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004
FXUS64 KSJT 212314
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
614 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Latest satellite image shows a large cumulus field across the
entire area with some embedded light showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern portions of the area. Cloud bases cumulus
are sitting around 7,000-8,000 feet with thunderstorm cloud tops
around 30,000 feet. Storms will remain isolated and should
dissipate quickly as we head into the evening. Decided to forgo
any mention of VCTS at the terminals in this TAF package. Expect
VFR conditions to persist across all terminals over the next 24
hours. winds will be from the south to southeast between 6 to 12
knots.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1158 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/

AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds are expected for the remainder of
the TAF period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains a
possibility south of the Big Country. However, chances of one
impacting a terminal are so low that they have been left out of
the TAF, but the possibility does exist.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 837 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/

UPDATE...

Short and medium range models continue to show isolated shower
and thunderstorm activity across the Concho Valley and the
Interstate 10 corridor as well. Therefore, the forecast has been
updated to expand the rain chances further to the west. Best
chances will be near Mason, San Saba, and Brady at 30 percent or
so. Elsewhere, most of the activity should remain rather isolated
in nature.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 614 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. However,
isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon south of a
Brownwood to Sonora line, and added VCTS for the KJCT/KSOA
terminal from 21Z-00Z.  21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Looks like mainly a quiet weather pattern for West Central Texas
today and tonight. However, will keep the slight chance Pops going
across the southeast part of the area this afternoon due to some
weak instability. Highs today will be mainly in the upper 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

A hot and dry weather pattern will prevail throughout the
extended period as the upper ridge remains the dominant weather
feature. Temperatures will be above normal through next weekend,
with the hottest temperatures occurring Thursday and Friday when
afternoon highs will top out between 97 and 102 degrees.
Temperatures will cool only slightly next weekend as the center
of the upper ridge shifts a little farther east, with afternoon
highs in the mid and upper 90s. Overnight lows through the
extended period will be in the 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  96  74  96  74 /  10   5   5   5
San Angelo  98  73  98  73 /  20   5  10   0
Junction  97  73  97  72 /  20   5  10   5
Brownwood  96  73  97  72 /  20  10   5   5
Sweetwater  95  74  96  75 /  10   5   5   0
Ozona       95  72  95  71 /  20   5   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/40