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000
FXUS64 KSJT 172321
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
521 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period.
Winds should remain light and will be coming from the northeast
and east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 215 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

..Unseasonably Cool...

A cold front, which moved across West Central Texas today, will
continue to produce temperatures below usual mid February
temperatures. Winds will continue from the northeast or east,
through Monday afternoon. These wind directions are most often
associated with cold air advection, into West Central Texas, and the
upslope winds from the east usually produce cooling. Lows tonight,
across the Big Country, will likely be slightly below the freezing
mark; elsewhere, lows mainly in the lower to mid 30s look
reasonable. Highs on Monday will range from the lower to mid 40s,
across the Big Country, to the upper 50s, along our Interstate 10
corridor.

LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)

A large upper level trough will be centered across the Intermountain
West late Monday and is forecast to approach the Plains Tuesday into
Tuesday night. As this feature approaches, isentropic ascent will
increase across West Central Texas, resulting in the development of
light precipitation. Cold air will be in place across the forecast
area, with surface temperatures Tuesday morning in the upper 20s
to lower 30s across much of the Big Country, while much of the
rest of the area remains in the mid to upper 30s. Given the
expected surface temperatures near to slightly below freezing
across portions of the Big Country, frozen precipitation will be
possible, mainly between midnight and noon Tuesday. Forecast model
soundings indicate a stout warm layer between 850 and 650
millibars, so light freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet, is
the most likely precipitation type. At this time, accumulations
are forecast to remain light, mainly on elevated surfaces,
bridges, and overpasses. Temperatures by Tuesday afternoon are
forecast to climb above freezing, with all liquid rain expected.
Precipitation chances will quickly end from west to east late
Tuesday afternoon/evening, with mainly dry conditions expected
after midnight Wednesday. Cold temperatures are forecast Wednesday
morning, with most locations dropping into the low to mid 30s.

Warmer temperatures, albeit still below normal, are expected
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will generally be in the mid 50s to
lower 60s, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Warmer
temperatures are anticipated on Friday ahead of the next upper level
trough that is forecast to approach West Central Texas on Saturday.
This will result in a slight chance of showers Friday into Saturday,
although rainfall totals are forecast to remain light.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  31  46  32  41 /   0   0  20  40
San Angelo  34  53  36  48 /   0   0  20  40
Junction  36  57  39  54 /   0   0  20  40
Brownwood  32  48  35  43 /   0   0  30  60
Sweetwater  31  46  30  41 /   0   0  20  40
Ozona       36  57  40  54 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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