773
FXUS64 KSJT 162329
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
629 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated thunderstorm are possible today and tomorrow
  during the late afternoon and evening.

- A cold front is expected on Saturday, bringing low to medium
  (30-50%) rain chances and considerably cooler temperatures for
  the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The main focus this evening and tomorrow evening once again will be
the threat for strong to severe storms as the region remains in
southwest flow aloft.  This afternoon, a dryline remains located
from northwest Texas southward to the Big Bend region.  Ahead of the
dryline, plenty of instability is in place with temperatures near 90
and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. CAPE values are in the 2000-3000
J/kg range. As the dryline mixes eastward this evening, isolated
to widely scattered storms could occur again, mainly across the
Big Country and western Concho Valley. Any storm cells could have
the potential to produce large hail and locally damaging downburst
winds. Overnight, storms should quickly diminish with the loss of
daytime heating. The dryline should retreat and allow low-level
moisture to settle back in across west central Texas. As a result,
a deck of low clouds can be expected for much of the area for
much of Friday morning. After this cloud deck burns off, the setup
appears similar to Thursday with temperatures pushing 90 and
dewpoints in the mid 50s. The NAM shows the dryline mixing
eastward a bit faster tomorrow although models tend to struggle
with the timing of this feature. Regardless, soundings show that
the airmass might be capped for much of tomorrow afternoon. This
could inhibit or delay storm initiation until the late evening.
Just like Thursday, storms would be isolated to widely scattered
that could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Friday afternoon, the dryline will advance east, into our western
counties. The dryline will then begin retreating to the west during
the early evening hours. Several CAMs, including the HRRR, are
indicating isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the
retreating dryline by mid to late evening, ahead of the cold front.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with large hail
and damaging winds being the main concerns. The cold front will then
quickly move south across the area after midnight, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected along and just behind the front.
Gusty north winds of 20 to 30 mph, with higher gusts, are forecast
behind the front. Winds should be strongest for a few hours
following frontal passage, but gusty winds should continue into the
afternoon hours. Highs on Saturday will be much cooler behind the
front, in the mid 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be in the low
to mid 40s.

On Sunday, an upper level shortwave trough will approach West
Central Texas and track across the area Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this feature cloud cover will steadily increase through the
day. Highs on Sunday will continue to be relatively cool, in the mid
to upper 60s across the southern half of the area where more cloud
cover is expected, to the low to mid 70s across the northern half of
the area. As the shortwave approaches, rain chances will increase
Sunday night into Monday. Expect low (20-30%) rain chances during
the time frame. Highs on Monday will be cool, with highs in the low
to mid 60s. A steady warm up is then forecast through the middle of
the week with highs on Tuesday back into the 70s and highs on
Wednesday in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Another round of MVFR to occasional IFR stratus is expected
overnight and into the morning hours. Gradual improvement to VFR
cigs is expecting during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop in the late afternoon or evening but confidence was
too low to include a mention in this TAF package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  89  52  66 /  20  10  50  20
San Angelo  65  89  51  66 /  20  10  50  40
Junction    63  88  52  68 /  20  10  20  60
Brownwood   64  86  51  65 /  10  10  50  50
Sweetwater  68  92  51  68 /  20  10  40  10
Ozona       65  87  54  66 /  30  10  50  40
Brady       64  86  52  65 /  10  10  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...42