487
FXUS64 KSHV 140003
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
703 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

 - Upper-level ridging will allow late summer heat to remain
   across the region, with more heat advisories likely beyond
   today through at least the first half of the upcoming week.

 - Rain chances will be largely negligible throughout the week as
   well, with only very isolated afternoon convection due to the
   influence of the dominant upper ridge.

 - The ridge is expected to migrate back westward by late next
   weekend, paving the way for cooler weather to make its way
   south into our region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Upper ridging continues to build into the region. Most of the area
has remained dry today, but some isolated to scattered convection
has developed over locations on the eastern periphery of the
building ridge axis. This trend will continue through the
remainder of the afternoon before diminishing during the early evening
hours. From there, another mild and quiet night can be expected,
with lows ranging from the low to mid 70s. With the building
ridge in place, the current Heat Advisory over the entire Four-
State Region will be allowed to continue through Monday evening.
Afternoon highs on Monday will continue to range from the mid 90s
to around 100 degrees. Some additional isolated afternoon
convection will be possible again along the eastern periphery of
the ridge, which will generally be locations in South-Central
Arkansas and North & Central Louisiana east of the I-49 corridor.

Upper ridging will become anchored across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and over the region through most of the upcoming work
week. Expect drier conditions, although a stray isolated shower
and thunderstorm can`t be ruled out during peak heating. Heat
headlines will likely remain across the region and cause some
elevated fire weather concerns. However, long-term models continue
to suggest a pattern change, with the ridge sliding west of the
area. At the same time, the models continue to suggest some
activity in the northern Gulf, which will need to be watched
closely. This pattern change looks to bring us some much needed
rain and cooler weather. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

For the 14/00Z TAF update, another round of VCTS/-TSRA continues
to weaken across the eastern airspace with lingering stratiform
rains/-RA and isolated MVFR cigs. After 14/03Z, most convection
will dissipate and clear the area, leaving FEW/SCT250 until
14/20Z as the next round of VCTS convection is set to redevelop
once again from east to west through the end of the period. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Spotter activation is not expected, but an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across parts of South-
Central Arkansas and Northeast Louisiana through the early evening
hours. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77 100  77  99 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  76  99  75  99 /  20  20   0  10
DEQ  72  99  72  99 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  76  99  76  99 /  20  10   0   0
ELD  74  99  73  99 /  20  20   0  10
TYR  76  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  75 100  74 100 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  74  97  74  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...16