s/70s for most with
50s closer to Big Bear Lake, Mt. San Jacinto, and Mt. Laguna.

High pressure off the coast will continue to push south and east,
expanding over Southern California by this weekend into next week.
Heights start to rise by Sunday, initiating the start of a warming
trend across the region. NBM shows highs well into the 70s for
valleys west of the mountains into the lower deserts. The marine
layer will remain shallow into early next week. Chance for fog
near the coast is low, but not nonzero with low confidence by
Sunday and Monday mornings.

Model agreement is high as we venture into the first half of next
week, which shows the area of high pressure moving over our
region. This will lead to weak offshore flow and warm
temperatures. Depending on how strong our offshore flow gradient
becomes and the strenght of the high will determine the specifics
of the temperature forecast. NBM shows highs approaching 85
degrees in the western valleys by Tuesday and Wednesday of next
week, around 15 degrees above normal for the middle of December.
Forecast confidence for this time period is moderate to high, with
subtle changes expected for the exact highs expected. Confidence
begins to lower on how long the area of high pressure stays over
the area by the latter half of next week. Whatever the outcome,
warm and dry weather will prevail for at least the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
042100Z....Mostly clear skies through the period. Local northeast
winds gusting 20-25 kts in mountain passes and coastal foothills
through this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected today through Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Though surf diminishes today and Friday, very high tides will occur
Friday morning, threatening coastal flooding, minor tidal overflow
and beach erosion. Check the Coastal Hazard Message for details.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday morning for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...CSP