283
FXUS64 KSHV 070556
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1256 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

 - Showers and thunderstorms again possible on Sunday. Those with
   outdoor activities scheduled should plan accordingly.
   Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

 - Periods of locally heavy rainfall on Sunday will bring a
   localized flooding threat across some areas. Remember, turn
   around, don`t drown!

 - Peak afternoon heat index values by the middle of next week may
   approach 105 degrees. Summertime heat safety plans should be
   reviewed and readied.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

An upper-low centered across the Texas Panhandle has been the
main driver for convection across the region this evening. With
the loss of diurnal heating, overall convective intensity is
expected to diminish. However, lingering showers and thunderstorms
may remain possible through much of the overnight hours due to an
overall unstable atmosphere rich in gulf moisture remaining in
place.

The upper-low will move northeast on Sunday with low-level
moisture advection continuing. Could see convection redeveloping
along and south of I-20 as early as mid-morning, increasing in
coverage throughout the afternoon. A few strong storms may be
possible north of I-30 during the afternoon and evening.

In the wake of the departing upper-low, an upper-level ridge in
the Gulf of America is forecast to build north across the ArkLaTex
and remain firmly established through much of the the workweek.
Subsidence associated with the ridge will allow for mainly dry
conditions and afternoon high temperatures in the mid 90s from
Wednesday onward. Afternoon heat index values approaching 105
degrees may also be a concern nearly areawide each day.

A weak frontal boundary to drift south across the region late in
the work-week providing enough low-level instability to generate
a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms beneath the prevailing
upper-ridge on Friday. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For the 07/06z TAFs, strong to severe convection persists across
Northeast Texas just south of the I-30 corridor with additional
storms to the southwest in and south of the DFW Metroplex. High
resolution model guidance suggests this activity should gradually
dissipate early in the period, but this is uncertain. KTXK could
be affected by 07/09z, but will continue to monitor. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near 07/12z
and spread east across the region, likely affecting all TAF sites
before exiting the area to the north late in the period. MVFR/IFR
ceilings should develop before sunrise in most locations with a
slow improvement expected after daybreak.

Nuttall

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight but may be
needed on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  92  76  94 /  10  10   0   0
MLU  76  92  75  94 /  20  30   0   0
DEQ  72  90  75  92 /  40  10   0   0
TXK  75  94  76  96 /  30  10   0   0
ELD  74  91  75  93 /  20  20   0   0
TYR  75  93  75  94 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  75  93  75  94 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  75  92  74  94 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...09