021
FXUS65 KSLC 142207
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
307 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure continues to build over the region this weekend
bringing mild and dry conditions.

- Winds become south-southwesterly Sunday ahead of a series of
incoming systems bringing elevated winds and gusts to the area
through much of the week.

- Multiple chances for accumulating mountain snowfall exist this
week, with the Tuesday night through Thursday system bringing
significant snowfall to the majority of our mountains.

- The threat for valley snow continues to increase with the Tuesday
night through Thursday system for nearly all valley locations with
the exception of lower Washington county.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Sunny and pleasant conditions persist today through
Monday as ridging continues to build in, though this forecaster is
sure that many are fed up with a relatively modest winter so far.
However, these conditions are only temporary with quite an active
pattern looking to develop next week. Until then, spring like
conditions will yield temperatures around 10-15F above average for
much of the area through Monday.

On Monday, south-southwesterly winds pick up across UT and SW WY
ahead of our first incoming system as 700mb winds begin to
strengthen and mix down to the surface. A longwave trough will
progress inland across Southern CA, ejecting north and flattening
somewhat as a second trough dives down from the PNW. Despite this,
flow aloft isn`t expected to weaken much  Additionally, with
increasing moisture and ascent through the day, most valley
locations can expect to see rain develop in the late afternoon hours
with high terrain across the state beginning to see the onset of
snow. Snow will be contained to higher terrain as snow levels are
generally expected to range between 6500-7500ft as this first system
will be quite warm. With this storm, areas favored within a
southwesterly flow regime will more than likely end up on the higher
end range of the forecast, such as Brian Head and Provo Canyon.

Following the departure of the first wave, the aforementioned trough
diving down from the PNW will impact the area bringing potentially
more significant impacts to the forecast area starting Tuesday
night. While ascent and moisture quality isn`t forecast to be much
different than the first wave, this system will arrive with much
colder air aloft and quickly transition winds to northwesterly
following its departure. With northwest winds and 700mb temperatures
ranging from -14C to -17C on Thursday, this will give us our
first real shot at accumulating valley snow across the Wasatch
Front and most of our valley locations across the forecast area,
except for lower Washington county, obviously. Some valleys have a
higher chance of seeing more accumulations than others, such as
the I-15 corridor running from Beaver to Cedar City which has a
roughly 50- 70% chance of seeing 4" or greater Wednesday through
Thursday. For comparison, most of the Wasatch Front has around a
20-40% chance for 4" or greater over the same time period, with
benches having a higher probability. This is due to greater ascent
further south lingering over southern UT, closer to the trough
axis. Regardless, accumulating snowfall across the majority of our
valleys appears increasingly likely with this setup and amounts
may change as hi-res guidance begins to trickle in over the coming
days.

Prolonged northwest winds will create an extremely favorable
environment across most of our mountains for significant
accumulating snowfall, with a strong emphasis on the Bear River
Range and the Upper Cottonwoods. With this prolonged event running
from Monday through Thursday and perhaps Friday, this appears to be
the first event this season where we will refer to accumulations
across most of our mountains in feet rather than inches. There does
remain some uncertainty regarding if a brief lull occurs between the
two waves which would impact totals somewhat, though this will not
be too significant of a change given the favorable setup.

As we enter Friday, a couple lingering shortwaves may continue to
progress into the forecast area bringing continued isolated snow
showers to northern UT, albeit weaker as ascent continues to weaken
with decreasing moisture quality. Ridging appears to build back in,
though it remains uncertain with how long this will remain in place
for. Looking into the long range, ensemble cluster analysis does
indicate that the active period may continue with large scale
western troughing as a common solution among most members.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period. Northwest winds will switch back to the southeast between 02-
03Z, and become gusty mid morning Sunday. With an increase in mid
level cloud cover, the chance for MVFR VIS developing late tonight
is less than 10%.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will prevail
across the area through the TAF period. Diurnally driven winds will
continue through tonight, before gusty south winds develop after 16Z
Sunday. With an increase in mid level cloud cover, the chance for
MVFR VIS developing late tonight at northern terminals is less than
10%, and near 0% at southern Utah terminals.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Worster
AVIATION...Seaman

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity