558
FXUS65 KSLC 070954
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
354 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An early season heat wave will impact the area through
the end of the week, with record-challenging temperatures
anticipated into Friday, especially for southern Utah. As the
ridge flattens through the weekend, the warming trend will curb
and some moisture will move into the area, increasing the threat
of convection, particularly today. The threat of showers and
thunderstorms will continue into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Sunday)...The ridge axis that was over
Utah yesterday has shifted eastward into Colorado this morning,
and the entire feature has flattened in response to a trough
moving across southern Canada. As a result, seeing a west to
southwest flow develop over the area that is starting to draw
moisture back into the area, particularly over northern Utah.
Satellite derived PWs indicate a jump from 0.3-0.4 to about
0.5-0.6 inch. Additionally seeing some weak shortwave energy
rotate through Nevada and far northern Utah, resulting in a few
showers.

As this initial shortwave exits the area, will see a relative lull
in shower activity this morning. However, a more organized looking
shortwave is on track to move across northern and central Utah
during the afternoon and evening hours with some modest associated
jet support. This will result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms, and with inverted-V profiles in place, these storms
will produce little rainfall. Thus, conditions appear quite
favorable for strong gusty winds with the storms, with increasing
speed shear perhaps providing the means for some longer lived
storms. The moisture is not expected to go much of anywhere on
Saturday, though overall coverage and organization of storms will
be less than what is expected today due to the lack of shortwave
energy and re-amplification of the ridge over the Great Basin
perhaps providing a bit more stability.

Meanwhile, southern Utah is expected to stay dry and very hot
today, with maxes anticipated to be similar to yesterday. Thus,
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect
today, with the Excessive Heat Warnings extending into Saturday as
the dangerous heat lingers on.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday)...A shortwave will graze northern
Utah on Sunday. This will help to initiate afternoon convection,
particularly across northern Utah/SW Wyoming and the terrain of
central and northern Utah. SPC has a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms for northern Utah and southwest Wyoming from Salt Lake
City northward. Steep lapse rates along with modest CAPE/Shear
profiles will be conducive for afternoon storms to contain gusty
winds that could meet severe criteria. Soundings depict a dry
surface layer up to ~10,000 feet so any storms that do develop will
be high based and capable of producing microbursts. In addition to
the risk for strong to severe storms, temperatures will be 10-15
degrees above normal, although slightly cooler across far southern
Utah compared to where they have been (~100F).

By Monday, cooler and drier air starts to move in behind the exiting
shortwave. However, highs will still be ~5 degrees above normal.
Afternoon convection will remain possible across the far eastern
portion of the CWA given the shortwave will be slow to exit to our
east. Temperatures will start to warm again throughout the week as
high pressure settles back into the area. Expect temperatures once
again 10-15 degrees above normal by midweek.

Towards the end of the week a cutoff low off the coast of southern
California will shift east towards the desert southwest. As it does
so, southwesterly flow will begin to increase with increasing winds
near the surface. Isolated precipitation chances will increase as
this low gets closer to southern Utah by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the period. Winds have remained northerly overnight, but
there is a chance (~50%) they briefly switch to a light southerly
flow before returning to a northerly component during the afternoon.
Convection will develop across western Utah during the afternoon and
drift east towards the terminal by late afternoon with potentially
gusty crosswinds associated with thunderstorm outflow.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
across all terminals throughout the period. Afternoon convection
develops across western Utah with gusty outflow winds developing and
drifting east through the late afternoon/early evening. Southern
Utah will likely be south of these storms with just some gusty
southerly winds during the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure has shifted east of the area this
morning and will weaken today. This will allow moisture to return
to the area, and with instability from some weak shortwaves, this
will bring the return of showers and thunderstorms, primarily
during the afternoon and early evening. because the lower levels
will remain dry, little rain is expected with these storms,
bringing a heightened potential of dry lightning and gusty outflow
winds, especially for northern Utah. The threat of showers and
storms continues into the weekend and early next week, but
coverage is expected to be a bit less than today.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ121-122-128>130.

     Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT Saturday night for
     UTZ123-124-131.

WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Mahan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity