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000
FXUS64 KSJT 231943
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
243 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

An upper level trough axis will be moving across the Four Corners
region this afternoon and up into Colorado this evening. A
dryline will remain near stationary along the eastern New
Mexico/Texas South Plains border and down through the Big Bend
region. Lift from the trough will likely induce thunderstorm
activity along and just ahead of the dry-line late this afternoon
and evening, with a slight chance that a few storms make it into
the northwest Big Country, northwest Concho Valley and western
Crockett County.

With south to southeast low level moist flow from the Gulf
continuing, expect dewpoints across West Central Texas to continue
to be high (in the upper 60s), with a quick return of stratus
clouds this evening and overnight. Lows tonight are forecast to be
in the low 70s.

For Friday, not much change. A few late afternoon and evening
storms may make it east into the Big Country, Concho Valley and
Crockett County. The best for thunderstorms(chance Pops) will be
west of a Haskell to Sterling City line. Expect another very warm
and humid day, with highs mainly in the mid 80s.

21

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

From Friday night through the first half of next week, west-
central Texas will be located between upper level ridging to our
east, and active southwest flow just to our west around a large
western U. S. low. This will mean generally warm temperatures with
highs continuing to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s, and
thunderstorm activity to our west that could make it into our
western counties during the afternoon and evening hours. Models
show weak shortwave activity in the southwest flow through
Saturday, then models show a more pronounced wave ejecting to the
northeast over west Texas Sunday afternoon/night, bringing a
slightly better chance for showers/storms farther east into our
CWA. The western U. S. trough will also edge eastward Monday into
Tuesday, resulting in a general slight uptick in rain chances
across the entire area, so will show a Slight Chance to Chance for
showers and storms from the middle through the second half of
next week.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  84  68  86 /  10  20  30  10
San Angelo  73  86  69  87 /  10  20  20  10
Junction  74  86  70  88 /  10  10  10   5
Brownwood  73  84  68  86 /   5  10  10   5
Sweetwater  71  84  68  84 /  20  30  40  20
Ozona       72  83  68  84 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$