153
FXUS65 KSLC 112203
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
403 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...In the wake of Wednesday`s disturbance, dry and mild
conditions develop and are maintained into the weekend. These
values look to peak around Sunday, with forecast highs generally
around 10 to 20 degrees above climatological normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...Afternoon mid level water
vapor loop shows a compact shortwave trough currently rippling by
near the Idaho/Utah border region. Combination of sufficient
moisture (PWATs around 100-150% of normal), forcing from the
shortwave, and diurnally driven instability in turn has resulted
in the development of isolated to scattered convection. This
activity has been primarily focused on the Idaho side of the
border closer to the parent shortwave, but have noted some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms forming and
drifting off the terrain at areas further south throughout Utah.
Visible satellite and radar trends also show some increasing
towering to the cumulus field across Box Elder County, so would at
least anticipate some increase to activity more locally. This
idea seems to be somewhat supported in CAMs, with activity then
decreasing in coverage and intensity later on through the evening
hours. Given excellent boundary layer mixing, very warm
temperatures, and fairly dry subcloud layers, anything that does
develop will carry a gusty outflow wind threat. SPC mesoanalysis
shows widespread DCAPE values ~1200-1800 J/kg accordingly. Any
cell nearer the Idaho border that can sufficiently mature will
also carry a hail threat, given the increased effective shear
nearer the shortwave.

For Thursday afternoon, will maintain some weak advection of
shortwave energy overhead across northern Utah, albeit much less
marked than the compact/robust wave of Wednesday. The environment
doesn`t appear too dissimilar though, once again featuring a warm
and well mixed profile with high DCAPE values accordingly.
Moisture does appear to be trending downward however, and
increasingly confined nearer the Idaho border, so think coverage
will be further confined areas generally along/north of the I-80
corridor. Given the aforementioned environment though, once again
would anticipate something of a gusty microburst wind threat in
whatever convection is able to sufficiently mature. Activity
should then once again quickly decrease through the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Friday), Issued 354 AM MDT...
 A calm, dry, and hot period appears increasingly likely as we
head into the weekend and into early next week. Strong ridging
will build over the four corners providing strong subsidence
leading to minimal rain chances for the extended forecast period.
Anomalously hot temperatures also appear increasingly likely
across UT and southwest WY with temperatures around 10 degrees
above normal to kick off the forecast, gradually increasing to 15
degrees above normal bt this weekend into early next week for the
entire forecast area. With hot and dry conditions expected, fire
weather concerns increase areawide (see fire section for more
details).

The concern for fire weather continues as enhanced dry
southwesterlies aloft appear increasingly likely. With favorable
boundary layer mixing, these winds will make it down to the
surface with ease resulting in gusty afternoons across the
forecast area into early next week. To sum it all up, dry, hot,
and windy conditions are expected through the duration of the
extended forecast. Be sure to dress appropriately if recreating
outside, drink plenty of water, and limit time in the sun!

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Gusty south winds are expected to be the primary
flow through the next couple of hours over the KSLC terminal,
however, thunderstorms across northwest Utah have about a 60%
chance of developing an outflow that would allow for a transition
to gusty northwest winds around 01Z. There is about a 30% chance
that winds gust in excess of 40kts with this outflow. North flow
is expected through about 10Z before returning to south flow.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Gusty south to southwest winds
are expected across a majority of Utah and southwest Wyoming
through the remainder of the daylight hours. The exception will be
for areas around showers and thunderstorms where gusty and
erratic outflow wind gusts in excess of 40 mph will be possible.
Gusty southwest winds and isolated showers will diminish after
sundown, leading to mainly terrain driven flows overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A compact disturbance will continue to ripple by
the area to the north, resulting in isolated high-based
convection. This activity will be most focused at areas near the
Idaho border, and carry a threat of lightning and gusty erratic
outflow winds. This activity will decrease in strength and
coverage through late Wednesday evening. As the disturbance exits,
forecast supports increasingly mild, dry, and modestly breezy
conditions, along with deep mixing. Additionally, overnight
humidity recoveries will become increasingly poor, especially by
Friday night on into the weekend.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Worster
AVIATION...Webber
FIRE WEATHER...Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity