092
FXUS64 KSHV 272337
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
637 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

 - Fairly normal summertime temperatures will prevail through the
   forecast period, but heat advisory headlines could return for
   some areas late in the weekend.

 - Daily diurnal rain chances remain, but any rain amounts should
   be light through the next week.

 - The potential for some Saharan dust arriving across the Gulf
   coast appears increasingly likely for next week as it often the
   case this time of year as the Atlantic easterlies increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

We have settled into a rather typical summer regime for late June,
and this pattern of near/slightly above average temperatures and
daily diurnal convection is expected to largely persist through
the next seven days given the lack of any real frontal intrusions.

With that said, a weak cool front will approach our northern zones
by the early to middle part of next week but it is not expected to
make much if any progress into our region. Therefore, the mostly
rinse and repeat nature of the forecast will generally carry the
day through this weekend as somewhat fractured upper-level ridging
will allow for an uptick in rain chances mainly in southern zones
for the latter half of the weekend on Sunday. This will be largely
driven by the inland sea breeze push from the coast as the day
progresses through the hours of peak heating on Sunday afternoon
and early evening. In the meantime, rain chances will remain more
limited with high temperatures each day ranging from the lower to
mid 90s. Peak heat index values will continue to approach but
likely remain just below heat advisory criteria through Saturday,
but we may have to consider reintroducing advisory headlines for
at least some parts of our E/SE zones on Sunday.

Beyond the weekend, it`s still much of the same in terms of the
overall pattern with the exception of that aforementioned sfc
frontal boundary approaching from the north by Tuesday into early
Wednesday. This boundary could serve as more of a focus for some
diurnally driven convection, especially across our northern zones.
Meanwhile, we may be dealing with a different seasonal challenge
in our southern half as medium-range guidance continues to suggest
that an advancing plume of Saharan dust caught up in the easterlies
will continue to shift across the Atlantic toward our region early
next week. This will definitely be something to monitor as we move
through the weekend and into early next week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

TSRA/SHRA coverage is not nearly as widespread this afternoon as
in previous days, but what is present happens to be located around
the local terminals as VCSH is just south of the MLU terminal,
with ongoing TSRA near LFK. As to be expected, the diurnally
driven support will come to a close and convection will collapse
through the evening. Again, remnant cloud debris from local
convection, along with surrounding convection outside of the local
airspace, will support FEW/SCT aloft through sunrise. Another
diurnally driven SCT/BKN CU field will materialize tomorrow
afternoon, sitting at or just below 5kft. Similar to today, hi-res
support advertises afternoon showers and thunderstorms that will
be within the vicinity of the local terminals. Terminal winds will
hold S/SW between 3-5kt through the period.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 3:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2025

While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms
capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter
activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not
likely through tonight, although any reports of strong winds or
trees down would be appreciated.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  95  77  95 /  10  10   0  20
MLU  75  94  75  94 /  10  30  10  30
DEQ  72  91  72  92 /  20  30   0  20
TXK  75  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ELD  73  93  73  93 /  10  30  10  30
TYR  75  92  75  93 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  74  93  74  93 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  73  93  73  93 /  20  10   0  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...53