466
FXUS64 KSHV 312225
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
525 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

 - Dry conditions to continue through today as an upper-ridge
   migrates east across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

 - Rain chances to increase south of I-20 and across portions of
   Deep East Texas through midweek with Potential Tropical Cyclone
   5.

 - Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible
   through the weekend with a weak disturbance to the south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

For the final day in August, hot and dry conditions to prevail
across the region with temperatures to approach triple digits
across portions of east and northeast Texas. Heat index values
this afternoon will climb to near 105 degrees across much of the
region.

Moving into September, the pattern begins to shift, allowing for
temperatures to slip a little further from the triple digit mark
as the upper-level heat ridge over the central CONUS moves east
into the Appalachians. The departing ridge will allow for a weak
tropical disturbance in the north central Gulf of America to swing
northwest into southeast Texas bringing increased rain chances to
to the lakes region of Deep East Texas and portions of west-
central Louisiana from Tuesday into Wednesday. The track forecast
for this disturbance places the disturbance across east-central
Texas by midweek which could be ideal for producing much needed
rainfall to the already drought stricken ArkLaTex, but could be
problematic if a heavy rain threat materializes. At this time no
such widespread heavy rainfall signal exists but will continue to
prudently monitor trends for any signs of this type of threat
manifesting in later model cycles.

A broad inverted trough to retrograde west across the Gulf of
America late in the workweek, undercutting the upper-ridge across
the east coast. This trough will provide enough instability and
mixing to limit afternoon highs to the mid to upper 90s through
the weekend. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms
could be possible each afternoon. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Cu field will slowly dissipate this evening across most of our
airspace, even through we still may keep an elevated cu field in
the vicinity of our developing system across the northern Gulf,
perhaps impacting our southern airspace. As we go through the day
Tuesday, expect a growing cu field once again across our entire
airspace. Conditions should remain VFR through the day, expect for
the possibility of scattered thunderstorm impacts in the vicinity
of the LFK terminal from near midday through the end of the TAF
period. Attm, do not believe we will get VCTS as far north as the
I-20 Corridor in NE TX and N LA but it will be close. Also added
some E to ESE wind gusts to the LFK, TYR, GGG and SHV terminals
during the afternoon hours given the increasing pressure gradient.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  97  74  95 /   0  10   0  30
MLU  76  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  99  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  76  98  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  74  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  77 100  75  94 /   0  10  20  50
GGG  75 100  74  96 /   0  10  20  50
LFK  75  95  74  93 /   0  70  60  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13