Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
801 FXUS64 KSHV 012357 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 557 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1206 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Warm temperatures in the 80s across most locations will persist through the upcoming work week. - Changes in the upper-level weather pattern will bring much needed rain to our forecast area from midweek into the weekend. - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday and again on Friday across the northwest half our our region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Low to mid-level trough moving across the region could allow for a few showers this afternoon and tonight, mainly across the I-30 corridor. Southerly winds 10 to 15 mph this afternoon combined with afternoon relative humidity values around 35 percent across east and northeast Texas could lead to a limited wildfire threat over these areas. Northwest flow above 500mb to become zonal followed by southwest through Tuesday as the prevailing upper-level ridge shifts east of the region. An upper-level trough will deepen across the desert southwest on Tuesday and move into Texas by Wednesday helping to destabilize the atmosphere across the ArkLaTex. Rich low-level moisture characterized by dewpoint values on in the 60s will extend across the entire ArkLaTex bounded to the north by a frontal boundary across Oklahoma. This moisture will further aid in helping to destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the approaching trough. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary on Wednesday afternoon and evening with a damaging wind and hail threat possible as some storms develop supercellular structures. Southwest flow aloft to prevail across the region through the remainder of the forecast period, allowing for continued rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The stronger storms, capable of producing a severe weather threat on Friday will be focused along the frontal boundary which will have retreated north into central Texas, Oklahoma, and northwest Arkansas. Southeast Oklahoma could be on the eastern fringes of the severe weather threat on Friday evening as the front advances back southward to the ArkLaTex. With the front lingering across the region through the weekend, widespread rainfall can be expected areawide, helping to mitigate ongoing drought and wildfire concerns. Temperatures through the work will average in the lower 80s through Thursday, approaching the mid 80s by Friday. Otherwise, unsettled conditions through the weekend will limit afternoon highs to the 70s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 VFR conditions prevail across the region this evening with some high-level clouds moving in from the northwest. Surface winds should begin to calm slightly over the next several hours, with higher winds generally in the western half of the region. MVFR to IFR cigs are expected to develop from the south beginning as soon as 02/06z for KLFK and move north to impact KTYR, KGGG, and KSHV by daybreak. There is more confidence on the low cigs compared to the potential fog development, but this package still holds on to some lower vsbys for the previously mentioned sites. Ceilings and fog should work to mix out by late morning on Monday, leaving mostly clear skies for the afternoon. /57/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 937 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Spotter activation is still not expected through the upcoming weekend. However, please continue to relay information on wildfire activity across the Four-State area, to help our first responders protect life and property. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 56 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 53 81 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 53 79 53 80 / 20 10 0 10 TXK 57 82 59 83 / 10 10 0 10 ELD 53 81 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 56 82 61 83 / 0 10 0 10 GGG 54 83 58 84 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 55 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...57