893
FXUS64 KSJT 261103
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
603 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the beginning of
  next week.

- Low (15 to 30%) rain chances Saturday afternoon and evening,
  mainly across the northern half of the area.

- Medium (30-60%) chance for rain for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

An upper level ridge will remain centered across South Texas today
and tonight. This will result in the continuation of above normal
temperatures across the region. Highs this afternoon will be around
10 degrees above seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 90s. CAMs
indicate the development of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms by mid afternoon along a surface trough. This activity
is forecast to develop across western portions of the Concho Valley
and Big Country. Kept low (20-30%) rain chances in the forecast for
this afternoon and evening across western portions of the Concho
Valley and across the Big Country. A few strong storms cannot be
ruled out, with gust winds being the main concerns. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall is possible. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Some weak upper-level ridging will return across Texas for Sunday
into Monday ahead of the approach of the next system. Otherwise,
warm and humid conditions with southeasterly surface flow will
continue through Monday.  This will result in unseasonably warm high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with some low chances (<15%)
for brief light showers each afternoon.

A significant and long-awaited pattern shift appears to be likely
starting Tuesday.  Models are in fairly good agreement on an upper-
level trough moving out of California and into Texas on Tuesday and
Wednesday. At the surface a fairly strong Pacific-based cold front
will push southeastward into northwest Texas Wednesday through
Thursday. This could potentially bring more seasonal temperatures
into west central Texas for Wednesday and Thursday. However, the
forecast will hinge significantly on the strength of this front and
how far south this feature makes it into Texas. The latest ensemble
spread of high temperatures shows a range from the upper 70s to
around 90 degrees with a mean in the low 80s. The other uncertainty
is rainfall chances, timing and potentially amounts.  These will
depend heavily on the path of Hurricane Polo, which is currently
located just south of Baja California. Global models continue to
show good agreement on bringing Polo into northwest Mexico on
Tuesday. Assuming this scenario plays out Polo`s remnants would
merge with the aforementioned trough and cold front as they push
into Texas. Model blends currently show at least medium (40-60%)
chances for rain for late Tuesday through Thursday so confidence is
increasing on at least some rainfall for west central Texas.
However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty on where the heaviest
rain could occur. This would depend on the path of Polo`s remnants,
how much moisture there there is, and where the front stalls out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the next 24 hours.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening at KABI and KSJT. Continued the PROB30 groups for thunder at
both sites. Gusty winds and reduced visibilities are possible within
any thunderstorms. South winds will increase to 8 to 12 knots, with
some higher gusts, by late morning. Winds will drop below 10 knots
this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     96  73  98  74 /  20  20   0   0
San Angelo  95  70  97  71 /  20  20   0  10
Junction    95  69  97  70 /   0   0  20  20
Brownwood   95  70  97  71 /   0   0  10  10
Sweetwater  96  72  98  73 /  20  20   0   0
Ozona       93  69  95  70 /  10   0   0  10
Brady       94  69  95  71 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...Daniels