424
FXUS64 KSJT 251805
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
105 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions into this weekend, with near to slightly above
  normal temperatures.

- Low rain chances return to the area early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Persistent south to southeasterly flow continues across West
Central Texas through tonight, becoming light by later this
evening and into the early morning hours Thursday. Continue to
expect warm and dry conditions over the next 24 hours. Most recent
CAMS are showing a few small isolated showers or thunderstorms
developing over the eastern portions of the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country this afternoon and early evening. Therefor,
we can not yet rule out any isolated shower or thunderstorm
development over our southeastern-most counties this afternoon
and early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Currently, we have a large trough over the western CONUS, with a
strong upper ridge over the eastern half of the U.S. However,
there is an upper level low working its way into the southeastern
U. S. this afternoon. This upper low will weaken the ridging over
the eastern states over the next few days. At the same time, the
upper trough over the western U. S. will weaken, eventually being
replaced by upper level ridging by Saturday night. This will keep
us near normal or slightly warmer through Sunday with little
chance for precipitation, other than sea breeze/outflow showers
that may remarkably reach as far northwest as Kimble/Mason/San
Saba counties during the late afternoon hours. Confidence is too
low in this possibility to include a mention in the forecast.

The upper level pattern becomes somewhat "muddled" early next
week, with upper level ridges centered east and west of us,
leaving west central Texas in a relative weakness. This could
allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in our
area, but as was mentioned previously, there is still quite a bit
of uncertainty associated with any precipitation chances. We will
continue to show a 20% to 30% chance for showers and
thunderstorms. While highs will still be warm, we may actually
cool a few degrees if we do fall within the weakness between upper
ridges.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Generally VFR conditions are expected today under breezy southerly
winds through this evening. KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD may see another
round of MVFR ceilings during the overnight and early morning
hours Thursday. Winds are expected to become generally light and
variable overnight into early Thursday morning as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  93  74  94 /  10  10   0  10
San Angelo  71  93  72  94 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    69  93  69  94 /   0  10   0   0
Brownwood   71  92  72  93 /   0  10   0   0
Sweetwater  73  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
Ozona       70  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       70  91  70  93 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...TP