995
FXUS64 KSJT 021823
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
123 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer weather is expected through this week.

- Rain chances return by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A dissipating cold front is moving south across our area early
this afternoon. North-northeast winds are only slightly stronger
behind this rather weak boundary. Weak surface high pressure over
Kansas will shift south across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle
tonight. With light winds and radiational cooling in our area
tonight, overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s. With
sunny skies Wednesday and a slight increase in 850mb temperatures,
highs will be a degree or two warmer than today, and in the lower
to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Hot and dry conditions continue across West Central Texas for
Thursday and Friday. Low level thermal ridge builds into the area,
with 850mb temperatures climbing to over 20C, and southwest
surface winds adding a downslope component. Models have forecast
highs climbing to near or a little above the 100 degree mark for
much of the Big Country. Record highs for Abilene are 106 (2000)
for Thursday and 107 (2023) for Friday so records not likely in
jeopardy at this point.

Forecast for the weekend into early next week will be influenced
by new Tropical Storm Lorena in the eastern Pacific and if/how it
combines some of that moisture with an approaching cold front.
Lorena is forecasted by NHC to recurve across Baja California and
then spread moisture into the Southern Rockies and Southern
Plains as its gets absorbed into a passing shortwave. This far
out, trying to pin down exactly where this system ends up, or
where the different pieces of it may end up as it breaks apart, is
a huge uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the cold front likely to spread south across much of
West Central Texas on late Saturday into Sunday. Would likely have
at lease some POP chances with the front even without Lorena
moisture, but possible presence of Lorena adds to the mixture.
Different model ensemble members are anywhere from nearly
completely dry to at least pockets of heavy rainfall across the
area. Given this range and uncertainty, will stick pretty close to
the model blends for rainfall chances for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR conditions and generally clear skies are expected through the
next 24 hours. North-northeast winds 6-10 knots this afternoon will
decrease this evening. Winds will become light tonight, and remain
light into Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     65  94  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  66  94  65  98 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    66  94  63  99 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   65  93  64  99 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  64  95  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       67  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       67  92  64  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19