165
FXUS64 KSHV 221936 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
236 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

 - Dangerous heat this afternoon will give way to slightly cooler
   temperatures Thursday and Friday as cloud cover increases and
   thickens with the westward approach of Bertha along the
   Southern Louisiana coast.

 - Some brief relief to the heat in the form of isolated to widely
   scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday
   and Friday afternoons, before dry conditions return this
   weekend through the remainder of the extended period.

 - Dangerous heat will return to the region Sunday through all of
   next week as the upper level ridge expands and amplifies back
   over the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The latest visible satellite imagery indicates a wrap-around cu
field developing/expanding SW around the outer periphery of TS
Bertha across Srn AR/much of N LA/extreme Ern TX as of midday. In
fact, the vis imagery and sfc obs/mosaic radar indicate that the
low level center will be moving ashore Eastern St. Benard Parish
shortly. Drier air continues to ingest into this system, with the
bulk of the convection well displaced to the SW of the center.
This system is allowing a weak sfc front to slip S through the
region early this afternoon, with the latest sfc-theta-e analysis
depicting the leading edge of a noticeably drier air mass across
the Nrn fringes of the region, over extreme SE OK into the Nrn
sections of SW AR. Ahead of this bndry, compressional warming and
sfc moisture pooling is quite evident in the sfc obs, especially
in VC of the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA. 18Z temps were are
already nearing the century mark across the more cloud free areas,
with dewpoints having risen to near/in excess of 80 degrees.
Thus, heat indices have already soared well in excess of 110
degrees as of late morning, and continue to rise as diurnal
heating continues, possibly maxing out near 120 degrees in some
areas! Dewpoints should begin to mix down as a wedge of drier air
over Srn AR begins to backdoor SW into portions of NW LA/NE TX
later this afternoon/evening. The vis imagery also suggests towers
beginning to build over the Lower Toledo Bend Country, but any
convection that develops later this afternoon should exit into SW
LA/SE TX and thus, will keep a dry forecast going through tonight.

With Bertha remaining near or wobbling just inland of the S LA
coast through the next 24-30 hrs, as well as the increasing shear
this system will exhibit, a continued weakening trend is expected,
although the short term progs suggest that a deepening axis of
H925-850 moisture along the attendant SW to NE oriented inverted
trough axis will quickly spread WNW as early as this evening,
while deepening overnight/Thursday morning. Despite the dry air
advection later today/tonight, the increased cloud cover will keep
abnormally warm temps in place overnight, but may be a saving
grace Thursday as these cigs may hold tough across the region
through much of the day. In fact, daytime temps may struggle to
reach the mid 90s by afternoon, and will be largely dependent how
long these lower cigs will linger before gradually lifting. The
short term and hi-res progs also suggest that isolated to widely
scattered convection will be possible near and just NW of the
inverted H925-850 trough, mainly from Deep E TX into N LA/SCntrl
AR. Did expand upon the lower/more conservative NBM pops to the
NW, with any convection diminishing by mid-evening. Despite
dewpoints climbing again through the day Thursday with the
advection of higher theta-e air from the E, and uncertainty of how
high max temps will reach under the thick wrap-around stratocu
field, have held off on any heat headlines with this forecast
issuance, but should any be needed, would be over portions of E TX
where confidence is higher for hotter temps. But in the least,
the tightening pressure gradient should yield a decent Mother
Nature`s blow dryer especially in the Wrn areas where insolation
is highest.

While upper ridging will expand back SE into the Lower MS Valley
Thursday night, thus steering Bertha`s remnants W into the TX
coast, the low level flow regime will return out of the S across
our region, which will maintain the very humid conditions across
the area. Breaks in the cloud cover should also result in strong
insolation, although most locales should remain in the mid 90s.
Evenso, the pressure gradient should remain tight enough to
maintain a Srly breeze which may take a slight edge off of the
heat, with heat indices marginal for an Advisory, if needed at
all. Unfortunately, this reprieve from the heat will be brief, as
flat ridging at the sfc and aloft will reassert itself over the
Lower MS Valley this weekend, contributing to hotter temps this
weekend. More amplified ridging aloft over the Cntrl Plains will
begin to expand back SE into the Ozarks Saturday, allowing the
remnants of a weak shear axis to slide S into the region Saturday
afternoon. Unfortunately, the end result may only be an increase
in elevated cigs over Srn AR/N LA, before the ridging expands
farther SE into the region Sunday, persisting through the
remainder of the extended period. Thus, a return in the dangerous
heat is expected by Sunday and especially Monday, with the need
for additional heat headlines likely by that time.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, N/NE winds and VFR conditions
expected to prevail areawide throughout the period. SCTVBKN
clouds currently across portions of our eastern terminals will
scatter and lift this afternoon. Otherwise, expect mostly clear
skies and wind speeds of 7-13G20KTS to continue. Wind gusts will
relax overnight and MVFR cigs return 12Z to 17Z for most. /24/BOO/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  94  77  94 /   0  20  20  10
MLU  78  94  77  95 /  10  30  20  20
DEQ  72  93  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  77  96  77  96 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  74  92  74  94 /   0  20  20  20
TYR  77  97  78  95 /   0  10  10  10
GGG  76  96  78  95 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  79  94  77  94 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ004-006.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>003-
     005-010>014-017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ124>126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24