Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 300744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
244 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Moist and unstable air mass continues across West Central Texas,
with convection having redeveloped northeast of Abilene in an
environment where the mid level instability and a little stronger
low level jet combined. Few of the CAMs picked up on anything
like this, although the HRW FV3 at least had something across West
Central Texas. Larger convective complex across the South Plains
and Panhandle was a little better handles by some of the models,
but overall, models continue to struggle in this environment
where mesoscale features are key.

With that said, where the larger complex tracks and whether it
leaves a boundary across the area will be a big part of the
forecast issues for today. Most of the CAMs show some sort of
strong to severe convection redeveloping this afternoon mainly to
the northwest of the area and then forming into a MCS that rolls
across some portion of the area. Models are favoring the Big
Country and will place the highest POPs there for this afternoon
and tonight, with lesser chances across the southern half of the
area. All this assumes that outflow from this mornings convection
doesn`t wash south into the area and stabilize the air mass like
what happened a couple days ago. None of the models show this
happening but will need to monitor.

Hail and winds the main issues for tonight, with at least most of
the models moving the MCS along fast enough to avoid widespread
flood concerns. Again though, this will need to be closely
watched. Portions of the Big Country and Heartland have seen
enough rain over the last 6 weeks that creeks and streams are
still flowing pretty well.

Finally, not messing around with temperatures just a whole lot.
Again, barring a stronger outflow from the north with cooler
readings, highs today in the low to mid 90s look good. Some rain
cooler temperatures behind the MCS should allow more readings in
the 60s for overnight lows.


(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Rain chances will continue across West Central Texas Friday into
Saturday, with a gradual drying trend Sunday into early next week. A
Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is forecast to track across much
of the area Thursday night into early Friday morning. The NAN Nest
and to a lesser extent the HRRR show another round of storms moving
from northwest to southwest across the area later Friday morning. If
this does occur, it might limit our storm potential for later in the
day. Otherwise, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible during the afternoon. A weak cold front may also serve
as a focus for convection. Strong to severe thunderstorms will again
be possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
concerns. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the
Big Country and much of the Heartland to the upper 80s to lower 90s

On Saturday, an upper level ridge will remain centered across
northern Mexico, with West Central Texas in west flow aloft. The GFS
indicates a disturbance tracking across the area late in the day,
resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms to our
west, with this activity then tracking across the forecast area late
in the day and into the overnight hours. The ECMWF is drier, so for
now have kept PoPs in the low end chance category. Highs on Saturday
will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. On Sunday, isolated showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible, mainly confined to the Big
Country and Heartland. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Upper level ridging will begin to build into the region by early
next week, with an increase in temperatures through the middle of the
week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 90s to near 102.
Slight chance PoPs return to the area by the middle of next week.
Isolated mainly diurnally driven convection is possible on the
eastern periphery of the ridge.


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Veil of high clouds continues across West Central Texas terminals
early this morning, with some patchy MVFR cigs peeking out
occasionally. This will largely continue through sunrise, with
mainly VFR conditions at many sites but some some brief MVFR cigs
as well. We continue to monitor the 1 storm across the eastern
Permian Basin as well as Eastern New Mexico but radar trends
suggest neither of these is likely to be a problem through 12Z at
least. Latest CAMs do show much more widespread convection
possible this afternoon and will insert a PROB30 into all of the
sites to account for this possibility for now. Latest forecasts
should be able to provide some more fine tuned timing later.


Abilene     89  64  80  68 /  30  70  50  20
San Angelo  94  67  90  70 /  20  40  40  20
Junction    95  70  92  72 /  20  40  30  20
Brownwood   88  65  81  69 /  30  70  60  30
Sweetwater  91  65  81  68 /  30  70  50  20
Ozona       91  70  90  70 /  20  30  20  10
Brady       89  67  83  69 /  20  50  50  30




LONG TERM....Daniels