463
FXUS64 KSJT 061135
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
635 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Medium to high chances (40-70%) for showers and thunderstorms
  through Saturday night, with localized flash flooding possible.

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday,
  with large hail and damaging winds the main hazards.

- Hot and dry conditions return for much of next week and next
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Area of heavy showers and thunderstorms that produced rainfall
amounts of 2-6 inches last night over the Big Country have
mostly dissipated. However, new storms have developed across far
eastern portions of the Concho Valley down into the Heartland.
This all thanks to an upper level low spinning over the Trans
Pecos. High res guidance develops additional showers and
thunderstorms over the area this afternoon and evening. Hard to
pinpoint exactly where the axis of heaviest rainfall will develop
but given a signal in some of the ensemble data and CAMs for
another round of storms over the Big Country will go ahead and
issue a flash flood watch for this area through Sunday morning.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing 1-2 inch
rainfall amounts in a short amount of time given the high
moisture content levels. Also cannot rule out a few storms to
become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the
main hazards. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into
the overnight hours before coming to an end Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Upper-level ridging will begin to build back across the area
Sunday, settling over West Central Texas by mid-week and into next
weekend. Highs on Sunday will be near seasonal normals, in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, and increase into the 90s to low triple
digits for much of next week and into next Saturday. Overnight
lows are expected to remain in the 70s through next weekend. Some
models are showing some lower chances for showers and
thunderstorms Friday and Saturday next week. However, there is
quite a bit of uncertainty in the models, and with this far out in
the forecast we didn`t stray too far from the NBM which brought
low chances (10 to 20 percent) into the long term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
later this afternoon and evening. Confidence in timing and
coverage is low, but will maintain a PROB30 group at KABI and
KSJT. Otherwise, patchy MVFR/IFR stratus will burn off by the
late morning, with VFR conditions returning for the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  69  93  75 /  50  60  10   0
San Angelo  87  69  93  73 /  40  40   0   0
Junction    89  70  93  72 /  20  30   0   0
Brownwood   87  68  91  73 /  40  70  20   0
Sweetwater  86  68  95  73 /  60  40   0   0
Ozona       87  70  92  72 /  30  20   0   0
Brady       86  69  90  72 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Brown-Callahan-Coleman-
Haskell-Jones-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...42