Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 140339
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
939 PM MDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A weakening upper level trough will move east across
Utah on Monday. High pressure aloft will return midweek, bringing
significantly warmer temperatures to the region. Cooler
temperatures and a more active weather pattern will develop by
late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (through Wednesday afternoon)...The splitting upper
level trough over the west coast states this evening will continue
east across the Great Basin Monday through Monday evening. The
downstream mid/high-level cloud cover over Utah this evening will
dissipate later tonight, then develop once again as the upper
trough passes through the state Monday afternoon and evening. The
generally dry/stable air mass already in place along with little
or no dynamic support for lift with the trough will preclude any
precip development Monday.

Building heights midweek will resume the warming trend across the
forecast area for Tuesday/Wednesday. Temperatures will climb back
to near normal Tuesday, then finally climb back above normal on
Wednesday.


.LONG TERM (starting Wednesday evening)...Model solutions
generally agree on the tail end of a northern stream trough
picking up a very weak cut-off low off the Pacific coast and
crossing the state on Thursday. The main impact of this wave will
be cooler temperatures...mainly over the north along with an
increase in clouds. Not out of the question for this system to
produce a mountain shower or two mainly Uintas and Wasatch
Thursday afternoon/evening.

The bigger story is wetter and colder temperatures for the weekend.
EPS and GEFS mean solutions are fairly consistent at bringing a more
potent system in by Saturday or Sunday. Individual solutions vary
quite a bit in timing and strength. Right now best rain/snow chances
are centered on Saturday afternoon and evening across the north and
along the central mountain spine. Snow levels are currently forecast
in the 6 to 7 thousand foot range Saturday falling to the 5 to 6
thousand foot level Sunday. Again these details along with the
timing and intensity of this system is quite uncertain at this time.
Anyone with plans to head into the high country this upcoming
weekend should keep up with the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions with ceilings well above 12 kft will
prevail at the SLC terminal throughout the current TAF period.
Light southeast winds will switch to the northwest around 20Z
Monday afternoon.

&&


.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.

WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 pm MDT Monday for WYZ277.

&&

$$

CONGER/MERRILL/BILLINGSLEY

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