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000
FXUS64 KSJT 242341 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
641 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

...Severe Weather Outbreak Possible This Afternoon and Evening...

The latest mesoanalysis indicates an outflow boundary along a San
Angelo to Brownwood line. A dryline was located west of our area
in the Trans Pecos. The warm sector was located across the
southern half of the area with SBCAPES of 1500 to 2000 J/kg,
locally 2500 J/kg. The effective shear is strong, 35 to 45 knots.

The Hi-Res models indicates initial storms will be supercells
developing, mainly across the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards
Plateau late this afternoon and early evening. These storms may
produce very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Then a QLCS system will move east-southeast across much of the
area this evening and exiting the southern part of the area by
midnight. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail with
these storms. Also, localized flash flooding is possible due to
heavy rainfall and possible training of storms. Look for isolated
to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms after midnight and
then a dry forecast for Wednesday. Look for nice weather on
Wednesday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

By Wednesday night, showers and storms will be along the TX
coast, and our area will be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft, resulting in drying and clearing conditions. With clear
skies, dry air, and light winds, lows will be able to drop into
the lower 50s to around 60 degrees, well below normal values.

A warm-up is still anticipated from Thursday through the weekend,
as upper level ridging and the low level thermal ridge move back
into the area. By Saturday, triple digit heat is expected at most
locations north of an Ozona to San Saba line. Winds are also
expected to pick up out of the southwest from Saturday through the
first half of next week, resulting in increased fire weather
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

A band of strong to severe thunderstorms, extending from Brownwood
to Sonora at 625 PM, will move east across the southeastern part
of our area this evening. Another area of showers and storms is
approaching the western Big Country and northwestern Concho
Valley, from West Texas. This area of convection will move east-
southeast across our area between 630 PM and Midnight. Our TAF
sites will have ceiling and visibility reductions in the heavy
rain accompanying the showers and storms. The stronger storms
will have a threat for hail and strong, gusty winds.

Skies will be clearing tonight, once the showers and storms exit
the area. Patchy low cloud development is expected late tonight
over mainly the Big Country, with bases and ceilings 2000-2500 ft.
This should occasinally affect the KABI TAF site.

Mostly sunny skies and VFR conditions are expected during the day
Wednesday, with somewhat gusty north-northwest winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     54  77  52  88 /  60   0   0   0
San Angelo  55  81  53  92 /  60   0   0   0
Junction    59  80  54  91 /  70  10   0   0
Brownwood   56  78  52  88 /  80   0   0   0
Sweetwater  52  78  55  90 /  40   0   0   0
Ozona       57  80  56  89 /  60   0   0   0
Brady       58  78  54  89 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19