251
FXUS64 KSHV 041142
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
642 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

 - Slightly above normal temperatures will continue over the next
   several days, but widespread heat-related impacts are not
   expected.

 - A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms will return
   across portions of the region Sunday, with additional rain
   chances becoming more widespread through the first half of
   next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

With a large upper ridge remaining in place over most of the CONUS
east of the Rockies, along with the influence of a large surface
high in the Mid-Atlantic region, expect dry conditions to remain
in the forecast today. Light winds, mostly clear skies, and a
drier airmass in place, will allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s to lower 60s this morning. As we move into the remainder
of the day, winds will become more easterly, giving us a slight
uptick in low-level atmospheric moisture over the region. This
will result in the development of an expansive CU field during the
afternoon hours. Afternoon highs will remain similar to Friday,
with temperatures generally ranging from the mid 80s to around 90
degrees.

From Sunday through the first couple of days of next week, the upper
ridge will slide eastward along with the Mid-Atlantic surface high.
At the same time, an easterly wave/upper-level disturbance, which
has been lingering across the northern Gulf near the Louisiana
coast, is expected to shift northward and onshore across South
Louisiana during this period.  This will bring a return in rain
chances across the forecast area on these days. Most of the rain is
expected to be confined to our Central and Northeast Louisiana zones
on Sunday, before expanding northward across most of our forecast
zones on Monday and Tuesday. By the middle of next week, an upper
trough will dive south across the CONUS.  This will push a cold
front into our area on Wednesday, keeping rain chances in the
forecast. In wake of this front, dry weather will return, as upper
ridging is expected to build back into the region from the
southwest. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR conditions currently prevailing across our airspace and that
will continue through the next 24 hour TAF period. A tongue to
somewhat higher pwat will be retrograding from east to west across
our airspace today. That moisture will combine with daytime
heating for at least a weak cu field across most of our airspace
and have accounted for that in the 12z TAF package. Any cu field
will have dissipated near or shortly after 00z this evening.
May see that cu field redevelop across portions of our airspace
after midnight or closer to sunrise Sunday Morning but any
ceilings would be brief at or above 4kft.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  67  90  71 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  90  64  89  69 /   0   0  20  10
DEQ  87  61  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  89  64  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  87  61  88  66 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  88  65  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  88  63  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  90  65  91  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19