821
FXUS65 KSLC 300456
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1056 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wrap-around rain showers continue across far southeast Utah
  tonight before moving out of the region Wednesday morning.

- High pressure develops across the western US through the latter
  half of the week, resulting in a gradual warming trend through
  the weekend.

- While chances remain low at this time (~20% or less), there is
  potential for moisture to return to southern Utah early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper-level low continues to progress eastward
across Arizona this evening, eventually phasing with Hurricane
Polo overnight into Wednesday morning. As these system phase
together, a deformation axis develops across the Four Corners
region, combining with wrap-around moisture to result in an
invigoration in rain showers across this area. High resolution
guidance indicates most of the activity will be focused along and
southeast of Glen Canyon. A general lack of instability will
likely keep rainfall in this area more stratiform in nature,
though isolated embedded heavier cores are possible especially
in areas near the Arizona border early Wednesday morning.

Northwesterly flow developing on the heels of the exiting system
ushers in a much drier airmass across Utah and southwest Wyoming
on Wednesday. A high pressure ridge is expected to strengthen
across the western US through the remainder of the week, resulting
in limited precipitation chances and a gradual warming trend
through the weekend and into early next week. Highs are expected
to peak on Monday around 10 degrees above seasonal averages.

A bit more uncertainty in the forecast exists early next week,
with around 20% of ensemble members suggesting the potential for a
shortwave digging into the region to bring increased moisture
across southern Utah that could bring more active weather.
The Eastern Pacific remains very active with several tropical
disturbances and systems already in place; the eventual
progression of these systems will heavily impact how our forecast
evolves over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal through
the forecast period. Dry and stable conditions with mostly clear
skies will continue. Light west to northwesterly winds will
continue through most of the TAF period. However, due to drainage
from nearby mountains, the flow at the terminal could switch to
southerly or vary at times.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist at
all TAFs sites through the forecast period. Dry and stable
conditions with light northerly winds will prevail at all sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop
across primarily southern UT through 12-2PM and persist through
the late evening hours as tropical moisture continues to work its
way north. The threat for flash flooding exists across southern UT
once again today, with a particular emphasis for interests located
along the AZ border, such as the Telegraph Flats.

Starting tomorrow, high pressure builds in bringing mild
and dry conditions to UT. This is forecast to persist through the
weekend, with temperatures warming slightly above normals as well.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Whitlam
AVIATION...Tekoe
FIRE WEATHER...Worster

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity