


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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773 FXUS64 KSHV 181217 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 717 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - Strong to severe thunderstorms will move through the Ark-La-Tx Saturday afternoon and evening, clearing out by Sunday morning. - Seasonal temperatures will make themselves known on Sunday afternoon. - Subsequent weak cold fronts will mess with temperatures a bit through the work week, but highs look to stay just above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 There is still uncertainty on how this week`s weather headline will play out tomorrow. The current thinking is that the driving upper-level trough will move into the Southern Great Plains midday on Saturday. The associated frontal boundary will make its way eastward through the Ark-La-Tx during the evening and overnight hours. Where uncertainty still remains is in the timing and storm mode of this line. Most models are concluding that impacts for our CWA will begin around mid afternoon and last until around midnight. One deviation from this timeline is the NAMNST with a slower arrival time and overall propagation speed, so exact timing could vary slightly. There is also some uncertainty regarding storm mode. Damaging winds seem to be the most likely hazard with this line but some CAM solutions have discreet cells preceding the line. This scenario could result in higher damaging hail and tornado threats in addition to the high winds from the line. In addition, models are also suggesting that morning convection in the region could be at play, which would limit later destabilization and impact overall storm severity. It`s also worth mentioning that this line of storms will carry a heavy rain threat as well. Probabilistic guidance has increased confidence that more of the region could see rainfall accumulations up to and exceeding 1" by midday Sunday. Urban and low-lying areas could see a risk of flash flooding from this rain, especially in heavy downpours. Temperatures following the front`s exit early Sunday morning will be beautifully average for this time of year, with much of the region seeing highs in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures this low unfortunately look to be limited to Sunday as southerly flow kicks off another weak warming trend for the beginning of next week. Long range model guidance is hinting at a few weak cold fronts that will move through the region and help keep temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s. One of these fronts that is expected Tuesday has been increasingly accompanied by some scattered rainfall compared to previous runs. While it may not be enough to stave off drought, it should help keep temperatures relatively under control through the long term period. /57/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 For the 18/12Z TAF period, major changes are expected over the course of the next 24 hours. This will include the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms in association with a deep trough and a cold front advancing into the region during the latter half of the TAF period. Ahead of this convection, look for cigs to lower into the MVFR range at most terminals with brief IFR/LIFR cigs possible in East Texas through mid to late morning. These lower cigs will gradually lift back toward low VFR status just prior to convection arriving during the early afternoon across our NW terminals (KTYR, KGGG, KTXK) and shortly thereafter at KSHV, KLFK, KELD, and KMLU by mid to late afternoon. Increasing S/SW winds between 10-15 kts are expected in advance of the cold front with higher gusts upwards of 20-25 kts, potentially much higher invof of strong to severe convection by this afternoon and into this evening. Convection should begin to exit NW sites by around 19/00Z, but will linger farther south and east through 19/06Z before diminishing with fropa through the end of the TAF period. /19/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon through this evening with strong to severe thunderstorms expected ahead of a cold front, potentially marking our first widespread severe weather threat of this fall season. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 88 60 74 51 / 70 70 0 0 MLU 90 61 74 46 / 50 90 0 0 DEQ 82 49 70 42 / 90 40 0 0 TXK 86 54 73 48 / 80 60 0 0 ELD 86 54 71 44 / 70 90 0 0 TYR 84 56 73 50 / 80 40 0 0 GGG 87 56 73 48 / 80 60 0 0 LFK 88 59 77 48 / 80 60 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...19