442
FXUS64 KSJT 261116
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
616 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and
  tonight.

- Chances are increasing for our area to have a significant rain
  event Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

For today our area will be situated between an upper level ridge
to the east and an upper level trough over the Rockies. A shortwave
trough embedded in the southwest flow aloft will lift out of the
Big Bend and into our area this afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the higher terrain to
our west, with some of this activity then moving into our western
counties this evening. Highest rain chances are generally west of
an Abilene to San Angelo to Sonora line. Otherwise, expect partly
to mostly cloudy skies today with highs in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A few lingering showers are possible on Tuesday, mainly in our
eastern counties. Mostly cloudy skies will become partly cloudy, and
expect above normal afternoon highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Similar story for Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies becoming partly
cloudy. Temperatures will be a little warmer with highs 80-85
degrees.

Seeing indications for our area to have a more significant rain
event Thursday into Friday. A more substantial shortwave trough
is progged to move northeast across our area during that time, and
the remnants of what is currently tropical cyclone Vance (off the
west coast of Mexico) could get pulled northeast and incorporated
into this trough. Our area will have enhanced lift with a
southern stream upper level jet and divergence. With anomalously
high precipitable water values (for final week of October) progged
to be 1.4 to 1.6 inches, heavy rainfall will be possible.
Ensemble model guidance points to this as well, will need to
monitor the potential for flooding.

With the cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be cooler Thursday
and Friday. As confidence increases in this scenario unfolding,
anticipate that downward adjustments to current forecast highs will
be needed. At this time, looking like highs should be in the 70s
Thursday and mid 60s to mid 70s Friday. Lower rain chances will
continue into Saturday with the possibility of an additional
disturbance entering the area in southwest flow aloft. Mostly to
partly cloudy skies are expected over the weekend with a warming
trend in temperatures. Highs should be in the mid to upper 70s for
most of the area Saturday, and upper 70s to lower 80s for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Patchy stratus resulting in MVFR cigs will spread northward across
the area this morning mainly south of the I-20 corridor. Expect
VFR conditions to return by the late morning. Showers could
approach the western terminals this evening, but confidence in
coverage remains too low to include in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     79  61  81  63 /   0  30  30  10
San Angelo  78  58  81  59 /  30  40  20   0
Junction    79  58  81  59 /   0  10  20   0
Brownwood   79  59  80  59 /   0  20  20   0
Sweetwater  76  60  79  62 /  30  50  20   0
Ozona       73  58  77  59 /  50  40  10   0
Brady       78  59  79  60 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...42