Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 292158

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
358 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front continues through the region through the
remainder of the evening, bringing chances for isolated showers
and thunderstorms over the northern two-thirds of the area. Cooler
conditions prevail tomorrow alongside largely dry conditions.
Warmer conditions return heading through the weekend, allowing for
a return to above average temperatures.


.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Friday)...A cold frontal boundary,
albeit weak, will continue to push through the forecast area
through the remainder of the day. Along this boundary, isolated
convection will continue to pop and bring an isolated threat of
strong outflow wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. Most of the threat
of these strong winds will be confined to areas south of the
boundary where the extremely dry sub-cloud environment remains.
That said, model guidance indicates a dry sub-cloud environment
will remain in place, however, the depth of the dry layer will be
much less than the areas south of the boundary... providing less
opportunity for acceleration of downdrafts. Heading through the
evening hours any convection that remains will diminish as heating
is lost, eliminating the overall threat of strong outflow winds.

The trough associated with the cold front will continue to
track eastward tomorrow, allowing high pressure to reestablish
over the eastern Great Basin region. That said, cooler overhead
temperatures will remain in place which will help to bring cooler
temperatures across much of the forecast area tomorrow. Daytime
highs will be right around seasonal normals for southern Utah and
about 5 degrees below normal across northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming. Largely dry conditions are anticipated across the region
tomorrow, however, enough heating and low level moisture may
remain in place over far southern Utah to pop an isolated shower
off the highest terrain (specifically in the Boulder Mountain

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Friday), Issued 430 AM MDT...
The beginning of the long term
portion of the forecast and subsequent end of the work week will be
punctuated by transient shortwave ridging across the region. This
will usher in a brief warming trend, which is expected to briefly
peak on Saturday, when temperatures will rise to around 10F above
normal from central Utah northward to around 5F above normal across
southern Utah. There is good consensus in the passage of a mainly
dry cold front for Sunday, which will drop temperatures down a
couple of degrees as well as bring the risk for isolated showers and
storms across northern Utah and SW Wyoming both Saturday and Sunday
afternoon/early evening. Brief, transient shortwave ridging then
builds across the area Monday before potentially another grazing
trough and associated mainly dry cold front swings across northern
Utah and SW Wyoming late Monday into Tuesday. This feature is
represented by roughly 3/4 of the model solution space, whereas
previous runs were building a ridge of high pressure into the region
by this time. That said, nearly all available ensembles and their
associated members build a strong ridge across the PacNW and
Northern Rockies from the middle of next week into at least next
weekend. The strength of this ridge is challenging 30-year model
climatology by the end of next week, which could portend record-
challenging temperatures by the end of next week, particularly across
northern Utah.


.AVIATION...KSLC...Isolated showers could impact KSLC mainly
between 23-01z, with erratic outflow winds up to 40kts possible and
a 15% chance of lightning. Gusty northwest winds will continue,
until roughly 02z...though gusts up to 20kts could linger until 06z
(30% chance). Winds will likely remain light out of the northwest
through the overnight hours, though there is a 25% chance they
switch to light and southeasterly. VFR conditions will prevail.

thunderstorms will continue through roughly 03z, though a few
isolated showers are possible through 06z just north of KCDC-KBCE.
Any showers will produce gusty and erratic outflow winds,
potentially reaching 50kts in isolated areas with the strongest
gusts. A cold front will continue to push through the area,
transitioning any gusty southwesterly winds to gusty and
northwesterly. VFR conditions will prevail.


.FIRE WEATHER...A weak cold frontal boundary pushes through the state of Utah
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours today, bringing dry
and breezy conditions ahead of the front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are also expected along the front, generating pockets of strong winds in excess
of 40 mph. Tomorrow, the trough associated with the cold front will exit the
region and allow high pressure to build back into the Great Basin region.

Under the influence of high pressure, surface temperatures will increase late
in the week and through the weekend. Highs will reach around 5-10 degrees above
climatological normals with the most significant warming anticipated across
the northern half of Utah. Warmer and drier weather persists heading into early
next week, however, an active weather pattern across the PacNW region could
bring potential for another weak cold front during the first half of next week.
Thereafter, high pressure will dominate the region and bring above average
temperatures alongside mostly dry conditions.





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