396
FXUS64 KSHV 291959
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
159 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 117 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand across the
   region through early Sunday as a strong cold front ushers in
   sharply colder air for early next week.

 - A Marginal Risk of severe storms will precede the cold frontal
   passage late today into tonight, mainly over parts of East TX.

 - A more progressive pattern will bring another trough passage on
   Monday, leading to more rainfall along with the possibility of
   some brief wintry mixed precipitation along and north of I-30.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

After somewhat of a lull in convection over the past few hours,
radar is beginning to fill back in once again, especially along
and north of the I-30 corridor. This is occurring north of an
advancing warm front that continues to make additional progress
northward into East TX and the adjacent areas of LA to include
the Shreveport/Bossier City metro area. Some breaks in the cloud
cover have also occurred where the warm front has managed to lift
north.

Moving through the remainder of this afternoon and evening, expect
a cold front currently advancing into southern and eastern OK to
induce more widespread showers and thunderstorms as the cold front
begins to interact with the warmer airmass farther south near I-20
in East TX. Based on the current placement of the warm front, it
still appears that the threat of a few strong to marginally severe
storms will be confined to East TX and slightly eastward into the
western portions of LA. This is where the warmer air at the sfc
should contribute to a slight uptick in instability, albeit still
rather minimal. So while the severe threat is marginal at best, a
few storms could become strong enough to generate isolated large
hail and damaging wind gusts in our SW zones. A non-zero tornado
threat is also still in play but should be largely confined to
areas of SE TX just outside of our CWA.

Beyond tonight, the majority of convection should be exiting our
region around daybreak on Sunday. Some lingering showers and a few
storms may still be impacting our far southern zones, but gradual
clearing is expected to continue through mid to late morning into
the afternoon as the cold front advances south toward the coast.
Strong CAA will quickly overtake the entire region in the wake of
the front with Sunday`s high temperatures only climbing into the
mid 40s to lower 50s with gusty north winds making it feel ever
colder.

Despite the front advancing well south near the coast, moisture
will quickly return overnight into Monday as strong overrunning
sets up in advance of the next major shortwave pivoting eastward
from the Rockies into the Southern Plains. As if often the case,
this overrunning scenario could present some potential issues in
the form of light wintry precipitation following immediately on
the heels of a strong cold front. The extent to which moisture
recovery occurs and just how quickly it occurs will be key, and
have continued to maintain a window of wintry mixed precipitation
mainly along and especially to the north of the I-30 corridor by
early Monday morning and again late Monday night/early Tuesday
while temperatures in between those times are expected to climb
above freezing on Monday afternoon. Therefore, current thinking is
that any frozen precip accumulations and their impacts to travel
will be minimal.

Any lingering precipitation should quickly exit the region prior
to daybreak on Tuesday with dry conditions returning and lasting
through Wednesday along with a gradual warming trend. However, a
very progressive pattern will bring another disturbance into the
region by Wednesday night and Thursday with wet weather resuming
once again for late next week.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Most sites are borderline VFR/MVFR with VCSH prevailing as this
mornings showers have become more scattered. Showers will stay
that way with gradually lowering cigs and gusty northerly winds.
Another round of showers will move in from the northwest this
afternoon. Confidence on embedded thunderstorms is lower with the
general lack of warmth and instability, but there is still a
chance of some rumbles of thunder and severe weather hazards. The
cold front will push rain out of the region overnight. There is
also some uncertainty on fog development, as the airmass behind
the cold front will be drier but heavy rain could combat the
moisture issue. Clouds should gradually lift through the morning
and return to high MVFR/low VFR by the end of the period.

/57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 117 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through
tonight with a few strong to severe storms possible, mainly in
East Texas.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  50  39  44 /  90  10  30  70
MLU  41  49  36  44 /  90  30  30  80
DEQ  27  46  29  38 /  30   0  10  60
TXK  33  48  33  39 /  70   0  20  70
ELD  33  45  31  38 /  90   0  20  70
TYR  36  47  37  43 /  70   0  30  70
GGG  36  48  36  43 /  90  10  30  80
LFK  41  51  39  48 /  90  20  50  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...57