815
FXUS64 KSHV 010541
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1241 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

 - The anticipated wet weather pattern will begin in earnest by
   Thursday as rounds of showers/thunderstorms shift in from the
   west.

 - The best rain chances will remain west of I-49 through the
   weekend with rainfall totals most likely in the 1-3 inch range
   by next week.

 - Temperatures will remain near-normal as a result of wet
   weather into early next week (maximums of mid-to-upper 80s on
   average).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Aloft, a fairly healthy southwesterly flow continues ahead of a
cut off upper-level area of low pressure emerging into the
Southern Plains. This mid-latitude cyclone will gradually eject
and fill/weaken through the day on Thursday, elongating into a
trough axis in a process that continues through the weekend into
next week. Attendant and coincident to this troughing is a frontal
boundary that will drive the bulk of multi-day rain chances
across the Four State Region. Short-range guidance continues to
suggest rounds of convection maximizing in the next 48-60 hours
from extra lift and moisture collecting along the approaching
frontal boundary. While daytime heating will play a role in
building instability, background vorticity advection will maintain
ample convective potential through the overnight hours, setting
the stage for day and nighttime rounds of precipitation. With the
bulk of expected precipitation falling west of I-49, medium-range
guidance suggests a corridor of rainfall totals most likely in the
1 to 3 inch range with an opposite corridor across Deep East
Texas into Louisiana carrying less than a 40% probability of
greater than 0.5 inch of rainfall per 24 hour period.

Long-range guidance suggests a slight pause or break of the wet
weather pattern by the middle of next week as post-frontal surface
ridging and quasi-zonal flow aloft sets back in across the Mid-
South. It remains to be resolved if Pacific tropical moisture is
injected back into this flow later next week to restore rain
chances, as some model guidance members may suggest. The combined
activity over the next 72-hours will maintain near-normal
temperatures as a result (maximums/minimums of mid-to-upper
80s/lower 60s). By the middle of next week, post-frontal
temperature minimums may reach the mid-50s north of I-20 for a
sample of Fall weather. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

For the 01/06Z TAFs, SCT to BKN lower VFR CIGs will continue
through the night before dropping to MVFR near or just before
daybreak, and rebounding to VFR into the morning hours. RA will
build in from the northwest through the morning and continue
through the remainder of this forecast period, with impacts most
likely at KTYR, KGGG, KLFK, and KTXK, possibly KSHV. Periodic VSBY
reductions due to heavy rainfall are possible as well as a few
rumbles of thunder. Southerly winds will continue throughout at
speeds of 5 to 10 kts, increasing to sustained speeds of 10 to 15
kts during the late morning and early afternoon with gusts up to
25 kts possible.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 504 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Spotter activation could be needed by tomorrow evening into
Friday. Although some damaging winds can`t be ruled out, flash
flooding will by the primary threat, especially across East Texas,
SE Oklahoma, and portions of Southwest Arkansas along and north of
Interstate 30.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  73  87  70 /  20  30  50  50
MLU  95  73  93  70 /  10  10  50  30
DEQ  90  65  79  61 /  60  90  70  50
TXK  93  68  81  63 /  30  80  70  60
ELD  94  70  87  64 /  10  30  50  50
TYR  91  71  81  69 /  70  80  80  70
GGG  95  70  85  67 /  50  60  70  70
LFK  92  71  87  70 /  50  40  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...26