582
FXUS64 KSJT 122006
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
306 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Showers and thunderstorms that impacted our area this morning
have moved off into north and central Texas. A few showers are
lingering across the northeastern Big Country, but additional
rainfall amounts will be light. Heaviest rains today fell in San
Saba County where LCRA gauges picked up 1-3 inches. We could see
a few more thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening
although confidence is low given the extensive mid level cloud
deck streaming overhead. Nevertheless, given instability (ML CAPE
values greater than 2500 J/KG) and effective bulk shear values of
40-50 knots per the RAP, cannot rule out another strong to severe
storm similar to yesterday. Large hail potentially bigger than
golf balls will be possible given steep lapse rates aloft.
Otherwise, this evening and tonight will be quiet for most of the
area. Patchy fog will be possible tonight given the moist low
level airmass. Expect the clouds and fog to scatter out by Monday
afternoon, with some sunshine and temperatures warming into the
mid 80s to lower 90s. PoPs will be confined to the northwest Hill
Country where a few showers and thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Expect mainly a dry and warmer forecast for early this week as 500
MB heights increase and our area is in the surface warm sector.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s Tuesday. The next upper
level disturbance is due in by middle of this week and at the
surface will see a dryline moving into our area by late Wednesday
afternoon and a weak cold front and dryline intersection in the
Trans Pecos by Thursday morning. Also, moderate/strong instability
will be over much of the area with some vertical wind shear. As a
result, expect a few rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms
Wednesday night through Thursday. The month of May is the peak of
severe weather season, so can not rule out a few severe storms.
Going with mainly medium chances of rain. Look for dry and warmer
weather Friday through Sunday, with highs mainly in the 90s next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

IFR/MVFR cigs are impacting all terminals this afternoon. Some
improvement to VFR is possible later this afternoon before another
potential round of MVFR/IFR ceilings tonight. Patchy fog or mist
will also continue to impact the terminals through the morning
hours on Monday. Finally, a few thunderstorms may develop near
KSJT in the late afternoon or evening but confidence in coverage
of these storms is too low to include a mention in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  84  58  89 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo  61  90  58  95 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    66  93  60  95 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   65  85  57  87 /  20  10   0   0
Sweetwater  61  85  59  89 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       61  90  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       66  85  59  87 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...42