484
FXUS64 KSHV 202329
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
629 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

 - Showers and thunderstorms will develop and intensify across
   southern Arkansas and adjacent areas of Oklahoma, northeast
   Texas and northern Louisiana this evening. Some storms may be
   capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

 - A Heat Advisory will continue areawide overnight and through
   tomorrow evening for high temperatures near or in excess of
   100 degrees with heat indices up to 109 will continue
   throughout the week ahead. a Heat Advisory remains in effect,
   with extensions likely.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on a near-
   daily basis through the remainder of the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

As of this Thursday afternoon writing, the prominent upper level
ridging responsible for our heat dome of late has retrograded as
scheduled, retreating to the Four Corners Region and releasing the
eastern ArkLaTex from its grasp. Over the next several hours,
the northwest flow finding its way over the Ozarks and across
Arkansas from northwest to southeast will work to swing a boundary
in from the north, the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms.

The latest high resolution guidance suggests impacts near and north
of the I-30 corridor may begin late this afternoon into the early
evening, increasing in coverage and intensity towards sunset and
into the later evening hours. As previously advertised, if uplift
manages to break the cap, the strong to severe storms which may
result look to exhibit significant potential for downbursts
producing strong, damaging wind gusts. With the lunchtime update,
the SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) south and
west, extending from McCurtain County to just northeast of the
Shreveport-Bossier metro, and east to areas south of Monroe. A
Slight Risk has been added, which does not include our CWA as of
this writing, but is positioned just northeast of Union County,
Arkansas.

Today`s heat products will continue as scheduled through this
evening, followed by an areawide continuation of the Heat Advisory
overnight and through Friday evening. Much like at this time
yesterday, afternoon dewpoints at our warmest sites still look to
fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s by early afternoon, causing
heat indices remaining largely within Advisory criteria. Any heat
indices of 110 or greater will be isolated and short-lived enough to
not merit further upgrading at this time. If this changes in
subsequent model runs, a decision will be made with tonight`s
forecast package. An additional variable in play tomorrow will be
continuing chances for showers and storms and associated cloud
cover, which may serve to noticeably limit runaway heating.

This evening`s surface boundary will push south, but exactly how far
it reaches will be a determining factor in how tomorrow unfolds.
With the same northwest flow in play, the boundary looks to kick up
renewed showers and storms across the southern half of the ArkLaTex
tomorrow afternoon and evening. From there, this unsettled pattern
continues with scattered showers and storms possible again Saturday,
potentially drier conditions Sunday, and further daily rounds of
showers and storms into next week. Upper 90s and lower triple digits
look to continue throughout, though the presence of continued
rainfall and cloud cover may start to make a dent in this prolonged
heat wave.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

For the 21/00z TAF update...Watching two areas of convection this
evening. The first is moving through southeast Oklahoma and
southwest Arkansas, with the second area moving from southeast
Arkansas into northeast Louisiana. Have maintained mention of
VCTS for KELD, KTXK, and KMLU through around 21/03z and then
picked it for the KTYR, KSHV and KGGG from 21/03z till around
21/06z. While I can`t rule it out, I don`t have enough confidence
to mention that any of this convection will directly impact a
terminal, but should it, I will update using an AMD. Aside from
any brief reduction of flight conditions during any potential
storms, VFR conditions will prevail throughout this period.
Another area of some lower confidence is in regards to wind, while
standard winds should remain below 10kt, once these storms start
to send some outflow boundaries, some terminals may become gusty
at times. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening,
continuing overnight, for southern Arkansas and adjacent areas of
Oklahoma, northeast Texas and northern Louisiana for
thunderstorms that may produce damaging wind gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 102  77 102 /  30  20  30  10
MLU  76 102  74 102 /  20  20  20  10
DEQ  71 101  70 100 /  40  20  30  30
TXK  76 100  75 101 /  40  10  30  20
ELD  75 101  73 101 /  40  10  10  20
TYR  80 102  79 104 /  20  20  30  10
GGG  79 102  77 105 /  20  20  30  10
LFK  77 102  77 103 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>072.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>072.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for ARZ073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077.

TX...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096-097-108>112.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for TXZ124>126-136>138-
     149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...33