641
FXUS64 KSJT 062310
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
610 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this
  afternoon across our Heartland (east-central) and southern
  counties.

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible on Monday in the
  southern part of our area.

- Hot and mostly dry conditions expected Tuesday into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Isolated to widely scattered showers have developed over the area
east of a Wingate to San Angelo to Sonora line early this afternoon.
With a destabilizing airmass, a few thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon as well. The main weather hazards are lightning and
localized gusty winds. This convection is occurring on the
southern periphery of an upper high, which is currently centered
over the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. With a moist airmass and
precipitable water values between 1.6 and 2 inches, brief locally
heavy rain is expected from these showers and storms. The
convection will dissipate this evening and skies will be clear to
partly cloudy tonight. Another warm and humid night is expected
with overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

By Monday the upper high will be centered over Oklahoma. On the
southern periphery of this high, a few showers and storms will be
possible in portions of our southern counties. Highs Monday will be
similar to today, ranging from the mid 90s in our southern counties,
to the upper 90s to 101 across the Big Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

On Tuesday the ridge aloft will strengthen over the Mid-South, and
become elongated east-west from the Carolinas across the southern
Plains and into the Southwest. The high will become refocused over
Arizona/New Mexico Thursday and Friday, and then is progged to shift
back east over Texas for the weekend. An uptick in temperatures is
expected in the mid-week into the weekend with some strengthening of
the 850mb thermal ridge. Daily highs are forecast to increase to 100-
104 degrees across the Big Country, and an increasing part of our
central counties will see triple digit highs. These forecast highs
will be within a few degrees of the daily record highs Wednesday
through Saturday (September 9-12).

By the early part of next week the high is forecast to become re-
centered over the southeastern CONUS. Forecast uncertainty is
increased Sunday into next week regarding rain chances in our area,
with different depictions in the medium range models. Temperatures
should back off at least a few degrees by that time, but look to
remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A few showers lingering across West Central Texas will dissipate
by sunset, with little effect on area terminals. Otherwise,
generally VFR conditions will continue along with with light south
to southeast winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76 100  78 100 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  72  97  73  98 /  10  10   0   0
Junction    70  95  71  97 /  10  20   0   0
Brownwood   72  98  73  99 /   0   0  10   0
Sweetwater  76 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       70  94  71  96 /   0  10   0   0
Brady       71  94  72  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07