171
FXUS65 KSLC 200440
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1040 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across most of Utah
  and southwest Wyoming continue through this upcoming week as
  monsoonal moisture remains in place.

- Flash flooding remains a concern across the region through at
  least Thursday, especially across southern Utah on Tuesday and
  northern Utah and southwest Wyoming on Wednesday.

- Hot daytime temperatures and warm overnight lows will lead to
  widespread Major HeatRisk across much of the Wasatch Front and
  northwest Utah on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers are once again waning tonight across the
region outside of some lingering convection across southeast Utah
that should taper off just after midnight. A typical monsoonal
pattern remains in place, defined by a broad ridge overhead. The
ridge is expected to amplify overhead on Monday, with
southeasterly flow aloft increasing across the region as a result.
While scattered showers develop once again Monday afternoon as
monsoon moisture remains in place, coverage will be a bit more
isolated with stronger steering flow aloft. As such, the flash
flood risk is lower across the region tomorrow, though a Marginal
Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across most of Utah and
southwest Wyoming still exists, given flash flooding remains a
threat if a strong cell develops over sensitive terrain.

The amplifying ridge on Monday will also yield a slight bump in
temperatures, with highs for northern Utah valleys breaking the
century mark once again. Given warm overnight lows Monday morning,
this will exacerbate heat impacts and raise the risk for heat
illnesses mainly across the Wasatch Front and Great Salt Lake
Desert.

The flash flood risk rises again Tuesday through Wednesday as the
ridge flattens in response to a trough moving into the Pacific
Northwest, bringing an additional surge of monsoonal moisture.
Main concern for Tuesday exists across southern Utah, while the
threat shifts across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming on
Wednesday as monsoonal moisture spreads northward. While moisture
lingers through the remainder of the week across the region, the
broad ridge begins to slide west through the latter half of the
week, introducing drier, more stable conditions which will limit
the potential for the daily convection chances to continue into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...There is a 10% chance of convection before 02Z Monday. NW
winds will otherwise shift SE around 04Z, with lingering high level
VFR cloud cover. Winds are then favored to shift back NW between 17-
19Z Monday. There is then approximately a 15-25% chance of showers
or thunderstorms impacting the terminal, generally mid to late
afternoon Monday. Any such activity will bring potential for
lightning, brief reduction to CIGS/VIS, and gusty erratic outflow
winds.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Like previous days anticipate
convection across the region to wane through 03Z or so, with remnant
outflows bringing potential for gusty and erratic wind gusts.
Otherwise, anticipate some lingering VFR cloud cover, thickest near
where convective coverage was highest (southern and central Utah),
with winds favored to settle out to a diurnally normal to light and
variable direction overnight. Monday will then will also see a
similar progression to previous days with afternoon
showers/thunderstorms developing, most widespread across southern to
central Utah. This will bring potential for lightning, periods of
heavy rain (and briefly reduced CIGS/VIS to MVFR or so), and gusty
erratic outflow winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal moisture remains across UT increasing
humidities while raising chances for showers and thunderstorms
across the state moderating fire weather conditions overall. Chances
for showers and thunderstorms remain elevated across central and
southern UT, and the Uintas ranging from 50-80%. A wetting rain
remains favored this afternoon across each mentioned location.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along higher terrain
parallel to I-15 each afternoon over the next several days around
1200-1400 with gusty outflow winds, heavy rainfall, and lightning.
Winds will generally remain light terrain driven / diurnal over the
next several days.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to midnight MDT Monday night for
     UTZ101>105.

     Flood Watch until midnight MDT Sunday night for UTZ122>128.

WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Whitlam
AVIATION...Warthen
FIRE WEATHER...Worster

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity