494
FXUS64 KSHV 281734
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1134 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- The next rounds of rain will return by Saturday morning with a
  wet weather pattern continuing into early next week.

- While uncertainty remains elevated, some low-end potential
  exists (< 20%-30%) for wintry precipitation on Monday and
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Our next chance of rain is already on the way across Washington
state as Thanksgiving night remains the last dry night for a while
across the Four State Region. Rain will begin to return overnight
tomorrow as the initial trough quickly ejects from the
Intermountain West with convection increasing through the day on
Saturday. Enough ingredients will be present in the atmosphere
from the following trough (mid-level lapse rates of 7+ C/km) for
the development of thunderstorms capable of producing hail (and
some damaging winds), especially along and south of the I-20
corridor. Subsequent frontal passage on Sunday will introduce the
coldest air of the season so far. Combined with Pacific moisture,
medium-range guidance continues to indicate increasing potential
for wintry precipitation, most likely in the form of freezing
rain. That said, uncertainty remains regarding the alignment of
enough cold air, moisture and lift for wintry precipitation, all
of which adds up to a 20-30% chance of occurrence at this time.
Temperatures will remain near-normal (maximums in the 60s,
minimums in the 40s) until Sunday as the next air mass is ushered
in with frontal passage to bring temperatures back below normal
into the first days of December: maximums in the 50s, minimums in
the 20s-30s at the coldest on Monday night before rebounding back
to normal by mid-week. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Cigs will gradually increase overnight tonight ahead of the next
round of rain. While there is confidence on widespread rain,
timing is the more difficult aspect to pin down. As it stands,
rain will impact KTYR and KTXK first around 30/04z and spread
southeastward through the morning. Surface winds will be out of
the southeast and gust to 15+ mph and visibilities will be likely
to drop during periods of heavier rainfall. Rain will continue
through the end of the period and likely stick around for many
sites over the next several days. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 116 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  46  65  38 /   0  60  80  90
MLU  57  41  63  40 /   0  10  70 100
DEQ  57  40  54  27 /   0  80  90  40
TXK  58  44  60  33 /   0  70  90  70
ELD  55  38  57  32 /   0  40  90  90
TYR  61  48  65  34 /   0  70  70  60
GGG  61  46  65  34 /   0  70  80  80
LFK  62  46  70  39 /   0  60  70 100

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...57