891
FXUS64 KSHV 100022
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
622 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - A Freeze Warning is in effect through tomorrow morning, as low
   temperatures fall into the middle 20s north to near-freezing
   south. Any sites which do not freeze tonight are expected to do
   so tomorrow night.

 - Elevated northwest winds will make for blustery afternoons and
   elevated fire danger conditions through tomorrow.

 - A warming trend will quickly take over by the middle of the
   week, with highs returning to the 70s and 80s, while dry
   conditions continue until the next rain chances return next
   weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Today`s high temperatures will result from a contest between diurnal
heating and cold air advection. As northwest winds pick up, making
for an increasingly blustery afternoon, mixing will serve to inhibit
runaway warming. North and west, daytime highs will not make it out
of the 50s, while further south, temperatures still have a chance to
reach the middle 60s before the cold airmass takes over. These
elevated winds in tandem with very dry air, will result in elevated
fire danger conditions.

A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the entire region through
tomorrow morning. Low temperatures tonight will plummet into the
middle to upper 20s north, while sites to the south straddle the
freezing mark by daybreak. Temperatures will rebound only into the
50s across the majority of the region, with some highs even in the
upper 40s north and west, and while winds will be less gusty than
today, they look to remain elevated enough to make for another
blustery afternoon.

The upper level trough has plunged south towards the coast as
anticipated, enveloping the entire ArkLaTex in a cold continental
airmass. This pattern shift will not be especially long-lived
pattern shift, however, and by Tuesday morning, the upper level
trough will already be pushing its way eastward, with just enough of
a grip remaining on the ArkLaTex to ensure that the region sees two
consecutive nights of near- or sub-freezing low temperatures, and
the best way to put it at this time is that sites which don`t quite
reach freezing tonight will do so tomorrow night, as lows range from
the middle 30s west to upper 20s east as the trough lifts east. The
departure of the trough and rebuilding of a ridge in its wake will
make for a rapid warming trend, with highs making for the 60s on
Tuesday afternoon, 70s on Wednesday, and even 80s by Thursday and
Friday, while lows return to the 40s and 50s. The ridging
responsible for this warming will make way for a deepening trough by
the end of this extended forecast period, which looks to bring the
next rainfall chances to the region going into next weekend.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

For the 10/00Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs will continue through the
period. Northerly surface winds will slacken below 10 kts after
10/21Z. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Spotter activation will not be needed through Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  54  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  33  51  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  50  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  52  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  28  49  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  32  54  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  31  54  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  33  57  33  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     OKZ077.

TX...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...16