104
FXUS64 KSHV 231906
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
206 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

 - Above average temperatures and prolonged dry conditions will
   maintain an elevated wildfire risk throughout much of the 7-day
   forecast period.

 - The lack of appreciable rainfall and growing rainfall deficit
   will result in further drought degradation through the end of
   this month.

 - Longer range guidance just beyond the next 7 days suggests the
   potential for a more active pattern closer to Halloween into
   early November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

An anomalously strong ridge aloft for early fall will continue to
keep much of the central and eastern CONUS above average as far
as high temperatures are concerned through early next week. As the
center of the ridge axis effectively shifts overhead on Saturday,
expect our warmest temperatures of the next 7 days with afternoon
highs topping out in the mid 80s once again. With time, the ridge
axis will gradually shift farther east through early next week. In
turn, high temperatures will ease ever so slightly back closer to
seasonal averages in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Meanwhile, drier
air in place will continue to maintain lower humidity and pleasant
mornings/evenings with overnight lows dropping back into the upper
40s to mid 50s. Unfortunately, the dry air also means a continued
fire danger under worsening drought-stricken conditions as min RH
values hold in the 20-35 percent range each afternoon this weekend
and likely continuing into early next week. Therefore, will extend
the existing Fire Danger Statement through Tuesday afternoon.

Despite the dry conditions prevailing into early next week, medium
range guidance continues to favor a pattern shift by next weekend.
As this expected pattern shift remains roughly a week out, changes
in the timing and evolution of a major longwave pattern shift are
to be expected. For now, Gulf moisture returning across our region
still appears likely by the end of next week into next weekend. In
addition, the ridge axis is expected to largely flatten out if not
erode entirely as deepening SW flow aloft begins to set up across
our region. This SW flow pattern typically favors more active and
unsettled weather during this time of year so we will continue to
hone in on more specific forecast details as we draw closer to the
end of October into early November.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

For the 23/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will continue to prevail
throughout the forecast period, with only a few high clouds and
otherwise mostly clear skies. East-southeast winds will continue
at 5 to 10 kts, becoming light overnight, trending southerly and
resuming speeds of 4 to 7 kts during the day tomorrow.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Spotter activation may be needed through this weekend in the event
of wildfire development.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  85  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  85  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  49  87  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  52  86  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  48  86  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  85  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  51  86  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  85  53  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...26