419
FXUS64 KSHV 211212
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
612 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1214 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Unsettled weather will continue through Friday night before
   quieter conditions return for much of the upcoming weekend
   with the passage of a weak cold front.

 - While above normal temperatures will continue this weekend,
   drier air behind a weak cold front Friday night/Saturday
   morning will result in less humid conditions Saturday and
   Sunday.

 - Much needed rainfall is poised to return to the region Sunday
   night through Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The late evening water vapor imagery indicates that the shortwave
trough extends from Wrn OK into E TX, with an axis of much drier
air aloft spilling NE in wake of the trough. This mid/upper level
drying coincides well with the mosaic radar imagery, with the
most organized convection over SW AR in VC of a MCV exiting Nevada
County, and convection becoming more scattered to the SW into E
and Cntrl TX. Still have one more spoke of energy to contend with
overnight along the base of this trough/vorticity axis over Cntrl
TX, with a narrow line of convection marching E through the I-35
corridor and possibly reaching the Wrn sections of E TX before
daybreak Friday. Fortunately, instability has diminished within
the still highly sheared environment, with MLCape having
diminished to around 500 J/kg that has been worked over from
earlier convection. While locally gusty winds may accompany the
stronger storms late assuming they hold together, brief heavy
rainfall will remain possible as well overnight given the high
PW`s of 1.6-1.8 inches extending from SW AR SW into E TX.

While the short term progs are not handling the tailing convection
over Cntrl TX well at all, additional scattered convection
development can not be ruled out overnight through Friday, as a
very moist air mass will linger and additional forcing will be
added to the mix via an approaching dryline into Ern OK/ECntrl TX
Friday afternoon. Thus, have maintained chance pops areawide
Friday, tapering pops back to slight chance Friday night from
Lower E TX into N LA/SCntrl AR as additional drier air aloft
begins to mix ENE across the region ahead of this sfc bndry. A
weak cold front will eventually overtake the dryline from the NW
Friday night, which should help to reinforce the drier air mass,
while also tapering temps back some 5-10 degrees this weekend, but
still above the daily norms. The front should continue to shift S
out of the region by midday Saturday to just offshore the SE TX/S
LA coasts by daybreak Sunday, resulting in more comfortable RH`s
for a change than what has been observed for much of the past
week. Post-frontal stratocu should begin to spill S to areas N of
I-20 by Saturday afternoon, thus limiting the warmup to these
areas, before possibly spreading farther S across the remainder of
the area Saturday night. However, the comfortable RH`s will begin
to modify by Sunday night with the return of a SSErly low level
flow and the Nwd approach of a warm front.

The low level moisture advection will increase ahead of a
developing closed low diving S along the CA coast attm, which will
slowly drift E through the Desert SW late this weekend before
opening into a trough Sunday night as it ejects NE through the Srn
Rockies out into the Cntrl Plains. Large scale forcing will
increase along and N of the returning warm front into the Ozarks
Sunday night, with additional development occurring farther S
along the W TX dryline, with the convection expected to march E to
the I-30 corridor late Sunday night, and across the remainder of
the region Monday. While the 12Z progs had backed off on storm
total QPF with the early week system, the 00Z runs have beefed QPF
back up again, which makes sense given the ample moisture
available and slow movement of the ejecting trough. Can`t rule out
a localized flood threat Sunday night/Monday mainly along/N of the
I-30 corridor which received widespread 1-3 inch amounts earlier
Thursday/Thursday night, with beneficial rains expected elsewhere
which should not receive much overnight tonight through Friday. A
second deepening trough over the Plains Tuesday will help to
reinforce a cold front Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, finally
returning much cooler and more seasonal air back into the region
for mid and late week, in time for the Thanksgiving holiday. Could
also see the return of freezing temps to SE OK and portions of SW
AR by Thanksgiving and Friday mornings as well.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, mixed Category bag this morning with
overnight rainfall still nearing KLFK/KELD. Many sites have a
tempo group for low cigs/BR this am with light S wind and high
RH. Additional shower/Isold TS activity remains possible as a weak
fropa is on approach for this aftn/eve. SW winds will be veering
to W/NW and 5 to 10 KT. And we look to have a decent weekend
coming with high pressure, then another secondary upper low and
front will bring more convection late Sun/Mon for our sites. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1214 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed through Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  58  75  49 /  40  20   0   0
MLU  82  61  78  51 /  40  20   0   0
DEQ  74  48  67  45 /  30  10   0   0
TXK  77  54  69  48 /  40  10   0   0
ELD  79  53  72  47 /  30  20   0   0
TYR  77  53  70  50 /  50  10   0   0
GGG  79  54  72  48 /  40  10   0   0
LFK  82  61  78  52 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24