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000
FXUS64 KSJT 280906
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
406 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Early this morning, much of west central Texas is dry, besides a few
storms over Throckmorton County. It was humid across the area with
dewpoints in the 60s and PW values of 1.2 to 1.4 inches. The mid to
upper level flow was weak due a ridge axis. Also, an MCS was moving
away from our area  with the leading line of storms now over south
Texas.

For today through tonight, expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across much of our area, mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours. The Hi-Res models have different solutions on
coverage of storms during the next 24 hours, so rainfall amounts
will vary greatly across our area. Not a lot of focus for lift
besides a few outflow boundaries. The main hazard with storms will
be isolated flash flooding due to above average PW values and a
quick 1 to 3 inches of rain possible due to possible training of
thunderstorms. Also, the Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a
slight risk across our area through 12Z Sunday. The severe weather
threat looks low, but can not rule out a few strong to severe
storms this afternoon and evening mainly west of an Sweetwater to
San Angelo to Sonora line. The main hazards will be marginal
large hail(quarter size) and damaging winds. Most of the
convection should be over after midnight. Highs today will be
mainly in the lower 80s, well below normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

The last of a series of midlevel shortwave troughs will be the
main feature to watch on Memorial Day. Overnight convection from
Sunday night may make an appearance in the morning, but as the
trough pushes eastward, rain chances should decrease as the day
progresses. Activity should be mostly scattered in nature and
could produce locally heavy rainfall. Lingering cloud cover could
also hamper further thunderstorm development, along with high
temperatures, which look to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Starting Tuesday, a ridge will move in across most of Texas, which
will allow for a rare dry forecast through at least Wednesday and
possibly through Thursday.  However, given the lack of rain during
these days, cloud cover will be far less, which should push high
temperatures to the upper 80s.  By Friday, an upper-level trough
will build in across the western US and nudge the ridge eastward.
Multiple shortwaves look to rotate around the base of this trough
through the weekend, so this will likely push us back into an active
pattern with chances for thunderstorms each day.  Timing and
location should be refined later this week as the upper-level
pattern becomes more clear.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible across much of
the area Sunday afternoon and evening. However, Hi-Res models are
all over the place with convection coverage from a few storms to
widespread. For now, just going with VCSH at the western terminals
for late afternoon and evening with thunder possible. Otherwise,
expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at the terminals Sunday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     79  62  80  61 /  60  50  40  10
San Angelo  82  63  83  61 /  60  30  30  10
Junction    82  63  81  61 /  40  40  50  10
Brownwood   82  63  80  61 /  50  50  50  20
Sweetwater  80  62  81  61 /  60  40  30  10
Ozona       80  63  82  61 /  50  30  20  10
Brady       82  63  78  61 /  50  50  50  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...21