105
FXUS64 KSHV 090550
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1150 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

 - Freezing fog and widespread frost will be the primary concerns
   for tonight along with some lingering low clouds that could
   impact lows.

 - The week ahead will be mostly dry with a steady warming trend
   through Thursday, followed by unseasonably mild temperatures
   into Saturday.

 - The next strong cold front will move through the area sometime
   this weekend, although there remains some uncertainty on timing
   and location.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The primary concern for the rest of the night will be the
persistence of a low-level cloud deck, particularly across our
Louisiana parishes, which has exhibited a recent westward
expansion. This shallow cloud shield will critically influence
overnight radiational cooling, leading to some stark temperature
gradients across the area. Areas that have successfully cleared
out are already experiencing temperatures in the low to mid-30s.
In contrast, those lingering beneath the cloud cover are being
insulated some, holding temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40
degrees. Based on this highly localized clearing, a widespread low
of 30-35 degrees is in the forecast, though this may be too
ambitious for some locations. Furthermore, the combination of
light winds, and some low-level moisture, we are seeing the
development of fog across portions of the area, mainly across far
east Texas. Of particular concern is the potential for this fog to
interact with the cold temperatures, leading to some instances of
freezing fog in some locations. A more benign, widespread frost
event is also expected for most of the region, higher chances for
those that remain clear through the night. This pattern will
necessitate a close monitoring of surface observations throughout
the overnight hours for any advisories that might be needed.

Beyond this, the mid-week period from Tuesday through Thursday
appears comparatively tranquil, characterized by dry conditions
and a welcome increase in diurnal temperatures. A weak, high-
amplitude cold fronted will traverse the region between Wednesday
and Thursday, but is expected to be largely moisture-starved and
will only impart a negligible reduction in temperatures. The most
significant forecast challenge will remain the timing and speed of
the next cold front. Recent model runs have trended toward a
slower progression, suggesting the frontal boundary may not begin
its push until Saturday. This slower evolution implies a period of
unseasonably mild temperatures on Friday and Saturday, with highs
potentially reaching the 70s across the southern half of the area.
A cooler and more seasonable air mass will filter into the region
on Sunday and for the start of the week. Rain chances associated
with this frontal passage will remain low and are expected to be
primarily confined to the northeastern zones Saturday night into
Sunday. The trend towards deceleration will be closely watched to
fine-tune the weekend temperature and precipitation forecast.

/33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

For the 09/06Z TAF period, MVFR/IFR cigs have slowly retrograded
westward from KELD/KMLU this evening and are now poised to move
into KSHV and possibly KTXK over the next few hours. In addition,
will be closely monitoring for the development of dense fog based
on the latest trends in observations and hi-res guidance showing
rapid onset mainly across our AR/LA sites shortly after this TAF
period begins. Farther west across East TX, dense fog appears less
likely as drier air remains in place but did include TEMPO vsby
reductions with patchy fog possible around daybreak. Conditions
should gradually improve areawide by late morning with just some
cirrus passing through during the afternoon. Light and variable to
near calm winds are expected overnight with a quick shift to S/SW
on Tuesday as high pressure shifts eastward. Speeds will generally
range between 6-12 kts on Tuesday with some higher gusts possible
across western terminals.

/19/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time, but reports on
any slick spots on elevated bridges or overpasses would be greatly
appreciated during the overnight period coming.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  35  60  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  33  57  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  29  57  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  33  59  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  30  56  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  62  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  61  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  63  44  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...19