Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 181802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
102 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...New AVIATION...

(Today and tonight)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

Today is starting off with a bang as overnight thunderstorms are
ongoing across West Central Texas. High-res models show this
organizing into a line and pushing eastward through the morning.
In it`s wake, a cold pool will be left behind across the area.
Clouds should gradually clear out through this afternoon and
evening. A few additional showers will be possible, but the main
upper-level dynamics will have pushed northeastward as they rotate
around an upper trough currently located over the Panhandle.
Temperatures this afternoon will be cloud-cover dependent, but in
general, will reach the mid 70s to mid 80s. Tonight, the upper
trough will remain in place, but dynamics will be much weaker,
allowing for much lower chances for showers and thunderstorms
overnight. Low temperatures will still be mild, only in the low to
mid 60s.


(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

An upper trough located over the Panhandle on Wednesday will see
multiple waves rotating around the base of it. This will help to
generate another round of showers and thunderstorms across the
region, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Some storms could
become strong to severe, but these should be few and far between
with extensive cloud cover across the area and SPC currently has a
Marginal Risk for this day. By Thursday, the upper trough will
push northeastward into Oklahoma and Kansas. This will shift the
focus of heavy rain across east Texas, although our far eastern
counties may still see some impacts from locally heavy rainfall.
Despite the system moving northeastward, the warm and humid
pattern is expected to persist for the rest of the week and into
the weekend as southeast flow continues at the surface. As we get
into the weekend, a much deeper trough will dig in across the
western US, while a 592dam ridge will build in over the southeast
US. Between these two features, moist southeast flow will continue
off of the Gulf of Mexico into West Central Texas. This will lead
to additional chances for diurnally-driven showers and
thunderstorms each day.


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving away from our last
two TAF sites early this afternoon. Expect mainly VFR conditions
to move in following these storms through the evening hours with
east to southeast winds around 10 knots. Tonight, models continue
to show IFR to low end MVFR ceilings moving in around 06Z or
shortly after, so have kept that trend going in the TAFs tonight.
Ceilings will begin to lift after 15Z tomorrow with VFR conditions
returning to most sites, but KBBD and KJCT will likely keep MVFR
conditions through the late morning.


Abilene  64  80  61  78 /  10  40  20  20
San Angelo  62  85  59  83 /   5  40  10  10
Junction  64  80  59  81 /  20  50  20  20
Brownwood  65  79  61  77 /  30  50  30  30
Sweetwater  62  81  60  80 /  10  30  20  10
Ozona       64  83  59  83 /  10  30   5   5




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