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683
FXUS64 KSJT 210912
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
412 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Upper level trough over the Southwest US continues to produce
southwest flow aloft across the area. Satellite shows this flow
tapping into some of the moisture streaming off Hurricane Lorena off
the coast of Mexico. With an enhanced mid and upper level moisture
profile and abundant low level moisture from the Gulf, doesn`t take
much to produce convection. This will be focused across the Permian
Basin northeast into Southwest Oklahoma today and tonight, just
clipping the western and northern portions of the area. Have boosted
PoPs for locations mainly west of an Ozona to Sterling City to
Sweetwater to Throckmorton line for today and tonight. As we saw
across portions of the Red River Valley yesterday, some training of
echos is certainly possible and localized heavy rainfall will be a
concern. Will hold off on any type of headlines for now with the
models consistent in keeping the main part of this threat just north
of Haskell and Throckmorton.

Otherwise, a stray shower or storm is possible farther east as well,
especially with several outflow boundaries draped across the area.
More cloud cover will again keep temperatures down a few more
degrees, holding in the lower 90s for most areas.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The possibility for showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast for
most of the upcoming week. Temperatures are expected to remain
above normal, but not to the extent our area has seen during the
past week.

On Sunday, will continue to have embedded disturbances in southwest
flow aloft moving over west and northwest Texas. The setup looks
similar to today, with mid/upper level moisture from the remnants of
tropical system Lorena and very moist lower levels. The higher PoPs
for showers and thunderstorms Sunday are across our northern and
northwestern counties, along the axis of highest precipitable water.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible. Lower rain chances extend
farther east and south through much of the rest of our area,
where residual outflow boundaries may reside. With increased cloud
cover on Sunday, high temperatures should be confined to mainly
the upper 80s and lower 90s.

With a vigorous upper level trough moving east from the northern and
central Plains into the Midwest on Sunday, trailing portion of
associated cold front is progged to move south of the Red River and
into our northern counties Sunday night. Have some uncertainty in
how far south the front will advance before stalling, but the
boundary should focus additional shower/thunderstorm development
Sunday night and into Monday. Locally heavy rain will again be
possible with precipitable water values between 1.7 and 2 inches
in the vicinity of the front. Going conservative with PoPs Sunday
night into Monday, but higher adjustments may be needed. Highs on
Monday are expected to range from the upper 80s north to lower
90s south.

Rain chances look more uncertain Tuesday and Wednesday for our area.
A weak upper high will be over the eastern Gulf Coast during that
time, while an upper low drops southeast to over the Arizona and
Mexico border and becomes nearly stationary.

The upper low is progged to open into a wave and lift northeast
across New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle later in the week. The
faster 00Z GFS has this progression Thursday into Thursday night,
while the ECMWF has it Thursday night into Friday. Either way,
this would bring an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms
to our area.

Daily highs Tuesday through Friday are expected to be generally in
the 90-94 degree range, but will depend on extent of daytime cloud
cover and timing/coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  91  71  91  70 /  20  30  30  20
San Angelo  93  70  92  71 /  20  20  20  20
Junction  92  70  92  71 /  10   5  10   5
Brownwood  92  68  91  71 /  10  10  10   5
Sweetwater  89  71  88  69 /  30  40  30  30
Ozona       91  69  88  70 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07/19