589
FXUS64 KSHV 161901
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
201 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - Southeast winds today will see our lows warming in the coming
   days as highs maintain above average readings into Saturday.

 - Slight Risk for Severe thunderstorms will be able utilize
   daytime heating on Saturday ahead of the early Sunday arrival.

 - Quick cool down for a day or two with reinforcements of even
   cooler air late Tuesday lasting through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

High pressure on the surface and aloft have moved eastward opening
up the Gulf of America to our region with southeast winds with
needed humidity for some widespread convection on Saturday ahead
of our next cold front. This has been the missing piece needed with
our expanding drought conditions of late. The WPC QPF outlook is
for a half inch to inch or more, especially east of I-49. This is
also the area being highlighted in their Day 3 ERO with a
Marginal Risk down to I-20 for some minor flooding as storms will
be redeveloping in the daytime heating, well ahead of the cold
front.

After several more hours of southerly winds, our dew points will
be upper 60s and lower 70s by Saturday as a strong mid level
short wave moves across Oklahoma and Arkansas. On the surface our
SE winds will be shifting to SW for another warm day, Then a shift
to NW after sunset across I-30 and down across I-20 from midnight
to dawn will drive out the moisture and clouds. This system
approaching will be sufficient for a damaging wind threat as the
more or less discrete activity develops into a potential squall
line by late day and continues into the evening.

The SPC continues a Slight Risk outlook for Saturday and night
for most of our Four-State area. The Day 3 Slight Risk line has
been drawn down over eastern OK into NE TX from Paris to near
Mineola, and then from Longview to Carthage and eastward from
Mansfield and Coushatta, to Columbia and Rayville LA, and
including all of Arkansas. Their day 3 outlook also includes a
Marginal Risk for all areas of deep east TX and central LA, so we
all need be weather ready. Damaging winds will be possible with
scattered storms using heating in the mid to upper 80s and
perhaps with a little more vigor as the convection becomes more
linear on the prefrontal trough.

In addition the risk includes large hail and an isolated tornado
potential in this environment. So keep abreast of the weather
throughout the day on Saturday and into the evening over Arkansas
and Louisiana. The cooler air will arrive on the NW winds
overnight as a 1024mb high drops off the front range and down
across N TX and OK in the wake of the short wave. This air mass
will translate east across Arkansas on Sunday for a super nice day
with sunshine and low RH again. High temperatures will be normal
if only for a day, while our lows will be cooler for Monday as
skies remain clear and winds are near calm or light SE. Expect a
range of upper 40s north to low to mid 50s everywhere else.

However, that SE wind picks up on Monday with warmer afternoon
readings ranging in the low to mid 80s ahead of a secondary cold
front arriving in the back door late Tuesday. Coverage is far less
with GFS developing showers along I-20 before sunset. There is
even a third push with more light rain potential by Thursday as
the Westerlies finally remain in gear. These second and third air
masses will be driving NE winds into the region, so rain amounts
will remain on the light side for both minor events during the
work week. Overall, our rainfall totals will only add a tenth or
two more to the weekly totals from what occurs this Saturday. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For 16/18Z TAF period, VFR vis/cigs are expected through most of the
period with MVFR exceptions for LFK by 17/12-15Z as light southerly
surface winds begin to return across the airspace. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  90  69  89 /   0   0   0  30
MLU  62  91  65  90 /   0   0   0  30
DEQ  62  86  65  84 /  10   0  10  50
TXK  65  89  68  88 /   0   0   0  40
ELD  61  88  64  87 /   0   0   0  40
TYR  64  87  68  89 /   0  10   0  30
GGG  62  88  66  89 /   0  10   0  40
LFK  64  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16