424
FXUS64 KSHV 301100
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
600 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

 - Temperatures in the low to mid 90s will continue through the
   weekend and into early next week.

 - Isolated rain chances are expected through this weekend and
   become slightly more expansive next week.

 - Little accumulation should accompany the showers this period,
   although some isolated severe hazards could come with any
   stronger pop-up convection.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Observational analysis this evening depicts a weak upper-level
ridge over the region with a trough over much of the Intermountain
West. The ridge should weaken through the weekend before another
stronger ridge builds in from the southwest by the beginning of
next week. Despite the presence of these ridges, models are
suggesting that afternoon convection will be possible through the
weekend. Models generally highlight our eastern and northeastern
zones as the focus for these showers, but these pop-up showers
could develop anywhere in the region with afternoon temperatures
reaching the low to mid 90s. The general lack of upper-level
support minimizes the risk of widespread severe weather but
isolated severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. The scattered
nature of these showers should also keep the flooding risk
limited.

Rain chances slightly increase both in likelihood and coverage
with the beginning of the building ridge on Monday and continue
through the work week. These showers should be a combination of
afternoon convection and some pockets of forcing in the upper-
level flow, which can make pinning exact locations difficult.
Any rain that does fall looks like it will produce little in terms
of accumulation, as WPC D1-7 QPF in the region is limited to
around an inch. Severe potential with these also look to be
minimal right now, but will be monitored. Temperatures are likely
to stay in the 90s through much of the week thanks to the ridge.
Some areas might get enough of a cooldown to make it into the
upper 80s in the latter half of the week, but relief will be
minuscule.

Long-range models are beginning to suggest a pattern shift coming
next weekend that would plant the Ark-La-Tx in northwest flow.
This regime has the potential to bring more organized rain to the
area with any disturbances that propagate down this flow,
assuming that this pattern shift does occur.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

For the 30/12z TAF period...Some patchy fog at KELD should lift
over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
to prevail through most of the period with some passing mid and
high cloud, along with some afternoon CU. There is a chance for
some isolated convection to develop this afternoon into the early
evening hours across our Southern Arkansas and Northern Louisiana
airspace, so decided to add VCTS at KSHV/KMLU/KTXK/KELD during
this period. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  94  75 /  10  10  10   0
MLU  91  74  92  74 /  20  20  30  20
DEQ  91  73  92  71 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  93  75  94  73 /  10  20  10  10
ELD  91  72  91  72 /  20  20  30  10
TYR  93  76  94  76 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  93  76  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  74  94  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20