


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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589 FXUS64 KSHV 161901 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Southeast winds today will see our lows warming in the coming days as highs maintain above average readings into Saturday. - Slight Risk for Severe thunderstorms will be able utilize daytime heating on Saturday ahead of the early Sunday arrival. - Quick cool down for a day or two with reinforcements of even cooler air late Tuesday lasting through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure on the surface and aloft have moved eastward opening up the Gulf of America to our region with southeast winds with needed humidity for some widespread convection on Saturday ahead of our next cold front. This has been the missing piece needed with our expanding drought conditions of late. The WPC QPF outlook is for a half inch to inch or more, especially east of I-49. This is also the area being highlighted in their Day 3 ERO with a Marginal Risk down to I-20 for some minor flooding as storms will be redeveloping in the daytime heating, well ahead of the cold front. After several more hours of southerly winds, our dew points will be upper 60s and lower 70s by Saturday as a strong mid level short wave moves across Oklahoma and Arkansas. On the surface our SE winds will be shifting to SW for another warm day, Then a shift to NW after sunset across I-30 and down across I-20 from midnight to dawn will drive out the moisture and clouds. This system approaching will be sufficient for a damaging wind threat as the more or less discrete activity develops into a potential squall line by late day and continues into the evening. The SPC continues a Slight Risk outlook for Saturday and night for most of our Four-State area. The Day 3 Slight Risk line has been drawn down over eastern OK into NE TX from Paris to near Mineola, and then from Longview to Carthage and eastward from Mansfield and Coushatta, to Columbia and Rayville LA, and including all of Arkansas. Their day 3 outlook also includes a Marginal Risk for all areas of deep east TX and central LA, so we all need be weather ready. Damaging winds will be possible with scattered storms using heating in the mid to upper 80s and perhaps with a little more vigor as the convection becomes more linear on the prefrontal trough. In addition the risk includes large hail and an isolated tornado potential in this environment. So keep abreast of the weather throughout the day on Saturday and into the evening over Arkansas and Louisiana. The cooler air will arrive on the NW winds overnight as a 1024mb high drops off the front range and down across N TX and OK in the wake of the short wave. This air mass will translate east across Arkansas on Sunday for a super nice day with sunshine and low RH again. High temperatures will be normal if only for a day, while our lows will be cooler for Monday as skies remain clear and winds are near calm or light SE. Expect a range of upper 40s north to low to mid 50s everywhere else. However, that SE wind picks up on Monday with warmer afternoon readings ranging in the low to mid 80s ahead of a secondary cold front arriving in the back door late Tuesday. Coverage is far less with GFS developing showers along I-20 before sunset. There is even a third push with more light rain potential by Thursday as the Westerlies finally remain in gear. These second and third air masses will be driving NE winds into the region, so rain amounts will remain on the light side for both minor events during the work week. Overall, our rainfall totals will only add a tenth or two more to the weekly totals from what occurs this Saturday. /24/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 For 16/18Z TAF period, VFR vis/cigs are expected through most of the period with MVFR exceptions for LFK by 17/12-15Z as light southerly surface winds begin to return across the airspace. /16/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 66 90 69 89 / 0 0 0 30 MLU 62 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 30 DEQ 62 86 65 84 / 10 0 10 50 TXK 65 89 68 88 / 0 0 0 40 ELD 61 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 40 TYR 64 87 68 89 / 0 10 0 30 GGG 62 88 66 89 / 0 10 0 40 LFK 64 89 67 90 / 0 10 0 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...16