Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 231023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
423 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will expand east across the Great
Basin through Wednesday. A series of weather disturbances will
move over the top of the ridge and impact mainly northern and
western Utah during the latter half of the week.


.SHORT TERM (Until 00z Saturday)...The well-defined upper low
along the Arizona/Mexico border will continue to spread some
moisture back into southern/eastern Utah today. This moisture
along with decent daytime heating will spawn addition convection
across mainly central and southern Utah this afternoon. High
pressure aloft nosing east across the Great Basin along with the
loss of diurnal heating will bring a quick end to any lingering
convective precip early this evening.

Looking at generally dry conditions Wednesday through early
Thursday with the low-amplitude upper ridge in place across the
Great Basin. Shortwaves moving east through the northern Rockies
over the top of the upper ridge will bring clouds to northern and
western Utah, with an outside chance of a few showers/storms
forming near the Utah/Idaho border along the southern end of these
passing shortwaves late Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Lowering heights as a result of stronger shortwaves moving through
the northern Rockies/northern Great Basin late Thursday/Friday
will bring an improved chance for convective precip to mainly
northern and western Utah. Friday looks to be the best of the two
days as a cyclonic westerly flow and increased moisture settle in
to the area during peak heating Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM (After 00Z Saturday)...Slight transition for the
beginning of the long term period, with flow aloft trending slightly
cyclonic across the north as a short wave carves into the northern
Rockies beginning early next weekend. Meanwhile, globals remain
consistent in regards to a closed low churning off the SoCal coast.
Presence of these features will maintain a confluent flow over
Nevada, and overhead, with just enough moisture for diurnal
convection each day through the weekend in the north. Southern
portions will remain a bit more influenced by the remnant ridge,
with dry conditions and above seasonal norm temps the norm.

Focus shifts to the aforementioned closed low early next week, this
as a slow eastward translation will eventually drive opening and
phasing with the northern branch over the southern Great Basin/Rocky
Mtn states during the Mon/Tue timeframe. Outside of a net boost in
areal coverage of convection days 6 into 7, not much to note with
this weakening trough at time. Expanded PoPs and focused a bit
further south/east tied closer to the (perceived) remnant


.AVIATION...Operational weather concerns are expected to remain
minimal at the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Light and
variable winds currently in place are expected to become a
prevailing (but light) southeasterly wind within the 10-16z window
prior to shifting to the northwest for the remainder of the day. VFR
under largely clear skies will be maintained.





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