734
FXUS64 KSHV 190539
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1239 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

 - Persistence continues to be the rule of thumb with this
   forecast with the key messaging surrounding the upcoming heat
   wave.

 - Upper ridging will continue building in from the northwest as
   we begin the upcoming work week which will only allow for even
   hotter temperatures with near triple digit temperatures likely
   across most of the area if not Tue then especially on Wed.

 - We continue to hold off on any kind of Heat Advisories for
   Sunday but this may become difficult for at least the eastern
   and northern half of our region on Monday and more areawide for
   Tue into Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Upper ridging this late hour in the evening appears to be anchored
across Deep S TX towards the upper SE TX coast and into portions
of N LA with this feature expected to move very little over the
next 24 to 36 hours. Much drier air in association with this
feature in the form of drier PWATS, which our region saw a
glimpse up today, should be more apparent across our region on
Sunday and into Monday, especially across our southwest half. The
problem with this is as we see maybe a little more in the way of
lower afternoon humidity the next couple days, ambient
temperatures will only get a little hotter and thus, maximum heat
indices are a wash so to speak. All this to say that we will see
pockets of 105+ degrees maximum heat indices on Sunday, especially
across our eastern and northern zones but pockets become more
widespread across our east and northern zones by the time we get
into Monday. Thus, we have held off on any kind of Heat Advisory
until possibly Monday.

As the forecast pivots into Tuesday and especially Wednesday, an
Intermountain West upper ridge will continue building south and
east, into the Southern Plains and especially the Upper and Middle
Red River Valley. By Tuesday, we are easily seeing 850mb temps
north of 24 Deg/C across much of our region with pockets of 26
Deg/C across our northwest half and values perhaps approaching 27
to 28 Deg/C across our northwest half by Wednesday. All this to
say, triple digit heat is poised to impact most of if not all our
region on Tue and if not Tue, definitely by Wednesday of this
upcoming work week. Ambient temperatures of this magnitude
combined with afternoon humidity has virtually all of our region
exceeding 105 degrees by Wed and dangerously close to reaching
Extreme Heat Warning criteria of widespread 110+ degree heat
indices across at least our eastern half Wed Aftn.

Beyond Wednesday, the forecast could get a little more
interesting, depending on what an area of low pressure across the
NE Gulf begins to do. There has been descent consensus between
latest model ensemble members of this cutoff trough beginning to
exhibit tropical like characteristics over the next 24 to 48 hours
with the feature moving slowly northwestward or westward, parallel
to the N Gulf Coast. Our upper ridge by Wed into Thu is still
firmly anchored across the Middle Red River Valley during this
timeframe so a northwestward turn potentially impacting our region
seems very unlikely. A more west to west southwest moving system
by the early and middle part of the work week could result in an
east to southeasterly wind field across at least our southern most
zones which could help to offset our heat slightly. Otherwise, a
continuation of heat products appear likely to continue through
the end of the upcoming work week. Lots of time to diagnose these
possibilities but the key message across our region should
continue to be the upcoming heat wave and its potential major to
Extreme Heat Risk Impacts this week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For the 19/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout this forecast period, with SCT to BKN clouds overnight,
some brief MVFR CIGs possible at our east Texas terminals just
after daybreak, and fair wx Cu to follow across area airspace into
the afternoon, scattering out after evening. Light winds
overnight will adopt a southwesterly to westerly trajectory after
daybreak, at maximum sustained speeds of no more than 5 to 10 kts,
returning to southerly as speeds drop back off into the overnight
hours.

/26/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  97  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  94  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  98  79 101  78 /   0  10   0   0
ELD  95  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  77  96  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26