869
FXUS64 KSHV 010035
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
735 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

 - Areas of light rainfall will continue pushing northeast across
   the ArkLaTex, tapering off overnight tonight from west to
   east, with dry and warmer conditions Sunday and Monday.

 - Rain will return late Monday, continuing through the day
   Tuesday. Periods of heavy rainfall may result in flash
   flooding development. A few rumbles of thunder are possible.

 - Behind the cold front, more seasonable temperatures will
   prevail through the end of the work week, with highs in the 70s
   and lows in the 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered showers continue to trek from southwest to northeast
across the ArkLaTex this afternoon. Rain rates have been light to
moderate with limited accumulations of up to a few tenths of an inch
so far. As the grey, cloudy daytime fades to twilight on this All
Hallows Eve, this primary impulse of moisture is expected to be in
the process of departing to the northeast. As of this writing, there
is only isolated additional convection to our southwest preparing to
move into the region. However, the latest HRRR and NAM 3km both keep
conditions fairly rainy into the evening, which seems to be a result
of struggling to capture the timing of today`s moisture. That being
said, enough signals point to a push of additional showers across
our south and east into the evening to carry Chc PoPs overnight for
our easternmost zones. This trend looks reasonably favorable for our
trick-or-treaters to have the opportunity to get outside this
evening, though being prepared with an umbrella and ready to dodge
showers and drizzle would still be advisable.

The bulk of today`s rainfall will have exited the region overnight,
though a few lingering showers are possible Sunday morning across
our easternmost zones. As we turn back the clocks, temperatures will
drop into the middle 50s north to lower 60s south, quickly
rebounding into the lower 80s Sunday afternoon amidst drier
conditions and clearing skies under upper level ridging extending
from Texas over the Ouachitas and Ozarks before sweeping eastward
into Monday as our next weathermaker approaches.

The next chance of rain for the ArkLaTex looks on track to begin
Monday evening overnight into Tuesday. The longwave trough pushing
onshore this afternoon will advance eastwards over the next tow
days, deepening as it does so, with an axis extending from the
Canadian border down the Front Range to New Mexico. By Monday
evening, the leading edge of the trough will be pushing across
central Oklahoma and north Texas, where the best chance for severe
development exists, along the I-35 corridor. As has lately been the
story, confidence in storms remaining strong to severe eastward into
the ArkLaTex is not there at this time.

However, trends do look favorable for periods of heavy rainfall
leading to areas of flash flooding Monday night and through the day
Tuesday. While much-needed relief from the current drought would be
welcome, our prolonged dry conditions have resulted in very dry
soils which will struggle to absorb rainfall at first, increasing
the degree of initial runoff. Small streams and areas of poor
drainage may be vulnerable, with urban flash flooding also a
possibility.

Tuesday`s showers and storms will taper off overnight into Wednesday
morning. Long range synoptic scale guidance suggests a secondary low
will eject east across the Plains Thursday, which may kick up a few
additional showers, but PoPs remain low at this point. Otherwise,
dry conditions look to prevail through the end of the week ahead.
Behind the cold front, temperatures look to return to near-
seasonable values, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s through
the end of this extended forecast period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

For the 01/00Z TAF period, conditions are expected to deteriorate
this evening and overnight with low stratus cigs returning across
our entire airspace. In addition, the abundant low-level moisture
trapped beneath a growing inversion will support fog development
after 01/06Z with areas of dense fog possible closer to daybreak.
For now, have trended all TAFs toward IFR/LIFR cigs and IFR vsby
restrictions to account for these expected trends over the next
12-18 hours. Some patchy light rain and drizzle also cannot be
ruled out early in the period, but coverage should be minimal.
Beyond that, slow but gradual improvement should result in MVFR
to low VFR cigs returning toward midday on Sunday along with fog
lifting/dissipating. Winds will remain mostly light and variable
around 5 kts or less throughout the TAF period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  81  63  82 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  63  82  64  83 /  50  30  10  10
DEQ  55  81  57  83 /  40  10   0  10
TXK  58  80  60  82 /  30  10   0   0
ELD  57  81  59  82 /  40  20  10   0
TYR  61  82  64  84 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  59  82  61  84 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  61  84  63  84 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19