797
FXUS64 KSHV 141122
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
622 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

 - The last full week of summer will feel more like the middle of
   summer with mid and upper 90s to lower 100s each day, extending
   heat advisory headlines through at least mid-week.

 - Although rain chances aren`t zero, the majority of the region
   will remain dry throughout the week with only slightly better
   rain chances across our eastern zones later this afternoon.

 - The upper-level ridge is expected to weaken by next weekend as
   an upper low drifts westward over the northern Gulf, providing
   our next best chance of rain by next Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The heat marches on this week in what is hopefully summer`s last
gasp after an extended stretch of above average warmth during the
latter half of the summer season. The culprit, a nearly permanent
upper ridge, has barely deviated from its default position across
the southern half of the U.S. over the past few months. The ridge
axis will shift very little throughout this week, deflecting the
majority of convection away from our region. The one exception is
today with a more active sea-breeze influence on the back side of
the ridge as it becomes centered to our east. The resulting push
of southerly flow will aid in convection across mainly our eastern
zones so have reflected this with low to mid chance PoPs generally
along and east of the I-49 corridor this afternoon into the early
evening hours. As with most thunderstorms in this hot environment,
can`t rule out a stray storm becoming severe with a downburst wind
threat. Otherwise, expect another hot and humid day with afternoon
high temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to lower 100s.

Beyond today, persistence will carry the day in terms of the heat
advisory headlines likely being extended beyond Tuesday with very
little day-to-day fluctuation in temperatures through the end of
the week. Heat safety precautions should continue to be carefully
implemented this week with all outdoor activities and especially
youth sports. The dangerous heat risk will only further escalate
through mid-week and likely beyond that into late week when high
school football games are scheduled.

If you`re wondering when changes may be finally coming our way,
model trends do continue to favor a break in this heat by late
next weekend as an upper low shifts west over the northern Gulf.
This low should help to undercut the ridge farther east over the
Carolinas while also providing our next chance of rainfall. For
now, it appears the first half of next will remain dry for most of
us with Sunday showing better promise for rain chances across much
of the region. Additional rain chances and cooler temperatures do
look to be in play beyond that as we look to the first day of fall
on September 22nd with great anticipation.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

For the 14/12z TAF update...VFR conditions prevail across the
region despite some earlier indication that some MVFR CIGs could
develop this morning. Still think we are in that sweet spot for
some lower clouds, but probabilities are decreasing some, so I
have increased the lower cloud limits at KLFK. Aside from this, CU
field will bring SCT to FEW at around 4-5k feet this afternoon
along with the chance for some very isolated convection. As has
been the case, I don`t foresee any thunderstorms moving directly
over any terminal, but I have maintained mention of VCTS for KSHV,
KMLU, KTXK, and KELD for this afternoon. Winds should remain light
throughout this TAF period, with the exception of any stronger
winds from thunderstorms that do develop. /33/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  99  77  98  77 /  20  10   0   0
MLU 100  75  99  76 /  40  20  10   0
DEQ  99  72  99  72 /  20  10   0   0
TXK  99  76  99  76 /  20  10  10   0
ELD 100  73  99  74 /  30  20  10   0
TYR  98  75  98  75 /   0  10   0   0
GGG 100  74 100  75 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  96  74  95  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33