113
FXUS64 KSJT 201713
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country this
  afternoon.

- Hot and dry weather will persist through at least the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

No changes needed to the short term forecast. A heat advisory
is once again in effect for the Big Country where afternoon highs
will range from 104 to 108 degrees. Elsewhere across west central
Texas, expect highs in the upper 90s to near 104 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Hot and above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend
and well into next week for our area. Our dominant weather feature
will be a large upper high, which will move from the Four Corners
area to the Texas/New Mexico border during the weekend. Still have
differences among the models on the possibility of a few showers and
thunderstorms Friday evening and Saturday evening in portions of the
eastern Big Country and Heartland areas. One of the medium range
models has the high stronger and positioned closer to our area,
thereby suppressing convective development. The other has a couple
of embedded weak disturbances moving south around the eastern
periphery of the aforementioned high, with implications for the
development of a few showers and storms. Blended model solution
keeps PoPs below 15 percent at this time. But this is something we
are monitoring and will assess the incoming data from hi-res
models as well. If thunderstorms occur, the environment will be
supportive of strong, gusty winds given the large dewpoint
depressions. Lightning would be a hazard as well.

Sunday into next week will be dry and hot with above normal
temperatures and highs above 100 degrees for much of our area. With
some further strengthening of the 850mb thermal ridge in our area,
expect afternoon highs to be 104-107 across the Concho Valley, and
105-110 degrees across the Big Country. Thus anticipate that Heat
Advisories will be needed for an expanded part of our area. At
this time, it looks like the daily record highs August 24-25 have
the best chance of being broken at Abilene and San Angelo. August
24 record highs are 103 at Abilene and 105 at San Angelo. August
25 record highs are 105 at both Abilene and San Angelo.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions with generally south to southeasterly winds of
5-10KT are expected for the next 24 hours. Some occasional gusts
over 15KT could occur this afternoon through 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     79 104  80 105 /   0   0  10  10
San Angelo  75 103  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    74 102  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   75 104  76 104 /   0  10  10  10
Sweetwater  78 105  78 105 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       74 102  75 102 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Callahan-Fisher-
Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels-
San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...SK