317
FXUS64 KSHV 170442
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1142 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

 - Widespread triple-digit high temperatures will continue through
   midweek, maintaining an elevated risk for heat-related
   illnesses.

 - Increasingly dry soils and parched vegetation resulting from
   flash drought will support the threat of quick fire starts and
   rapid fire spreads.

 - Although rain will be hard to come by, a few opportunities will
   exist on Monday across SE Oklahoma and SW Arkansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Upper-level heat ridge to remain centered across the ArkLaTex on
Monday allowing for high temperatures to again climb to around 100
degrees across most locations, with portions of east and northeast
Texas up to 103 degrees. As has been the case over the past few
days, a pocket of drier air across east and northeast Texas could
mix down during the afternoon bringing dewpoint values down into
the 60s, limiting heat index values to near 105 degrees across
these areas. However, the remainder of the ArkLaTex may not be so
lucky as dewpoint values in the 70s will drive heat index values
to 105 to 110 degrees, especially across northeast Louisiana and
south-central Arkansas. Based on these numbers, the ongoing Heat
Advisory will remain unchanged at this time.

A weak frontal boundary acrsos Oklahoma into Arkansas will shift
south overnight. With the front being oriented across the I-30
corridor on Monday, could see a few storms developing across these
areas during the time of peak heating.

Upper-ridge to build west on Tuesday signaling the beginning of a
pattern shift that will become a little more evident from
Wednesday onward. By Thursday, most of north Louisiana and
Arkansas will struggle to reach 100 degrees, which has not been
the case through this weekend and most likely into the middle of
the upcoming workweek. Additionally, an upper- level trough
swinging southeast along the northern periphery of the ridge could
produce enough instability and mixing to restrict afternoon high
temperatures across Arkansas and Louisiana to the mid 90s by
Saturday. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

For the 17/00z TAF update...VFR conditions will continue to
prevail throughout this TAF period. Satellite imagery is not
showing much in the way of cloud cover, however, I maintained
FEW100 through 07/06z before I bring back SKC for all terminals.
Winds are expected to remain light throughout this TAF period,
generally under 10 kts throughout. /33/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A combination of dry fuels, low afternoon relative humidity in the
25-40 percent range, and S to SW winds sustained near 10 mph with
some higher gusts in the afternoon hours will maintain an elevated
wildfire threat across all of our fire districts. These conditions
will persist through early this evening with conditions beginning
to slowly improve after sunset with RH values recovering and wind
speeds gradually diminishing.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but spotters are
encouraged to report any wildfire activity to your local officials
and fire department personnel.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 102  81 103 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  79 101  80 103 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  74 103  73 104 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  77 100  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  76 103  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  76 103  78 104 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  74 101  76 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...33