168
FXUS64 KSHV 060427
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1027 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 955 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

 - Damp and dreary conditions will stick around until sunshine
   returns on Sunday.

 - A warming trend will bring temperatures back into the mid and
   upper 60s by the middle of next week.

 - The next earliest opportunity for cool temperatures and rain
   may come late next week or early next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 955 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

The final areas of light rain or drizzle in our far southeastern
zones should end this evening as the forecast period begins,
leaving the region chilly and dry through the overnight hours. The
recent rainfall and already moist air mass present will create a
risk for fog early tomorrow morning, especially for the western
half of the CWA. As of now, the fog is expected to remain patchy.
However, the evening forecast package may update the fog coverage
or intensity depending on future model runs. The region will
remain cloudy until a drier airmass moves in from the northwest on
Sunday.

A wintertime northwest flow pattern will help keep conditions dry
and clear for next week. Afternoon high temperatures will be near
average for the first part of the week-- mostly in the upper 50s
to low 60s. The combination of clear skies, subsidence, and a
southerly wind shift will begin a warming trend midweek and bring
unseasonably warm temperatures back to the area. Much of the
region could see temperatures in the mid to upper 60s by Wednesday
or Thursday. Long range models are beginning to hint at a low to
mid-level boundary moving through the Four State Region during the
day on Friday, which will likely be the earliest that we could see
cooler air and rain chances return.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Latest 00z time height/cross sections along with latest HRRR
output is suggesting the fog development overnight may not be
quite as extreme as earlier runs had predicted. Given that and the
fact that we have a descent mid level cloud deck between 7-10kft
across our airspace attm, have removed much of the IFR VSBYS and
instead, replaced with MVFR VSBYS with a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings
after midnight through the early to mid morning hours before VFR
conditions return. Not completely confident all terminal sites
will see VSBY restrictions but it does appear that we should lose
the mid level cloud cover closer to sunrise with high clouds
continuing which may be just enough to keep fog development at
bay.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail areawide from mid to late
morning and through the afternoon into the evening hours on Sat.
Look for patchy fog development once again overnight Sat Night
just beyond this 24 hr terminal package.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 553 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  39  61  50  64 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  38  58  45  62 /  10   0   0  20
DEQ  31  54  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  35  58  44  61 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  31  56  42  58 /  10   0   0  10
TYR  39  63  47  62 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  37  63  47  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  40  66  50  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13