Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 170438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
938 PM MST Sat Feb 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Cool temperatures and occasional snow showers will
linger through the weekend and into early next week as broad
troughing continues across the West. A stronger storm system may
impact the state late next week.


.DISCUSSION...A mean longwave trough over the western CONUS this
evening will remain in place through much of next week, becoming
more amplified during the coming days. In the meantime, a subtle
shortwave disturbance is crossing northern Utah at this time, and
has been the driver of the band of showers that is currently moving
across portions of the Wasatch Front and adjacent mountains. These
showers will continue to bring light snow to the area, winding down
by 06z. Upstream, another weak disturbance is moving into southwest
Utah from southern Nevada. This should result in a few showers
across southwest Utah overnight, with brief light snow possible
even down in the St.George area.

The next notable piece of shortwave energy embedded in the mean
trough is currently evident as a closed circulation on satellite off
the PacNW coast. This low will dive southeast into northern Nevada
tomorrow afternoon. Models suggest that a vort max kicking out ahead
of this low will form another closed circulation across northwest
Utah by late tomorrow afternoon or early evening, while the main low
will dive south towards Arizona.

In association with the vort max and circulation over Utah, shower
activity is expected to increase tomorrow afternoon into Monday
morning, with particular focus on southern and central Utah and
northwest Utah. A period of easterly flow would limit precipitation
for the Wasatch Front and adjacent mountains. However, the
tightening easterly MSLP gradient (up to 6mb between KRKS-KOGD
Monday morning) will allow for gusty canyon winds along the Wasatch
Front tomorrow night through Monday morning. With lack of support
near ridgetops, the winds should remain localized to near canyon
areas and may not be strong enough to warrant wind highlights.

The airmass will continue to cool Monday into Tuesday before the
next storm system affects the area later in the week.


.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions to persist through the night at
the SLC terminal with southerly winds. Occasional CIGS below 6kft
will be possible through 07z. There is a 20 percent chance of brief
low MVFR to IFR conditions in snow showers through 07z.





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