330
FXUS65 KSLC 120445
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1045 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record to record heat expected through Wednesday.

- Gusty southwesterly winds and single-digit daytime relative
  humidity will result in a period of critical fire weather
  conditions across portions of southern Utah on Wednesday.

- Isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms bring the
  threat of strong to severe wind gusts and small hail Wednesday
  afternoon and evening, mainly across high terrain and northern
  Utah.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An anomalously strong ridge currently overhead will
continue to amplify through Tuesday, which will yield some of the
warmest temperatures of the year tomorrow afternoon. Highs will
once again challenge daily records across the region, with
temperatures soaring around 20 degrees above seasonal normals.
Avoid strenuous outdoor activity if possible, and be sure to have
a way to keep cool during this anomalous warmth.

A shift in the pattern from persistent heat and bone-dry
conditions is still expected mid-week as a shortwave trough
digging into the PacNW shunts the ridge eastward. This will
introduce stronger southwesterly flow across the region Wednesday,
resulting in widespread afternoon wind gusts between 25-40 mph
across Utah and southwest Wyoming. Strongest winds are expected
across the West Desert and portions of southwest Utah, which when
combined with very low humidity, will produce a period of fire
weather conditions across these areas. See the Fire Weather
section below for additional information on this threat.

Mid-level moisture advection is expected on the backside of the
exiting ridge on Wednesday, yielding a pretty substantial
increase in PWATs across the region; PWAT anomalies across Utah
and southwest Wyoming peak around 125-150% of normal by Wednesday
afternoon. Concurrently, the aforementioned PacNW shortwave trough
is expected to brush northern Utah on Wednesday afternoon, and
when coupled with intense daytime heating will produce sufficient
forcing for scattered high-based convection. Convection may
develop first across the high terrain, but coverage is expected to
expand northeast through the afternoon. Early high- res model
data indicates a very favorable environment across central and
northern Utah (including the Wasatch Front) for both strong to
severe wind gusts given DCAPE values around 1400-1600 J/kg, as
well as small hail given substantial shear and high mid- level
lapse rates.

Thunderstorm activity wanes across the region late Wednesday as
a drier airmass quickly moves in behind the shortwave. Cooler
conditions prevail on Thursday behind the exiting system, with
temperatures moderating closer to seasonal normals across the
region. More zonal flow is expected to develop across the western
US on Friday, allowing temperatures to rise back to around 10
degrees above average areawide. More uncertainty in the forecast
exists this weekend as models work out the evolution of another
trough moving into the northwest. Still around 80% of ensemble
members show a drier solution that would only knock temperatures
down slightly for the weekend, but there is still 20% that show a
much stronger cooldown with better chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal
through the period. Dry and stable conditions with clear skies will
continue with light and diurnally driven winds.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
for the entire airspace through the period. Dry and stable
conditions with clear skies will continue with light and diurnally
driven winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A strong area of high pressure will dominate the
region through Wednesday. This ridge will result in record heat
and very dry conditions. Daytime humidity minimums will fall to
single digits to low teens, and overnight recoveries through
midweek will be minimal.

An approaching system will result in increasing south to
southwesterly winds Wednesday. Widespread gusts of 25-40 mph are
expected to develop through the afternoon and evening. In areas
where fuels are sufficiently dry, this will result in locally
critical fire weather conditions (particularly fire weather zones
495, 496, and 497 below around 8000 feet). Additionally,
increasing mid level moisture will bring the threat of isolated
high-based convection Wednesday afternoon and evening. This
activity is expected to largely be dry in nature, carrying the
threat of lightning, and gusty erratic outflow winds. Coverage of
this activity will be highest on the high terrain.

A dry cold frontal passage will occur Wednesday night into
Thursday. Temperatures across northern Utah will cool around 10-15
degrees, and across southern Utah temperatures will cool up to
around 5 degrees. Daytime minimum relative humidity values will
remain very low, with widespread single digit to low teen values
into the weekend. Overnight recoveries will improve marginally, on
the order of 5-15% wetter than previous days. There is then
potential for another cold frontal passage Saturday or Sunday, but
models continue to diverge on specific details at this time.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for UTZ495>497.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Whitlam
AVIATION...Mahan
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity