605
FXUS64 KSJT 011749
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer weather is expected this week. Rain chances
  return by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Isolated to scattered showers are expected today mainly the
southern portions of the Concho Valley, Heartland, and southern
counties. There remains a slight to marginal risks for excessive
rainfall south of I-20 today, with the slight risk main along the
I-10 corridor. Some storms to do develop today, will bring the
potential for localize heavy rainfall and flooding mainly across
our southern counties today. Therefor the Flood Watch remains in
affect south of the Big Country through mid morning today. High
temperatures today will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s, with
overnight lows falling into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2025

Rain chances will be much lower for the mid to late week timeframe
as a drier airmass moves into west central Texas on Tuesday.
Temperatures look to be near seasonal norms (low 90s) for Tuesday
and Wednesday. However, stronger thermal ridging looks to set up
for Thursday and Friday and should lead to highs in the upper 90s
both days.

Going into the weekend, models are in good agreement in showing an
upper-level trough centered just north of the Great Lakes will dip
southward into the central and eastern US. Another surface front
looks to drop into Texas from the northeast on Saturday and stall.
Global models diverge somewhat regarding how far south the front
will go and the overall rain chances. The GFS no longer shows a
tropical depression moving in from the east Pacific but still
remains much wetter than the European, which doesn`t bring the front
as far into Texas.  LREF probabilities show low (<25%) chances of
rainfall exceeding 1 inch in 24 hours Saturday through Sunday.  For
now, rain chances were kept to around 20% for Saturday and Sunday
with near-seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Mainly a VFR forecast the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog is
possible again early Tuesday morning primarily at KJCT and
KBBD, with some reductions to visibility through mid morning.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals
the next 24 hours, with light winds through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  64  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    64  92  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  67  94  65  95 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       64  91  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       66  89  66  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...24