964
FXUS64 KSHV 281717
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1217 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are continuing
   across our far east, northeast and northern zones today as a
   weak upper level trough continues to advance northward from the
   Ouachitas in Southeast Oklahoma to the Lower Miss Valley.

 - Weak upper ridging builds into the region from the west for the
   upcoming weekend and that should allow for temperatures to
   soar.

 - The strength of the upper ridge is uncertain as we move into
   the upcoming work week and that will keep at least small storm
   chances in the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A well defined shortwave trough or shear axis was observed this
afternoon across the Middle Red River Valley into the Lower Miss
Valley. Rainfall developed in the vicinity of this axis late last
night into the predawn hours this morning and given this also
coincides where our highest PWATs reside, when you add just a
little heating, you get scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms continuing across our far eastern, northeastern and
northern zones. This activity has shown a tendency to finally
begin lifting northward but will continue to be at least a minor
flood threat through the evening hours. This upper level trough is
fcst to move very slowly north and east through the day Friday
which should result in higher rain chances once again across our
far eastern and northeast zones, much like today but hopefully not
as widespread. Also cannot rule out at least isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms with this pattern as well, mainly across our
northern half. Much of this will be tied to daytime heating and
instability as deep layer shear is not what we would like to see
for more widespread severe convection.

Meanwhile in the wake of the upper trough, upstream ridging will
move our way out of the Texas Hill Country and this feature will
begin impeding into our region Friday Night and into the upcoming
weekend. This should result in high temperatures climbing into the
lower and middle 90s across most locations both Sat and Sun but
that doesn`t necessarily mean we are done with potentially
impactful severe weather. This ridge is what we refer to as a
dirty ridge as there will be pockets of ascent embedded in the
ridge, moving our way from the Tx Hill Country. That combined with
daytime heating and a potentially very unstable atmosphere would
be the key ingredients necessary for at least isolated to widely
scattered strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening
hours. Can`t rule out nocturnal convection as well, especially
across our northern and eastern most zones both Sat and Sun Nights
under this pattern.

As stated above in the Key Messages headline, the strength and
position of the upper level ridge as we begin the upcoming work
week is far from certain. While this feature does appear to be
stronger to start the week vs mid to late week next week, this
could obviously change. For now, the NBM is advertising at least
small rain chances each day next week and this is warranted given
the above mentioned uncertainties. A stronger early week ridge
continuing through the middle and end of next week would of
course result in lower rain chances and much higher temperatures
than what we are currently advertising.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

For the 28/18Z TAF period, a wide range of cig heights and weather
conditions span our airspace from west to east. VFR conditions are
in place across our East TX terminals with little more than fair wx
cumulus and some passing cirrus. Meanwhile, very active convection
continues at KELD and KMLU early this afternoon with MVFR/IFR cigs
to go along with the ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms in
our eastern airspace. In between, some altocu cigs around 10Kft are
noted at KSHV and KTXK along with dense cirrus above that. VCSH/VCTS
will be possible across our western sites through this afternoon and
early evening, but convection will largely remained confined to KELD
and KMLU during the afternoon/evening timeframe before diminishing
altogether closer to midnight as a trough begins to lift northward.
Some patchy low stratus will return by early Friday morning so MVFR
and IFR cigs will be possible along with patchy fog as winds become
light and variable through the remainder of the period.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

While widespread severe thunderstorms do not appear warranted
through tonight across the Four State Region, isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms which also may pose a flood threat cannot be
ruled out through tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  89  72  92 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  69  87  71  91 /  40  30  20  20
DEQ  65  86  68  90 /  30  20  20  20
TXK  67  89  70  93 /  30  20  20  20
ELD  66  85  68  90 /  40  30  20  20
TYR  69  91  73  92 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  69  90  72  92 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  69  92  72  93 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19