441
FXUS65 KSLC 272042
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
242 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue
through at least the weekend, with the potential for a modest
moisture surge arriving next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Model consensus is well-
clustered around the idea of gradual mid-level height rises
through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure gradually forms
and strengthens in the vicinity of the Four Corners into early
next week. As a result, temperatures will become increasingly hot
through the weekend, reaching 5F to 15F above normal by early next
week. A ribbon of modest mid-level moisture will then advect
across northern Utah this weekend, providing just enough moisture
to support the development of terrain-based cumulus development,
along with a shower or two. The best chance (albeit a very low, or
less than 20% chance) of thunder is currently advertised across
the Uintas. Given the dry sub-cloud layers, any shower/storm will
be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds. Otherwise, smoke
from southern Utah wildfires has overspread much of the state
today. HRRR smoke suggests smoke concentrations will gradually
improve across northern Utah tonight, and be largely confined to
southern Utah over the weekend given the emergence of westerly
flow. Of course, location and concentration of smoke will be
modulated by any new starts.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday), Issued 347 AM MDT...
On Sunday a ridge of high pressure will remain flexed over the
local area as a trough churns off the California Pacific coast.
Strong positive H7 temperature anomalies will in turn drive warm
high temperatures, generally running around 5-10F above
climatological normal. The subsident effects of the ridge should
help preclude widespread precipitation, but limited quantities of
moisture trapped beneath the ridge in combination with daytime
heating should be sufficient for a few terrain initiated
showers/thunderstorms. Highest chances appear to be in the
vicinity of the Uinta Mountains.

Temperatures nudge upward slightly and peak on Monday as the ridge
strengthens a bit over the Four Corners region and the approaching
trough helps to introduce a bit more deep layer southerly flow.
Numbers have dipped slightly from prior forecasts, but it still
appears portions of the Wasatch Front could flirt with the 100F
mark, and lower elevations across southern Utah (lower Washington
County, lower Zion NP, Glen Canyon NRA, etc.) will sit in the 100-
110F range. While at the moment this doesn`t push HeatRisk to
headline levels, those spending time outdoors should still practice
typical heat related precautions such as wearing light colored loose
fitting clothing, taking breaks when possible to help stay cool, and
keeping well hydrated. With the slightly enhanced southerly flow,
moisture also increases slightly and as such will see slightly
better precipitation chances, though once again largely focused
along/adjacent to high terrain.

Moving onward through the week the trough continues to very slowly
translate eastward through the Great Basin. The nearby ridge will
still help lead to warm daytime temperatures, but the combination of
the circulation around the ridge in addition to the trough will
yield a favorable southerly tap for the introduction of more
monsoonal type moisture into the region. As such, will see
precipitation chances increase further. Activity will still largely
be initiated off of high terrain and drift into adjacent lower
elevations, especially in southern Utah where there is more
favorable odds of stronger moisture quantities. Any stronger
thunderstorms would likely be capable of periods of heavy rain,
posing a threat to rain sensitive areas such as burn scars, slot
canyons, typically dry washes, and slickrock areas. The loose model
consensus still supports a similar pattern being maintained into the
4th of July, and while it is far too early to tell just how
strong/widespread activity may become, it remains a forecast worth
keeping an eye on given associated recreation and festivities with
the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Well established lake boundary has the airfield
under steady northwest flow, though seeing some evidence of
southerly winds returning further south in the valley. There is a
low but nonzero chance that flow flips southerly if these winds can
push far enough north before the typical shift to southeast around
04Z this evening. Otherwise, will continue to see some thin layers
of smoke aloft with little cloud cover to speak of.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
across the airspace outside of areas downstream of large wildfires
in the south. For those isolated areas (e.g. BCE) overnight
stability will again allow for smoke to drive localized IFR/LIFR
conditions. High pressure continues to dominate the area with weak
gradients allowing terrain-driven and thermally-driven flows to
dominate. Saturday afternoon will see low but increasing
thunderstorm/outflow wind chances, particularly in the northeast
quadrant of UT as well as southwest WY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and very dry conditions will continue through
at least Tuesday, with temperatures rising to 5F to 15F above
normal for late June and early July, with the largest temperature
departures across northern Utah. A ribbon of enhanced mid-level
moisture will slide across northern and central Utah through
Monday, resulting in some afternoon terrain-based cumulus, and an
isolated shower or two. The chance for lightning through Monday is
very low (at or below 20%) and is largely confined to the Uintas.
Given the dry environment, this isolated activity will have the
potential to produce gusty, erratic winds. An ever-so-slight
increase in RH will build into northern Utah this weekend, but
most locations will continue to see poor overnight recovery with
afternoon min RH at or under 15%. Meanwhile, through early this
evening, slightly enhanced winds across southern Utah will result
in elevated to isolated near-critical fire weather conditions
where fuels are critical, with wind gusts to 20-25 mph range, with
brief, localized gusts to 30 mph. Otherwise, winds should remain
relatively light through the weekend.

Monsoonal moisture will likely move into Utah mid next week,
though confidence on the timing, location and extent of shower and
thunderstorm activity remains low. As a whole, this moisture
surge looks to be more of a dry microburst and dry lightning
threat (gusty and erratic outflow winds and little precipitation)
rather than a widespread rainfall threat, though locally wetting
rains can`t be ruled out. RH is likely to modestly improve in most
scenarios, especially overnight recoveries, but there is still
that question of the magnitude of improvement.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

ADeSmet/Warthen/Wessler

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