406
FXUS64 KSHV 122330 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
630 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

 - A prolonged stretch of temperatures in the upper 80`s and low
   90`s will continue into the new week.

 - High pressure overhead will keep the region dry until a shift
   in the pattern by the end of the week.

 - Rain prospects are returning to the forecast as the ridge
   breaks down.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

High pressure remains locked in overhead, keeping the region dry
and warm to finish the weekend. Compared to 24 hours ago, no real
change is present as temperatures are nearly identical, if not a
degree or two warmer. At the same time, dew points below 60 deg F
continue to provide a form of comfort to the return of the upper
80`s and low 90`s. This pattern will carry us into the new week
with little to no change expected through the middle of the period
as the center of ridge will be parked directly overhead Tuesday
and Wednesday.

By the back half of the forecast and to end the week, a pattern
change aloft will look to increase local rain chances by the start
of the weekend. Long-wave troughing across the Rockies will start
to break down and displace the ridge by Thursday, with the
deterministic guidance hinting as a cold front moving into the
region sometime in a window between late Friday night and Saturday
afternoon. Compared to yesterday, the progression looks to be a
tad slower, with the arrival of any FROPA being closer to the late
stages of the aforementioned window. For now, this will be
something to monitor as the return of rain would be a welcomed
site to many.

53

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the 13/00Z TAF period. Some
elevated cu may linger this evening/overnight near the low level
ridge center over portions of E TX/Wrn LA/SW AR, as some thin
cirrus spreads SE and gradually diminishes. Another scattered cu
field should develop over much of the area by late morning/midday
Monday, as periods of thin cirrus spreads ESE across the Nrn half
of the region. The cu field should diminish during the early
evening, although cirrus cigs will gradually increase from the
WNW. Lt/Vrb winds tonight will become SSE around 5kts over E TX,
but remain VRB across SW AR/N LA. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  91  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  59  87  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  56  87  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  63  90  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  61  91  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  61  90  60  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15