001
FXUS64 KSJT 301110
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain and flash flood potential for portions of the area
  mainly west of a Sonora to San Angelo to Sweetwater line this
  afternoon through Friday.

- Low to medium chance (20-60 percent) of showers and
  thunderstorms Monday afternoon and Monday night, followed by
  gusty northwest winds on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Widespread light showers continue across west-central Texas early
this morning as an upper level trough moves to the northeast
through Texas this morning through the rest of the day. We will
continue to see periods of showers, some of them heavy at times,
along with a few isolated thunderstorms. As was mentioned in the
previous discussion, the most likely time for heavy rainfall that
could result in flooding is expected to take place later this
morning, and could linger through midday. An area of stronger lift
can be seen in satellite data moving northeast out of northern
Mexico toward west Texas. CAMs are also latching onto this lift
and bringing in heavier rainfall between now and roughly Noon on
Friday. While the heaviest totals are expected across the Northern
Edwards Plateau into the southern Concho Valley, the entire west-
central Texas area is expected to see periods of showers into
this afternoon. Expect the showers and isolated storms to
gradually dissipate this afternoon into tonight. Highs today will
be cool with the ongoing rain and cloud cover, likely having a
hard time getting out of the 60s, and lows tonight are expected to
drop into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Isolated or widely scattered showers are possible on Saturday,
mainly in the morning, as a minor impulse aloft moves east-northeast
into Texas and the southern Plains. Temperatures will be warmer
Saturday (highs in the lower to mid 70s) but considerable cloud
cover is expected to persist, given the southerly low-level flow and
ample low-level moisture. The warming trend will continue Sunday as
a shortwave upper ridge moves east over Texas. May see some breaks
in the clouds in the afternoon, but skies overall are expected to
stay mostly cloudy. Expect highs to be the upper 70s to lower 80s in
our northern and central counties, and mid to upper 70s farther
south.

A strong system will affect our area early next week. A large scale
upper low and trough will enter the western CONUS Sunday, and
overspread the Rockies on Monday. A low is progged to develop in the
southern portion of this trough over northern New Mexico, and then
track across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Monday night.
Cold front associated with this system is forecast to move southeast
across our area in the Monday evening/Monday night time frame.
There is still uncertainty with the details in the eventual track of
the upper low. But appears at this time that the track of the upper
low and trough will be far enough south with sufficient moisture for
a band of showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front,
as it pushes across our area. The higher rain chances and better
coverage of convection look to be in our eastern and southeastern
counties.

Cooler air will follow this frontal passage and will be accompanied
by breezy northwest winds on Tuesday. After a warm day Monday with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, highs Tuesday will be in the
lower to mid 70s. May see some wrap around cloud cover over the
northeast part of our area on Tuesday, as moisture wraps around the
departing upper system. Dry weather to follow for Wednesday and
Thursday, as surface high pressure settles into Texas by Wednesday
and shifts to the east on Thursday. After the period of well-above
normal morning low temperatures our area has seen in the past
several days, will have a couple of cool nights Tuesday night and
Wednesday night with lows mostly in the 40s. The coolest night looks
to be Wednesday night when better radiational cooling could allow
for temperatures to dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s at some
locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

KJCT and KABI have improved to VFR, while most of the other area
sites are MVFR, and KBBD is actually LIFR. Another round of SHRA
is expected to move through the area this morning, with
precipitation gradually dissipating through the afternoon hours.
Models continue to indicate conditions remaining poor through
tonight. Will start most sites at MVFR, with conditions
deteriorating into IFR this afternoon, and potentially into LIFR
at most sites tonight, with mainly east winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  57  73  62 /  90  60  20   0
San Angelo  65  56  74  60 / 100  40  20   0
Junction    66  56  74  60 / 100  40  20   0
Brownwood   69  55  74  59 /  80  50  20   0
Sweetwater  63  57  71  61 / 100  50  10   0
Ozona       66  58  72  61 / 100  30  10  10
Brady       65  55  72  60 /  90  40  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Crockett-Irion-
Kimble-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...20