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000
FXUS64 KSJT 231129
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
629 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

A mix of MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue across the Northern Edwards
Plateau, Northwest Hill Country and Concho Valley through 12Z Wed
(although some areas may become VFR in the afternoon to early
evening hours, such as KSJT and KJCT, before falling back to
MVFR/IFR). Rain increasing across these areas 00Z to 06Z Wed and
continuing through 12Z Wed. Rain expanding into the Big Country
and Heartland 06Z to 12Z Wed, bringing patchy MVFR CIGs/VIS
(although KABI and KBBD stay VFR even with the -RA). Local LIFR
CIGs/VIS will be possible as the rain moves in tonight,
particularly across southern and western counties. Winds across
the area will mainly be less than 8 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Today will be another cloudy to mostly cloudy day across West
Central Texas, with below normal temperatures. Expect highs today in
the upper 50s along the I-10 corridor, low to mid 60s in the Concho
Valley and Heartland, and upper 60s in the Big Country, with lows
tonight around 49-51 degrees. An upper level trough will approach
the region by this evening, with moisture increasing across West
Central Texas (precipitable water reaching 1.3-1.5 inches). Hi-res
model output indicates that some light showers may move into our
western and southern counties today, but the majority of rainfall
will start late this evening and continue through the overnight
hours with an overrunning situation setting up ahead of the trough
axis.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Tuesday)

..Widespread rain event followed by quiet and warm weather...

(Wednesday through Thursday)

The remnants of hurricane Willa will move across central Mexico
Wednesday afternoon. Out ahead of the main area of circulation, a
large plume of tropical moisture will work its away across western
Texas and into our area. Aloft, a shortwave trough will be
emerging across eastern New Mexico keeping the southwest flow
aloft. Upper level divergence increases as this trough makes its
away across western Texas and collides with the tropical plume
from Willa. Expect widespread to numerous showers with isolated
pockets of thunderstorms across the entire area on Wednesday.
Precipitable water values will be around 1.5" by Wednesday
afternoon. The rain will start out as a stratiform type rain, with
a large rain shield moving in from the southwest. Rainfall rates
will be light but the duration of the rainfall will lead to
rainfall totals between 0.50-0.75" across most areas. As the
remnant low pressure circulation from Willa moves closer to our
area, expect the rainfall intensity to intensify with the added
lift and instability allowing for more convective elements to
form within the next rain bands. Rainfall amounts will be heaviest
across the Interstate 10 corridor and portions of the southern
Concho Valley. This includes: San Angelo, Sonora, Junction, El
Dorado and San Saba. Rainfall totals with this next wave will be
in the 1.5-2.5" range with isolated heavier amounts. We have had a
few days to dry out from the rain event earlier this month, but
soils are still fairly saturated and any additional rainfall could
lead to flooding issues. Currently there is not a Flash Flood
watch in affect. We will continue to monitor this system and issue
any watches or warnings if needed. Temperatures will be cool with
the increased cloud cover and persistent rains. Highs will be in
the 50s on Wednesday and low to mid 60s on Thursday.

(Friday through next Tuesday)

The weather over this period will be quiet and temperatures will
gradually warm back to seasonal normals. We are tracking the
possibility of a weak cold front moving into the area during the
day on Sunday. As of now, we are not expecting and showers or
thunderstorms with this front. Temperatures will warm into the mid
to upper 70s by the weekend. As the cold front moves through,
temperatures on Monday will fall back into the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  50  54  47 /  20  60 100  40
San Angelo  63  50  56  47 /  40  90  90  20
Junction  58  51  57  49 /  50  90  90  20
Brownwood  68  51  56  49 /  20  70 100  40
Sweetwater  67  49  54  46 /  20  80 100  30
Ozona       58  50  55  47 /  60 100  90  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SJH/40
AVIATION 12Z TAFS...SJH