315
FXUS64 KSHV 281636
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1136 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

 - One last hot day for most of us today with some low end triple
   digit heat index values west of I-49 and south of I-30.

 - Hot and humid air will crop us afternoon thunderstorms just
   about anywhere with a hearty upper disturbance in the NW flow
   flow bringing inches down I-49 overnight and through Friday.

 - Weekend starts to slack heavy amounts, but takes quite some
   time as the NE winds work in under the upper level fronts at
   H850 and H700 into Sunday. Labor Day looks nice with sunshine.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A mix of sun and clouds again today and with SW winds perhaps
many more low to mid 90s across the ArkLaTex. The morning will be
mild to warm with the hot afternoon popping showers and
thunderstorms areawide. The SPC has a Marginal Risk north of I-20
due to the upstream MCS outflow merging along the front for the
risk of damaging winds primarily. We could see some hail possible
as heights fall and atmosphere drops the freezing level with the
parent MCS arriving Thursday evening. And while tornadoes occur in
all months, backing SW winds to SE and then E with speeds dropping
off will greatly limit most of this threat. The SPC day 2 has the
Marginal Risk for damaging winds still over southern tier of
Counties and Parishes.

The WPC has a larger area for us in their ERO today with a Slight
down across I-20, fading to areawide Marginal for Friday. The
chance for minor flooding will be possible with some of these
nocturnal training thunderstorms and into early Friday as the
rain continues to pile in for us and our low water everywhere.
However, but much of this organized thunderstorm activity looks
to be fairly progressive, precluding anything widespread with a
watch at this time. The ground will run off faster than sinking in
as dry as we have become in these dog days. The skies will remain
gray into the weekend with still loads of moisture pooling on the
upper level fronts. The best news along with the needed rainfall
is that we will see the hot temps take a nice vacation until
seasonal highs return by Tuesday. Lows will be below average
through much of next week, despite the warm sunshine into early
September. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Rapidly forming MVFR CU field across NE TX and N LA in the wake of
a returning warm front will continue lifting to low VFR heights
and scattering out as the day goes on. We will await convection
currently across Southeast Oklahoma and Central Arkansas to begin
rapidly accelerating southward later this afternoon and especially
into the evening and overnight hours, impacting most if not all
our airspace and terminals as it does. Look for strong
thunderstorm wind gusts as these storms progress through these
terminals through the evening and overnight hours. Front will
eventually backdoor into our airspace from the northeast, allowing
for a wind shift across most terminals through this TAF period
with MVFR and IFR ceilings likely in the wake of the backdooring
cold front. Post frontal convection will also be likely overnight
through the end of the TAF period as well and have made note of
this towards the tail end of our 24hr TAF package as well.

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through tonight
for the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms and flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  85  73 /  50  70  90  70
MLU  93  70  81  69 /  70  80  90  70
DEQ  83  66  77  66 /  80  90  80  30
TXK  91  69  81  69 /  70  80  90  50
ELD  88  65  78  66 /  70  80  90  50
TYR  93  75  89  72 /  30  50  70  60
GGG  94  73  87  70 /  40  60  90  60
LFK  94  75  91  73 /  20  30  70  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13