Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
049 FXUS66 KSGX 282005 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 105 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical remnants from the south continue to stream over the area with cloudy skies and light showers across southern and eastern portions of the region. Drier, sunnier and less humid weather will occur by Friday into the weekend with minimal chances for storms across the mountains. Monsoonal moisture will increase again by early next week, with notable chances for storms to return to the mountains and deserts by Tuesday into the middle of next week. Other areas will see slightly warmer conditions with highs up to 5 degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... A thick shield of clouds is seen on satellite imagery as a remnant tropical low sits quite stationary west of Baja California. This system has brought light showers to the region, cloudy skies, and another humid day across the region. Most places across the San Diego metro have received under one tenth of an inch of rainfall so far, with some spots closer to one half inch east of that area in the mountains. The main part of the moisture plume is still moving northward but starting to turn to the northeast at this hour. This gives higher confidence in very little if any rain expected to fall in parts of Orange County, the northern half of Inland Empire and the high desert. The clouds from this system will begin to partially clear for areas west of the mountains as early as later this afternoon. Another beautiful sunset from these high clouds may occur portions of the area again this evening, so be on the lookout! A warmer and slightly less humid weather will occur on Friday with mostly sunny skies. There will be drying, but a weak amount of monsoonal moisture will be available to warrant a slight chance for a shower or weak thunderstorm to form over the mountains. The atmosphere continues to dry out over the weekend with PWAT values lowering under one inch across the lower deserts by the weekend. This will diminish any notable chances for storm activity by the weekend with all other areas seeing mostly sunny skies. A warming trend will also occur for areas away from the coast during this time. Highs will be near to slightly above average by Sunday. Monsoonal moisture will increase again by Labor Day into the middle of next week, which will lead to a greater chance of shower and thunderstorms across the mountains and deserts. By Tuesday through Thursday, chances will be around 20-30% across these areas. A weak trough offshore may start to form sometime in the middle of next week, which would lower the chances for any storms to occur. Other areas will remain quiet with near to slightly above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... 281950Z...Widespread clouds at or above 10000 feet MSL through this evening, decreasing early Friday. A few patches of coastal low clouds VCNTY coastal TAF sites with bases around 1000 feet MSL. Periods of CIG impacts are possible with probabilities <40 percent through 08Z Friday. Chances of -RA, peaking this afternoon, and decreasing this evening. -TSRA is unlikely but the possibility cannot be eliminated, with gusty winds near any storms that may form. High Clouds will thin and scatter Friday morning. && .MARINE... For today, thunderstorms are unlikely but the possibility cannot be eliminated. Any thunderstorms that form could produce gusty, erratic winds leading to locally rough seas. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...PG