114
FXUS64 KSHV 161738
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1138 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - Weak cold front will continue backdooring into our region today
   before stalling tonight.

 - The front will do little to buck the trend of much above normal
   temperature this week.

 - Confidence has decreased on widespread severe weather and/or
   flooding impacts across our entire region later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Widespread low cloud cover across most of our region this morning
is taking it`s time scattering out. Some clearing was observed
across our far northern zones and this is due in part to a weak
frontal boundary that will continue trying to backdoor itself
south and southwest into our region through tonight. Not a lot of
push with this feature but I would not be surprised to see it
drift south to near or just south of the I-20 Corridor by tonight
before it stalls and actually begins returning back northward as
a warm front during the day Monday into Monday Night. This feature
may help to offset temperatures ever so slightly tonight and
Monday but a majority of the region will remain in this
unseasonably, near record breaking warmth through at least
Wednesday and maybe into Thursday if trends continue with our next
trough.

Speaking of our next trough...a lot has changed with deterministic
progs over the last 24 hours so I`m not quite ready to call it a
trend but lets just say my confidence is not quite as strong in
this trough becoming a widespread, impactful storm system later
this week. It now appears that the upper trough we`ve been
talking about for several days now may end up coming out in
pieces instead of one large punch and this is due in part to a
number of reasons. First of all, the trough continues to slow down
across the southwest Great Basin with some progs still having a
bulk of the upper level support for this system locked up across
the Four Corners Region of the Country as late as Wed Night and
even into Thursday. This is quite a shift from yesterday`s progs
as there was descent run to run and prog to prog consistency with
the trough axis at least beginning to enter the Texas Hill
Country by Thursday. Secondly, the upper ridge that will move
across our region on Tuesday is much more strongly amplified and
does not appear to flatten out as much across the Tenn/Lower Miss
Valley as was suggested in earlier progs. Finally, another
vigorous trough quickly comes on shore the Pacific Northwest and
appears to become absorbed into the Great Basin trough which
further holds it back and in turn, allows energy associated with
the trough to come out in pieces. This would result in ejecting
energy across the Plains later this week being much further
northwest of our region in the Wed-Fri timeframe. Having said
that, there still is quite a bit of PVA associated with this
disturbance moving rapidly our way Thu/Thu Night but the trough
itself does not appear to be nearly as amplified as it did
earlier.

So for now, the key messages are this: 1)...there is still a
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms impacting our region
sometime later this week (most likely in the Thu/Thu Night
timeframe) but confidence has really wained on this compared to
this time yesterday. 2). If a less amplified trough becomes a
trend and not just an anomaly in the progs, then that would
result in much less rainfall across our region in the Wed-Fri
timeframe than we have been suggesting over the last couple days.

Needless to say, we will continue to fine tune this forecast as
we go through the upcoming work week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Ceilings are slow to improve at the beginning of this period.
Models are still suggesting that clouds will continue to lift and
scatter a bit through the afternoon but will likely not clear out
entirely before more clouds move in early tomorrow morning. A slow
moving boundary will shift winds to be easterly as it moves to the
southeast today. Winds will stay somewhat elevated overnight for
many sites, but lower winds and fog development will likely be a
concern for our southeast zones and KLFK around daybreak tomorrow.
Low ceilings around the region should clear within a few hours,
but could hang around longer as they have so far today. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  66  83  67 /   0  10  10  10
MLU  83  62  83  63 /   0  10  10   0
DEQ  78  56  78  64 /   0  10  10  20
TXK  82  63  81  68 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  79  58  80  62 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  84  65  83  68 /   0  10   0  10
GGG  84  64  83  65 /   0  10  10  10
LFK  85  64  84  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...57