592
FXUS64 KSHV 130009
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
709 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

 - Remnant sfc trough will linger over the region today along the
   eastern periphery of the ridge axis. This will serve as a
   trigger for isolated convection through the early evening hours.

 - Heat headlines have returned and will remain across the Four-
   State Region, as upper ridging expands back across the area
   through the weekend.

 - Intense heat will persist throughout much of next week as upper
   ridging settles over the region. More heat headlines are
   possible along with increased wildfire concerns. However, we
   could see a pattern shift by the end of week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Upper ridging has started to build back into the area today, which
has yielded dry conditions so far. However, a remnant sfc trough
lingers along the northern and eastern periphery of the building
ridge axis. This has served as a trigger for some isolated
convection north and east of our forecast zones. Some of this
convection may hold together and move into portions of the area as
it continues to slowly push southward this afternoon into the
early evening hours. Also, there could be enough weakness under
the ridge for some isolated convection to develop across the
region during peak heating. So, decided to add slight chances POPS
areawide through the early evening hours, when most of the
convection should diminish. There is a Marginal Risk for severe
weather across our SE Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas zones with
this convection. Damaging winds are the primary threat, along with
some small hail. Expect another quiet, mild, and humid night,
with lows in the low to mid 70s. Because of the building ridge, a
Heat Advisory was issued for the entire Four-State Region today.
That advisory has been expanded through Sunday evening, as the
ridge continues to gain a footing in the area. High`s on Sunday,
will climb back into the mid to upper 90s, with a few isolated
triple digit readings possible.

Upper ridging will become anchored across the region for a good
portion of next week. This should bring us much drier conditions,
although a stray isolated shower and thunderstorm can`t be ruled
out during peak heating. The drier conditions will likely keep
heat headlines across the region and cause some elevated fire
weather concerns. By the end of next week, long-term models
suggest we could see a pattern change, with the ridge sliding west
of the area. At the same time, the models also introduce some
activity in the northern Gulf. At the very least, this could
bring us some cooler conditions and much needed rainfall. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

For the 13/00Z TAF update, a round of VCTS/-TSRA continues to
proceed southward across the airspace, producing some isolated
chances of MVFR vis/cigs through 13/02Z before diminishing with
the loss of daytime heating. Surface winds will slacken to VRB
through 13/15Z before returning from a southerly direction through
the end of the period. Another round of VCTS convection is
expected to redevelop across the entire airspace after 13/20Z
through the end of the period. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Spotter activation is not expected, but a few strong to severe
storms cannot be ruled out across parts of Southeast Oklahoma and
Southwest Arkansas through the early evening hours.  /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  99  77  99 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  75  99  75  99 /  20  20  20  10
DEQ  70  99  71  98 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  75  99  75  98 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  73  99  73 100 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  76  98  75  99 /  20  20  20   0
GGG  75 100  75  99 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  75  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...16