678
FXUS64 KSHV 241848 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1248 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

 - Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening
   mainly along and south of the I-20 corridor of East Texas and
   North Louisiana. A localized flood threat will persist as well
   for this area as well as extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast
   Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas.

 - Cooler and drier conditions will return to the region late
   tonight through Tuesday, with a stronger reinforcement of
   colder/drier air spilling southeast Tuesday night/Wednesday
   morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Busy morning as organized convection has spread farther E than
what the short term progs have indicated this morning, which may
work in our favor and inhibit as much of a northward shift of the
warm front into the region this afternoon. The leading edge of the
convection has weakened considerably over SCntrl AR and extreme NW
LA, but has reinforced the cooler air along and just S of the
I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA. However, am currently watching the
deepening convection development ongoing over SE TX WNW of HOU
near and S of a warm front, which extends from just N of ATT, to
just N of UTS, to JAS and along the Lower Sabine Valley of SW LA.
The short term progs remain in general agreement with additional
PVA spreading NE ahead of the primary upper trough currently
tracking through W TX, which should help maintain the cooler air
in VC of I-20 even as the warm front continues to lift N through
the afternoon/early evening. Thus, the greater instability axis
will spread N into Lower E TX/N LA S of the front, with more than
adequate bulk shear of 50-60 kts enhancing the development of
deeper, more organized and potentially severe convection by mid
and late afternoon once large scale forcing increases ahead of the
approaching trough. In fact, some backing of the low level winds
should help to increase low level shear as weak low pressure waves
try to develop along the warm front, which would enhance the
potential for isolated tornadic development. After coordination
with SPC, have issued a Tornado Watch in effect until 01Z this
evening for Lower E TX and far Wrn LA.

Have had to make some considerable adjustments to max temps this
afternoon especially for areas N of the warm front, mainly to
lower them as much as some 5-8+ degrees. Have also increased pops
a bit based on the current obs, with categorical/likely pops
continuing for much of the region this evening before the trough
allows for a sfc dry line to mix E into the area late this evening
through the overnight hours. But before the dry line arrival, cell
training in VC of the warm front may result in a narrow band of
higher QPF of 2-4+ inches from portions of extreme Ern TX into NW
LA/possibly far Srn AR, which may result in a localized flood
threat over these area through this evening. Will allow the
current Flood Watch to ride as is for areas along/N of the I-30
corridor, as sfc gauges from Red River County TX into McCurtain
County OK and Sevier/Howard Counties in SW AR have recorded 1-2+
inch totals, with additional rainfall expected over nearly
saturated grounds from previous rainfall late last week.

The short term progs continue to suggest that the trough axis will
exit the region to the ENE shortly after 06Z, thus quickly
diminishing the convection from W to E with its departure. While
the progs also hint at some wrap-around stratocu spilling S in
wake of this trough Tuesday, enough clearing may exist late
tonight through mid-morning for patchy FG development. Above
normal temps will return to much of the region Tuesday, before a
second but stronger cold front shifts SE through the area late
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, returning more seasonal
conditions back in time for the Thanksgiving holiday. Depending on
the extent of cirrus rounding the base of the attendant longwave
trough Wednesday night as sfc ridging continues to build into the
region, freezing temps are possible Thursday morning across SE
OK/SW AR before spreading farther SE into the Lower MS Valley
Thursday night.

The dry NW flow aloft in wake of the longwave trough passage will
begin to flatten by the start of the holiday weekend with the
approach of additional shortwave energy entering the region, with
rapidly returning low level moisture along a SSWrly LLJ
contributing to an increase in convection development Saturday,
becoming further enhanced by Sunday as additional energy develops
in the SW flow aloft and overspreads the area. Attm, instability
return looks meager for the weekend systems, but additional much
needed rainfall is expected to provide some relief to the ongoing
drought conditions.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

For the 24/18z TAF period. A busy TAF period expected as showers
and thunderstorms will move across the airspace ahead of an
approaching front. Reduced flight conditions will occur at all
sites during the period due to showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms could be severe, especially at sites along and south of
I-20. Behind the convection, FG/BR will likely form, reducing
vsbys until the front finally moves through early Tuesday morning.
Winds will shift to the WNW in wake of the front. Some areas may
see SKC for a few hours behind the front, but models suggest some
wrap around low clouds will move into the airspace by the end of
the period. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1247 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening over
portions of East texas and North Louisiana along and south of the
I-20 corridor. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  59  75  48 /  90 100   0   0
MLU  69  63  75  50 /  70 100  10   0
DEQ  58  50  66  38 / 100  40   0   0
TXK  60  54  68  43 / 100  70   0   0
ELD  60  55  69  43 /  90 100   0   0
TYR  67  54  70  44 / 100  60   0   0
GGG  67  54  71  44 /  90  90   0   0
LFK  77  58  76  48 /  80 100   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071.

LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...20