Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 261746 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1146 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through
the next 24 hours. Winds will be from the north-northwest at
5-8 knots this afternoon. Light east to southeast winds are
expected tonight. Carrying a Tempo group with brief visibility
reductions at KBBD and KJCT, where some patchy patchy fog or
ground fog may develop early Monday morning. An increase in
south-southwest winds is expected by mid-to-late morning on
Monday.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 510 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

IFR and MVFR conditions should improve by 15Z this morning.
Otherwise, light winds and VFR expected the rest of the day. Winds
should turn out of the southeast this evening. Fog is possible
again at some locations by around 09Z tonight.

SK

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, a stratus deck had overspread much of the
Edwards Plateau and parts of the Concho Valley. Patchy fog was
also observed on the Night Fog imagery for most stratus-free
locations south of I-20. Temperatures across West Central Texas
were in the 40s and low 50s, with dewpoints following close behind
for most locations. A weak frontal boundary was located over the
Big Country and gradually moving south. This boundary will
continue moving southeastward today, providing nothing more than a
weak wind shift for the region. Meanwhile, the stratus deck and
any fog should dissipate by 15Z as the shallow inversion breaks,
giving way to sunny skies for the rest of today. Temperatures
should warm to the low 70s for much of the Concho Valley, Hill
Country and Edwards Plateau, but only reach the upper 60s in the
Big Country. Tonight, skies will remain clear with slightly drier
conditions expected in the low levels. This should allow
temperatures to fall to around 40 degrees overnight.

SK

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)

No significant departures from the previous forecast this
morning. Monday is still expected to be much warmer than normal,
with highs as warm as 80 degrees possible, mainly in the western
Concho Valley area where breezy west winds will develop resulting
in drying/downsloping conditions, causing temperatures to soar.

An upper level trough quickly moves in behind this warm weather
Monday night, bringing lift, as well as a Pacific, and Canadian
cold front through the area. Moisture will be drawn northward
ahead of the upper low as it moves into Texas. This will bring at
least a chance of showers and possible some thunderstorms to parts
of Texas, particularly the eastern half. The Pacific
front/dryline may actually move east through much of our area
pushing the initial showers and thunderstorms into the eastern
half of the CWA Tuesday night. However, there is still a chance
that isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms could affect
western counties, so have left a slight chance in for the western
Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau areas, with higher
chances farther east. Will also have slightly better chances
across the Big Country where lift from the center of the upper low
will interact with the Canadian cold front as it moves south.
Best chances appear to be after midnight Monday night.
Precipitation chances move quickly east Tuesday.

Generally cooler temperatures can be expected through the rest of
the forecast. Another upper level low will move through the
region Thursday. This will result in another slight chance to
chance for precipitation, and cooler temperatures. However, with
the center of this low expected to be farther south, the best
chances for precip will also be farther south. Behind this second
upper system, upper level northwest flow will move in allowing for
a drier period of warming weather.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  40  73  44 /   0   0   0  20
San Angelo  72  40  79  45 /   0   0   0  20
Junction  72  42  77  45 /   0   0   0  50
Brownwood  69  37  75  45 /   0   0   0  40
Sweetwater  67  43  73  44 /   0   0   0  20
Ozona       72  40  75  44 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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