947
FXUS64 KSJT 100454
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1054 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold frontal passage Saturday night with cooler temperatures
  Sunday.

- Dry forecast this week and during the weekend but a slight chance
  of showers (<20%) for early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Current surface analysis was showing a surface trough over the
Panhandle extending southward into west Texas. This was resulting
in gusty southerly winds across our area this afternoon. Temperatures
so far have warmed up nicely into the upper 60s and lower 70s.
For tonight expect mostly clear and mild conditions, with lows
dropping into the 40s. On Wednesday an upper level trough over the
Plains will send a cold front through the area. Winds will switch
around out of the north-northeast behind the front and become
gusty after daybreak. Despite the frontal passage, highs will only
drop a few degrees- in the mid to upper 60s- compared to today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1242 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

A predominantly northwest-flow pattern should continue at the upper-
levels for west central Texas Thursday through Saturday.  A warm
airmass in the low levels should also continue during this time.
Temperatures at 850mb will be 10-12 deg C on Thursday, warming to 12-
16 for Friday and Saturday.  This should lend to highs around 70 on
Thursday, warming to the mid to upper 70s on Friday and Saturday.
Nights will continue to have plenty of radiational cooling with
clear skies and fairly light winds, so lows will be in the 30s and
40s.

Looking ahead to Saturday night into Sunday, model consensus brings
a stronger cold front through Texas, driven by a 1040mb high over
the Midwest.  Currently, our forecast shows high temperatures
reaching the 50s for Sunday behind the front.  However, there is
potential for this front to get into Texas earlier Saturday evening.
This could result in colder temperatures for Sunday as model spreads
show potentially colder temperatures.  For example, the 25th
percentile shows highs in the 40s, and 10th percentile in the 30s.
Regardless, given the mostly cloudy skies and cold advection
expected behind the front, conditions will likely feel cooler than
the forecast temperatures. High temperatures look to rebound into
the 60s for Monday and Tuesday as southerly return flow is expected
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. For now, rain chances with
this trough look low, but this will be monitored with subsequent
models runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. The front will
move through KABI around 12Z, KSJT around 15Z and the remaining
terminals between 16Z and 17Z. Gusty north to northeast winds
will develop behind the front, with gusts between 25 and 30 knots
expected into the afternoon hours. Winds will diminish to 10
knots or less by early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     45  64  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  42  65  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    39  69  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   40  65  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  46  62  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       39  66  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       44  64  37  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...24