966
FXUS64 KSHV 091136 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
536 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - Late night frontal passage will advect a cold airmass into the
   region, resulting in some of the coldest temperatures of the season.

 - The Freeze Watch in place has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning
   for the entire warning area for Sunday night into Monday
   morning.

 - Rain chances remain little to none as temperatures will
   gradually rebound through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The long awaited cold front progged to work across the region
tonight is finally underway as the KSHV radar outlines the
boundary currently moving across the Shreveport-Bossier metro.
Ahead of the boundary, patchy fog exists, but is quickly washing
out due to the advancing front. The boundary will continue to push
south through the overnight, and exit the region before sunrise.
Though the boundary is quickly racing south, the cold air
advection behind the front will take some extra time to settle in.
That being said, local observations suggest that the dry air in
the wake of the boundary is rapidly moving south as dew points
have already plunged into the 20`s north of I-30, with 40`s
between the I-20 corridor and the south side of I-30. By the
morning, temperatures will be in the 50`s with daytime highs only
reaching the low and mid 60`s. At the same time, gusty NW winds
will exist through the afternoon with sustained 15-20 mph winds,
with gust near 25 mph.

It won`t be until Sunday night that the post-frontal airmass will
fully settle in as Monday morning temperatures will be in the
20`s and 30`s. Given the influence of the airmass, the Freeze
Watch for Sunday night and Monday morning has been upgraded to a
Freeze Warning set to go into effect starting at 9 PM CST Sunday,
and lasting until 9 AM CST Monday. Freezing temperatures at or
below 32 deg F are expected, with the coldest temperatures expected
across the northern zones where a mix of mid and upper 20`s are
likely. The influence of the airmass will linger through the day
as highs will only top out into the mid 50`s, with some upper 40`s
across the NE zones in SW Arkansas. Monday night into Tuesday
will be a similar theme as what didn`t freeze Monday morning will
likely freeze Tuesday morning as similar lows are expected across
the region.

We will quickly escape the cold temperatures as highs Tuesday
afternoon will already return to the mid and upper 60`s with some
of the SW zones seeing highs near 70. By Wednesday, areawide
70`s, with the potential for a stray 80 deg F or two will return.
The theme here is clear as we head towards the end of the period
that a quick warmup (roughly a 30 degree high temp rebound from
Monday to Friday) is the plan. It is worth noting that in the
midst of all of this, rainfall continues to be hard to come by.
Long term progs however do suggest that prospects may increase as
we head into next weekend. In the meantime, and with the dry and
breezy conditions expected in the wake of the front, fire weather
concerns will need to be closely monitored citing dry soils and
low relative humidity values.

53

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the 09/12Z TAF period. A
strong cold front has quickly shifted SE into SW/SCntrl LA into
Srn MS this morning, although various AC/cirrus cigs along the
base on the attendant upper trough will continue to develop/shift
ENE across the region this morning before diminishing by midday.
However, an extensive low VFR cu field over NE OK/much of Ncntrl
AR will continue to quickly spill S into the region by mid to late
morning, with cu cigs possible at ELD/MLU through much of the
afternoon. A scattered cu field is possible farther W across SW
AR/NW LA into E TX, but should diminish by late afternoon/early
evening. Afterwards, SKC should prevail through the end of the TAF
period. NNW winds will increase to 13-18kts by 15Z, with frequent
gusts to 25-30kts through late afternoon. Winds will gradually
diminish through mid-evening, and to 5-8kts by/after 06Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Spotter activation will not be needed through Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  33  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  63  32  51  29 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  55  27  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  59  30  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  29  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  32  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  62  32  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  67  34  56  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     OKZ077.

TX...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15