036
FXUS64 KSHV 301019
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
519 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

 - Above average temperatures and dry conditions will maintain
   elevated fire danger concerns today with increasing SE winds
   and low afternoon RH values.

 - A pattern change will bring a low-end risk of heavy rain and
   severe storms across our far W/NW zones by Thursday, with rain
   chances increasing areawide through the end of this week.

 - Cooler temperatures are expected to follow by this weekend with
   a cold front expected to shift south and usher in the coolest
   air so far this fall season by the first full week of October.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

One more day to go with widespread lower to mid 90s is expected
today as upper ridging departs to the east, signaling a coming
pattern shift for late week into the upcoming weekend with rain
chances increasing areawide. In the meantime, today`s weather
concern centers on the ongoing fire danger as hot temperatures
will contribute to low afternoon RH in the 30-45% range. Add to
that the increasing SE winds today, and you have the recipe for
rapid fire starts and wildfire growth from any flames or sparks
due to critically dry fuels and parched vegetation. Therefore, a
Fire Danger Statement has been issued for today across our entire
region.

Moving into Wednesday night and Thursday, the much advertised
pattern shift referenced above will begin to manifest as tropical
Pacific moisture from the remnants of Polo continue to lift NE
across the eastern half of Texas. The surging moisture plume will
quickly be absorbed by an eastward advancing upper trough shifting
from the Desert SW into the Southern Rockies, gradually spreading
farther east across the Middle Red River Valley into our region
from Wednesday night throughout the day on Thursday. The axis of
heaviest rainfall will likely set up invof of the I-35 corridor to
our west but may extend as far east as our northwesternmost zones
in NE TX and SE OK where a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall has
been highlighted for Thursday and Thursday night, before expanding
slightly farther east on Friday. In addition, the threat of some
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts
generally occupies the same areas in NE TX and SE OK on Thursday
into Thursday night.

As we move through Friday and into the weekend, remnant moisture
will then interact with a cold front advancing southward into the
region. This front will provide additional forcing for increasing
convection across the entire region on Friday into Saturday before
the front eventually clears the region late in the weekend. Then a
stronger reinforcing cold front will arrive late Sunday night into
Monday to usher any lingering moisture and associated convection
southward along the coast early in the new work week by Monday
into Tuesday.

Forecast thinking hasn`t really deviated in terms of rainfall
totals as they still appear to range widely from west to east
with as much as 1-3 inches across parts of NE TX and SE OK while
areas farther east in SW AR and North LA are likely to see around
an inch or less. Isolated higher amounts are certainly possible
within any of these areas, and amounts are still somewhat in flux
given forecast uncertainties on the strength and location of the
ridge axis. However, the latest guidance does suggest less of an
influence from the ridge as it shifts east along the SE Atlantic
seaboard this weekend. Therefore, the eastern extent of the heavy
rain axis may shift deeper into NE TX and SE OK before leaving a
sharp gradient of much lighter amounts farther east. Therefore, a
Flood Watch may be considered for these areas with future updates.
What is more certain is that cooler air will gradually infiltrate
the region from the north through the weekend and into early next
week, possibly leading to the coolest air so far this fall season
for the first full week of October.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Have not seen any signs of MVFR ceilings developing as of yet
across NE TX so have backed off beginning the 12z TAF package
prevailing these ceilings at the LFK/TYR and GGG terminals and
instead, will TEMPO these conditions through at least 15z this
morning. Otherwise, very little change from the 06z TAF package
with a gradual cu field developing across our airspace during the
day with thin cirrus continuing as well. Strong pressure gradient in
place Today so have added SSE wind gusts upwards of 18-25kts
across all but the ELD and MLU terminals through mid morning and
continuing through the day. Also introduced MVFR ceilings at all
locations with the exception of the ELD/MLU terminals after
midnight tonight towards sunrise Thu morning.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  93  73 /   0   0  20  40
MLU  96  71  95  72 /   0   0  20  10
DEQ  95  71  89  66 /   0  10  70  80
TXK  94  73  91  69 /   0   0  40  70
ELD  95  70  94  70 /   0   0  20  30
TYR  94  74  91  71 /   0  10  60  80
GGG  96  73  93  70 /   0   0  50  60
LFK  93  72  91  71 /  10   0  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13