041
FXUS64 KSHV 212340
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
540 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Quieter conditions will return for much of the upcoming weekend
   with the passage of a weak cold front tonight.

 - While above normal temperatures will continue this weekend,
   drier air behind tonight`s cold front will result in less
   humid conditions Saturday and Sunday.

 - Showers and thunderstorms are poised to return to the region
   Sunday night through Monday night. Locally heavy precipitation
   could result in Excessive Rainfall over the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

In comparison to the pre-dawn hours today, radar has been much
less busier over the past several hours. But, some showers and
isolated thunderstorms remain across portions of East Texas along
and south of the I-20 corridor. This convection is in response to
a lead short-wave disturbance moving across the southwest flow
ahead of the previous mentioned cold front, currently located
near the I-35 corridor of Oklahoma and Texas. Decided to keep
Slight to low Chance pops for areas south of the I-30 corridor
today, as the disturbance continues to move ENE along the flow.
Despite the clouds today, temperatures remain well above normal.
In fact, many locations along and south of I-30, outside of the
rain areas, have already climbed into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
I wouldn`t be surprised to see additional record highs this
afternoon.

By this evening, the cold front will finally move into our
forecast area. Short-term progs suggest that some isolated
convection will be possible along the front. The best chances will
be across Deep East Texas and Northeast & Central Louisiana, essentially
along and south of a line from Lufkin,TX...to...Natchitoches,LA...to
Monroe,LA. Dry conditions will return for the weekend in wake of
the front, along with cooler and less humid conditions.

However, rain chances are forecast to move back into the region
as early as Sunday evening. A much stronger closed trough is
expected to take the same route as the previous system, moving out
of Baja Mexico into the Four Corners Region and ejecting into the
Central Plains. Flow aloft will return back to the southwest over
the region on Sunday, bringing Pacific moisture into the area. At
the same time, tonight`s cool front will return northward as a
warm front, bringing an increase in low-level gulf moisture back
into the region. By Sunday afternoon, widespread showers and
thunderstorms will develop west of I-35 in Texas and Oklahoma
ahead of the associated cool front. This convection will slide
eastward into our forecast zones Sunday evening and continue
through much of Monday next week. Locally heavy precip will be
likely with this system. The Weather Prediction Center continues
to highlight this, with a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for
the majority of our forecast zones during this period. The
associated cold front will bring an end to the rainfall by
Tuesday. Much cooler conditions will move into the area for the
middle and end of the Thanksgiving Holiday week, with highs in the
60s on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Freezing temperatures
remain possible in some areas on Thanksgiving and Black Friday
mornings. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

For the 22/00z TAF period, a line of scattered convection
continues to gradually move east-southeast across Central
Louisiana but should exit the area early in the period. Abundant
mid-level clouds persist across much of Louisiana and into
Southern Arkansas, but VFR flight conditions will initially
prevail at all TAF sites. A cold front will begin to move across
the area around 22/06z, which could result in more scattered
showers and thunderstorms. These should generally be confined to
locations southeast of a line from KLFK to KMLU. KLFK should be
the TAF site most likely to be affected, but confidence for
convection affecting the airport is low, so precip was left out of
this forecast. Surface winds will gradually veer to the northwest
at all locations behind the frontal passage. VFR conditions should
prevail at all TAF sites, but MVFR cigs are possible across
Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas, including KTXK, during
the latter half of the TAF period.

/09/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  73  52  72 /  20   0   0   0
MLU  62  77  51  71 /  20   0   0   0
DEQ  46  66  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  53  68  50  69 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  53  70  47  68 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  52  69  49  71 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  52  70  48  71 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  59  77  49  75 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...09